Traders and analysts estimate Statistics Canada Wed numbers.

[samhill]

My comment would be that the world is on a food
precipice, never mind the fiscal consequences. All
counting on SA to provide stability, and may very well
occur. But conditions elsewhere are iffy, other than
Canada, we are in relatively good condition.
Canadian soybean crush reported to be very high, with
$100/tonne margins, likely not a big factor, but an
indicator.

[charliep]

Not sure on the required profit side. Will depend a lot on the crushing plant including efficiency, capacity utilization, size/age, etc. so I am not sure there would be one number for every plant. Your numbers are what I have heard over time for a cash crush margin.

On the Toronto canola price/basis, my source is ARD's Informa Economics subscription publication on world vegetable oils. Not sure (maybe others have access) to a public source of this information. Also need a better understanding of basis as applies to canola and a recognition that this market is only one of the many markets canola oil would sold to - each with its own basis.

During the 1990's and early to mid 2000's, the basis was zero to 4 cents/lb over soybean oil futures for canola oil on the posted Toronto canola oil price. The basis in the late 2000's to date have been more like 8 to 12 cents over.

[charliep]

I looked at the graphs to see if quoted in US or Canadian dollars. Some of the change could exchange rate related.