Marketing wheat, durum canola

[bucket]

So I have been pricing small amounts for the fall of 2013. The "off the combine" stuff that I start with. The crop that is a little tough that can be blended with what the elevator has left over or what may be coming in dry in a couple of days.

So far the wheat has been priced at net 8.25, the durum nets 8.36 and canola at 12.17 for september delivery. And some flax at 13 for october.

Does this seem like an ok start? I would say I haven't went over 10 percent of production yet but would it be wise to push to 25 percent sold.

I think there is still some upside for wheat, but the errol (bear) side of me says everyone is growing wheat next year.

Thinking the canola industry is going have to stay over the 12 mark to get the acreage they require.

What are others thoughts on this.

And peas I can't get interested in until at least 7.50 for new crop.

[Hopperbin]

Noticed ADM here now has free storage on immediate delivery of Canola, storage till Nov. 2013 if I am correct. Thinking their basis could use improving and would demand a much improved basis and would want to ask for moisture blending before I am interested. Would not want to deliver without the basis locked on delivery. Their dockage can be erratic in my oppinion so that is a neg also. But at least its showing they are trying to get deliveries.

[farmaholic]

Bucket: Superstore is selling a 450 gram bag of whole green peas for $2.28. That is approximately $138.00/bu. I think I left some money on the table somewhere. Not a lot of value adding to a whole green pea in a small plastic bag. Farmers contribution to that value is about 10% now.

[bucket]

hopper

I am getting worried about these deals on free storage and pricing later.

It solves their supply problem and when they are covered they can drop the price.

Would much prefer for these guys to bid to the right price given the supply/demand fundamentals. If they don't start bidding for acres they could be having their maintenence shutdown earlier and longer than they expected.

If your canola is in the bin and has been checked then what does the carrot of free storage do for you? IMHO they should be paying for your diligence and investment in bins that they didn't want to build.

farmaholic

I thought I was the only one to look at the stores and make my blood doil.

[bucket]

And at current price levels for canola, rationing is not taking place. So even if statscan and the "trade" thinks there is a 14.5 mmt (I am in the 13.5 MMT camp) canola crop for 2012 its going to be used up by June 2013.

[Rareearth]

Bucket your thoughts are right on. No I haven't
priced 2013 yet, jan or feb? Any one can grow
green peas, the challenge is marketing,
distribution and financing. Not unlike those who
want to build a fertilizer plant.

[farmaholic]

RareEarth: I need to be farming where you are if growing crops is a sure thing and isn't challenging. Weather, disease, pests, weeds, even marketing and financing for some, seem to create a bit of a challenge here.

[charliep]

Just curious why everyone thinks the
trade is dealing with a 14 plus MMT
canola crop. I would observe basis
levels and signals and this would
indicate everyone is very aware of the
pace of crush and exports relative to
supply. The same issues apply to
soybeans. Play the market as you want
but don't assume it is stupid/wrong. The
are reasons for the recent decline
including users that are comfortable
with their forward booked positions and
spec/funds that won't chase in the
current world.

Whatever position you take on 2013, you
are going to be either really right or
really wrong. No in between. Perhaps to
your original point around beginning
2013 pricing. A profitable place to
start pricing.

[Rareearth]

Alcoholic build a canola crusher if you think you
can change the market. Fact is there is better
price discovery today than ever before.

[bucket]

charliep

From the business recorder today:

" ....Trade estimates for canola production ranged by more than 1 million tonnes, from as small as 13 million tonnes to as large as 14.4 million. Canada is the world's biggest grower and exporter of the oilseed, used mainly in vegetable oil...."

[bucket]

ah shit, there is an article in the Star Phoenix about increased wheat acres next year and fewer canola acres.

[furrowtickler]

Rareearth - your post should say "anyone can grow yellow peas"

[farmaholic]

There are many special crops that have
no price discovery other than getting on
the phone or computer and doing your
homework, neither of which I am opposed
to doing. How many of the crops we grow
have a functioning price discovery
(traded futures) in Canada? I am not
against anyone making a profit but it
was interesting to see what the price of
that 1 pound of whole green peas @ $2.28
converted to on a dollars per bushel
basis. I have no interest in building
a canola crusher but a distillery maybe,
Sincerely yours, Alcoholic.

[Rareearth]

Or pay some one that has access to better
information that you and I can't find on our own,
or cheaper yet listen carefully to Larry and Errol.
And by the way thanks guys for the insight, right
or wrong at least I have more information.

[fjlip]

INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL NOVEMBER SUMMARY...

Global ****seed/canola production is forecast to decline by 2% y/y, to a four-year low of 58.9m t.

World use in 2012/13 is expected to fall by 4% y/y, to a three-year low, owing to tight supplies.

With thin availabilities and high prices likely to discourage imports by key buyers, global trade is projected to contract by 15% y/y.

Looking ahead to the 2013/14 crop, EU ****seed plantings are tentatively forecast to rebound, encouraged by high prices, and led by Germany.

In Canada, by far the largest exporter, output is expected to drop steeply, by 8% y/y, to 13.4m t. This is despite a large expansion in plantings, and mainly results from heavily reduced yield potential in Western Canada due to poor weather.

World ****seed/canola use in 2012/13 is projected to contract by 4%, to 59.8m t, reflecting tight availabilities. In Canada, given the disappointing crop, consumption is expected to decline by 9%, to 6.7m t. The overall fall in use will be concentrated in a smaller crush, the largest component of demand, seen dropping to 57.3m t (59.9m).