Big area of usa still in severe drought.

[buzz]

Anyone else see this video of us drought monitor maps?

http://www.farms.com/Commentaries/video-eleven-months-of-drought-maps-57392.aspx

Not hearing too much about this situation, i was surprised when i watched this video.

This should support 2013 grain prices???

I am I missing something?

[hedgehog]

its being hushed up bigtime

[jamesb]

who is hushing it up ?
Any in the farm business sector should find it very easy to track this. I follow
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
I like many of you are tempted to plant alot of wheat next year. Farmers will grow their way out of these high prices.I do think the winter wheat crop is not going to be a bin buster. In the southeast lots finally poked out of the ground just before the snow came. we dont get winter wheat conditions anymore untill spring so it will be interesting

[charliep]

I would look at KCBT spreads. Market is paying partial carry out into new crop.

US HRW areas not in good condition. Spring rains are what determines yields however. Tell me about March and yields become easier to forecast.

[joedales]

Here is the video. Joe

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[bucket]

Maybe some the experts on this site don't understand droughts.

If the winter wheat crop is dead before winter or it doesn't sprout, it doesn't make a crop.

If the soil is 10 inches short of moisture and it rains 1 inch, the soil is still short 9 inches of moisture.

The US may get spring rains and the traders and experts can move the market with their bullshit but a crop it does not make.

A corn plant needs a barrel of rain to make a reasonable yield. That can come from soil maoisture (hint: there is none in the soils where there is a current drought, hence the calling of it a drought) or from spring moisture ( hint: rain).

If the spring rains come to the degree required spring planting will ultimately be delayed. If they don't come and all acres get planted into dry ground some of the farmers better be building arcs because that is what it will take to make a trendline yield next year in the states.

Basically they will need our 2010 worth of rain to produce a trendline corn crop. And if they do that, by the time its harvested every enduser will be out of corn.

[westsider]

Bucket, Just a heads up on winter wheat. Vernalization does not need much water to occur. if the seed absorbs any amount of moisture in the fall it occurs and it can also happen in an average to cool spring.

make a call down to southern sask where guys wrote their crops off last winter but were into 50 - 70 bu crops this fall

not bad.

[bucket]

Southern Saskatchewan wasn't in the worst drought in forty years last year and the winter co-operated pretty well.

The winter wheat ratings are the worst since they started keeping track more than 30 years ago.

I hear what you are saying westsider but the wheat crop in the states is getting zero moisture and is drying out with above normal temperatures.

[charliep]

I guess Mother Nature will be the final arbitrator of
this discussion. The market isn't prepared to go
higher right now with issues around a slow start to
North American exports the major negative in the
short. The market isn't playing the weather card right
now. Take a look at any recent chart and it ain't
pretty if you're bullish. Place your bets and take your
chances.

[malleefarmer]

2012 Worst drought in history reduced
soy prod by 4% wow!. Corn prod down 13%,
big deal and wheat about 6%

I take current rainfall deficiet causing
massive yeild decline in usa with a
grain of salt a yeild decline yes but
massive nah

the bloody us crops live and die 4 times
and still produce the goods

plenty of places in australia have had 3
inches of rain during growing season and
produced 30 to 40 bushls of wheat this
year, wheat breeding has gone ahead i
leaps and bounds in term of
droughttolerance and heat stress