stats Canada comes to same conclusion I said back in July!

[SASKFARMER3]

November estimates of production of
principal field crops

2010 (final) 2011 (final)
November 2012 (final) 2010 to 2011
2011 to November 2012
thousands of tonnes % change
Total wheat 23 300r 25 288r 27 205
8.5 7.6
Spring wheat 17 529r 18 019r 18 845
2.8 4.6
Durum wheat 3 025 4 172 4 627
37.9 10.9
Winter wheat 2 746r 3 097r 3 733
12.8 20.5
Canola 12 789r 14 608r 13 310 14.2
-8.9
Corn for grain 12 043r 11 359r 13 060
-5.7 15.0
Barley 7 627r 7 892r 8 012 3.5
1.5
Soybeans 4 445r 4 298r 4 930
-3.3 14.7
Dry field peas 3 018 2 502r 2 830
-17.1 13.1
Oats 2 451r 3 158r 2 684 28.8
-15.0
Lentils 1 920r 1 523r 1 473 -20.6
-3.3
Flaxseed 419r 399r 489
-4.7 22.6
Fall rye 237r 241r 337
1.7 39.4
Total dry beans 254r 163r 274
-35.9 68.9

[bucket]

SF3

What was your high tech methodology that you used to come to that conclusion in July?

Its funny that we dumbshit farmers can banter on agriville and come to those conclusions by looking at our crops and noticing aster yellows, disease, flower blasting, and a wind storm but it doesn't mean shit unless some university grad making calls in Novemeber at supper time asking what is the numbers for the farm. Then its official.

This number may get smaller yet as statscan will have a tough time finding the usual half million tonnes in June or July 2013.

13.3 mmt for 2012 and lower acres for 2013. All things considered I think 2013 production will barely make 13.5 mmt.

[ASRG]

I've put this out here before (usually get abused for it!).....but will again.

For easy figuring I'll base this on 100 cows.

100 cows produce 94 calves (6% loss-opens/dead calves)
47 strs. X 600 lb X $1.42= $40,044
47 hfrs X 570 lb X $1.30 = $34,827
avg gross on 100 cows =$74,871 ($748/cow)

Costs:
winter feed/bedding- 200 days X $1.40 = $280 $20 bedding = $300
pasture-165 days X $1 = $165
machinery cost to feed $20
TOTAL FEED/bedding= $485

Salt and min $20
fence/corral repair $15
breeding $35
vet/ID $20
selling costs/trucking $25
Int on $1400 cow/year (3.5%)= $49
Depreciation on cow ($1400-salvage $1150-over 9 calves)=$39
cow death loss 1.5% = $21
TOTAL COST/cow $709

NET/cow ($748-$709)= $39

On the 100 cows $3900. On 300 cows=$11,700.

Walmart greeter $10/hr X 40 hr =$400 X 50 wks= $20,000.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yea that is funny!
Real farmers looking at their crops can come up with a conclusion early in the
year yet it takes a Professional to tell
the world what we have.
I have always said we need a JD tour like
the USA has with a group of Farmers Grain
buyers and Professionals to tour the three
provinces. That would get us real close.
Oh well lets look at next year now.

[bucket]

What's worse is that we tell the world.

I was trying to find the actual flax production numbers for the ukraine for 2012. Pretty tough to do. Still haven't found it.

But google "flax production in Canada" and it's at your finger tips.

[charliep]

<a href="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/121205/dq121205a-eng.pdf">Statcan December 5</a>

Just curious. Has the canola market reflected the smaller canola crop since mid summer?

Futures down but what has basis done?

How far out of line canola prices get with the rest of the oilseed complex and soybean oil?

[bucket]

charliep

Nope, as I have earlier said I was selling canola off the combine for 14 bucks a bushel at 3.5 green.

[errolanderson]

Canola production number came within industry range of expectations of 13 to 14.4 million MT.A key now is to see a recovery in the crush.

True bullish numbers in this morning's report appears to be barley and oats.

[SASKFARMER3]

Sold 20 percent canola off the combine and some
20000 bushels of hrs.
USDA is out on corn and soy. Time will tell.
Cinderella use to trade for a premium. Now the
retarded sister of soy trades for a discount.

[charliep]

Just curious which market is hotter? Meal or oil? What is the relative oil share of canola versus soybeans? What is the meal share?

[errolanderson]

SF3 - Canola needs crushers to be able to
smile once again. If crushers start to
make money again at these price levels,
then futures are apt to rally.

But that isn't the case right now . . . .

[bucket]

Well if the canola continues lower, those crushers may be pretty unhappy when they have even less to crush next year.

Its pretty simple, in alot of the prairies 8.50 wheat makes more sense to grow than sub 12 dollar canola. Not just from an economic point but agrinomics as well.

Besides as SF3 has asked numerous times what happened to the premium over soybeans?

[LWeber]

Bucket: Send me an email for flax stats...

[bucket]

Weber

Done.

But I will ask the same questions here.

I am wondering what the flax production number was in the Ukraine for 3 reasons:

1. If there cereal harvest was lower due to drought, then logic tells me so was their flax harvest.

2. If the above is partly true, then does Europe finally come back to Canada for flax.

3. If 1 and 2 are true, given Canada's position what is the outlook for flax?

[bucket]

Emails from the grain companies are encouraging 12 dollar new crop canola target. No shit or the acres are going down.

But now that they played their hand my next target goes in at 12.50, I gotta recover some of that expensive seed cost.

me just big dumbshit farmer duhuh! Oh shit I might be catching burbertitis.