Grains Now Require Fresh Bullish News

[charliep]

At the Informa Economics outlook
conference. My take aways.

World economies improving but Europe the
biggest unknown.

World corn and soybean supplies
extremely tight until new crop becomes
available. That is South American
supplies in the case of soybeans and US
corn. Wheat a follower.

If these regions get average crops, look
for $10/bu soybeans and $4/bu corn.
Wheat $7 to $8/bu range.

A weird fact. Brazil will pass US corn
exports this year and become the world's
largest corn exporter.

Place your bets and take your chances.

[charliep]

Need to check the presentations on my
comment on Brazil corn exports. USDA
shows Brazil at 16 MMT and Argentina at
21 MMT versus US at 29 MMT exports.

[hedgehog]

uk is now saying 2013 wheat harvest will be 5 million tonnes short again due to wet cold autumn, and that is dependent on conditions returning to "normal" which is pretty unlikely at present.
consequently bull market is on fire here, stores getting empty and futures at "unprecedented levels"

[bucket]

hedgehog

IS that bearish info? Where will the UK go to get supplies?

My guess is Canada and the US.

Warburton must be making a killing considering they are not paying that much for Canadian wheat right now.

[hedgehog]

bucket, if the mississipi is closed, it has to come from canada or australia.
the bears are all in hibernation here.
prices here at import parity for first time in 40 odd yrs or more

[bucket]

ANd how is that australian crop looking so far for quality?

My guess, the australian crop is going to need most of the canadian crop to blend it up. Or the aus crop is going to lower priced markets and where would that be right now???

[cottonpicken]

The fiscal cliff can not be dealt with,we already went
over it,the major deflationary forces will be fought
with money printing or default or both non of them
support currency purchasing power.

100 years from now the term cost push inflation will
be studied by young economist's in universities
around the world.

John maynard keynes corpse will be exhumed and
shot into the darkest corner of space.

[bucket]

Might be china because they have bought a shitload of canadian grain already.

Buy poorer australian grain to keep the peasants happy and their bellies full and resell the canadian wheat for a nice profit.

Can't help but think flaten and ward must of been involved in the chinese purchases.

[hedgehog]

i believe aussie protein is low, but i dont think there are any low priced markets now

[errolanderson]

cotton . . . agree that the fiscal cliff cannot be dealt with.

The U.S. has already hit a brick wall. There is no way to fix this mess. Do you pay the piper now or do you drag it out a generation? Politicians will chose the latter. Nobody wants to be accountable in the gov't world.

The U.S. money printing button has now been pushed 3 times . . . with less and less impact each time. QE3 may be looked back in history as a major failure and will make little difference to the U.S. crisis (IMO). Germany tried to print their way out of economic crisis after WW11. It did not turn out well.

Bernanke can only call wolf so many times. And both his impact and term are likely running out.

To me, commodity deflation is a real risk between 2013 to 2015. And this will sting those with heavy personal and business debt loads.