Grains Now Require Fresh Bullish News

[bucket]

mcfarms


To be clear, because you guys have noticed that I am a little dense, was that remark pointed at me?

[errolanderson]

bucket . . . enjoy comments and enjoy our bantering. Someday, maybe we'll have a beer together.

You have good points, This is my point of view . . . . Grain markets will rally, but they won't go back to the good 'ol days of summer. Those days are long gone without a fresh bout of bullish news. If that news arrives then yes, prices will go stormin higher.
But right now, grain markets including wheat, corn and soybeans are nearing technical highs. Remember, the world we live in is a basket case financially . . . it will affect commodities. And my view for commodities in 2013 is a tough year.

The fiasco called U.S. politics can harm commodity markets worldwide (IMO).

The Mississippi situation, (if closed) is quite bearish the cash basis. Basis levels in the Midwest are already widening. The futures may be another question. From the bull camp, inability to get grain to port may rally the futures or not? That's my question.

As far as Mcfarms . . . I'm assuming you are quoting yourself. I don't really care if you treat me like the whipping stome for some market reality. Have at er . . . But if you are the last to sell in this market enviroment, you might not be selling in the top third of average yearly prices in this crop year.

Errol

[mcfarms]

Bucket no
Errol

Actually I got hailed out and I mean hailed out,within 50000 of my coverage hailed out . But I am marketing a bit with family members , but before that I was 75 percent sold on barley through malt contracts with an act of god. Had a little wheat like 20 percent sold @ 9.56 which family members were happy to take off my hands. Canola I had basis contracts and have sold what I produced. As for the other farm we covered my 6.50 malt contracts with that barley, have spring wheat at 40 percent and am holding because the A) the fiscal cliff thing will be dealt with becasue it has to be. and b) the worst winter wheat conditions in what 40 years. so I'm willing to take a flyer on that one. Winter Wheat is 60 percent sold at 7.65 Peas we are mostly sold on at between 8 and 9 would have liked to sit on some for spring but got out voted. Canola I have pushed for a little higher level of sales in late spet /oct but wasn't done ( not my grain not my final decision)
The shitty thing is that I pretty much called this year perfectly and in the end it really sucks that I really have very little of my own grain to capitalize on these prices our crops were very very good and the lumps will take time to fade. But my marketing plan on the remainder that I am working on has been pretty good, I hope I can be on the market in future years as good as I was this.



And you know what, I am saying right here I think you're going to be eventually right because the factors you point to are overhanging this market and one of these days these economies are going to implode ( read collapse by Jarod M Diamond if you haven't) and the odds of year after year of all these production problems in the world continuing on are probaly starting to tilt against us and though it may shock you I do believe prices come fall may likely will be lower than where we are today on Barley and Canola . I do believe there is enough production issues in wheat that we have the greatest upside potential there ( and bean oil) but do believe barley canola?and feed wheat will be lower in late 13 than late 12. But among risk management and production theres also a little thing called timing. And thats what gets you those sales in the top third.

Trust me in this place youre a brave man to take a position on the markets and I have tried over the years I have posted here to as much just drop in pieces of info others may find helpfull in making their own decisions both bull and bear, new sites good articles etc. and yah I'd love to be the eternal Bull , kinda makes what I do for a living a whole lot funner and worth getting up on the morning when a person's optomistic about things.

Don't mind me I just have felt all summer that like bucket the bull had been just the fatter kid on the tetter totter than the bear. and you haven't so I've had to poke you .
If I come on here and make a call and it is wrong trust me these guys will be all over me and if I blew it I'll own it.
Youre a good man for using your own name ( thought you could be Charlie posing as Erroll Anderson or a hot 18 year old farm girl ( it is the internet after all) But you have to realize , you've chosen to make a living making these calls and theres some responsibilty you carry with your calls and you have to accept that if you do wander in here and make a call be prepared to get a little gentle abuse when you miss it.
And you have to admit you have been like the goth kid at school all year.

Cheers

[charliep]

At the Informa Economics outlook
conference. My take aways.

World economies improving but Europe the
biggest unknown.

World corn and soybean supplies
extremely tight until new crop becomes
available. That is South American
supplies in the case of soybeans and US
corn. Wheat a follower.

If these regions get average crops, look
for $10/bu soybeans and $4/bu corn.
Wheat $7 to $8/bu range.

A weird fact. Brazil will pass US corn
exports this year and become the world's
largest corn exporter.

Place your bets and take your chances.

[charliep]

Need to check the presentations on my
comment on Brazil corn exports. USDA
shows Brazil at 16 MMT and Argentina at
21 MMT versus US at 29 MMT exports.

[hedgehog]

uk is now saying 2013 wheat harvest will be 5 million tonnes short again due to wet cold autumn, and that is dependent on conditions returning to "normal" which is pretty unlikely at present.
consequently bull market is on fire here, stores getting empty and futures at "unprecedented levels"

[bucket]

hedgehog

IS that bearish info? Where will the UK go to get supplies?

My guess is Canada and the US.

Warburton must be making a killing considering they are not paying that much for Canadian wheat right now.

[hedgehog]

bucket, if the mississipi is closed, it has to come from canada or australia.
the bears are all in hibernation here.
prices here at import parity for first time in 40 odd yrs or more

[bucket]

ANd how is that australian crop looking so far for quality?

My guess, the australian crop is going to need most of the canadian crop to blend it up. Or the aus crop is going to lower priced markets and where would that be right now???

[cottonpicken]

The fiscal cliff can not be dealt with,we already went
over it,the major deflationary forces will be fought
with money printing or default or both non of them
support currency purchasing power.

100 years from now the term cost push inflation will
be studied by young economist's in universities
around the world.

John maynard keynes corpse will be exhumed and
shot into the darkest corner of space.

[bucket]

Might be china because they have bought a shitload of canadian grain already.

Buy poorer australian grain to keep the peasants happy and their bellies full and resell the canadian wheat for a nice profit.

Can't help but think flaten and ward must of been involved in the chinese purchases.

[hedgehog]

i believe aussie protein is low, but i dont think there are any low priced markets now