Feed Grain Update

[charliep]

Current feed barley prices - Vancouver. $300 to $310/tonne FOB West Coast (landed boat) or in the area of $225 ish Alberta elevator equivalent. Price not competitive with the local feed market. Southern hemisphere (Argentine and Aussie) are potentially the feed barley market suppliers with issues quality (impact malt supplies) versus quantity. Current prices similar to that indicated for west coast Canada. Saudi prices $340 ish CIF (delivered).

With Aussie still somewhat a wild card, feed wheat supplies are getting sold out around the world. To highlight, South America corn is the current market driver/source of supplies ($300/tonne).

[brian99]

What do you think of corn, Charlie? Just got ours done and the moisture is around 17%. Have to get it dry yet... I usually don't lock down any corn sales until it's in the bin, it's just so risky in southern Alberta.
With the drought down south, most times the crop comes up shorter than expected, light bushel weights, etc.

[charliep]

Feed grain supplies in North America and western
Canada in particular will remain tight to the end of
the crop year. this to me says there is not much
downside risk from current levels to prices at least
until May. How much upside potential? Some but will
be limited by the sorry state of the livestock feeding
industry and their ability to pay/find alternative feeds.
The market also needs an up tick in US corn exports
as other off shore feed grain sources dry up for the
major importers. Not a bull by any means but there
potential for improvement.

May on will be driven by potential US corn production.
Lots will highlight how dry it is across the US going
into spring. Having said, things can change quickly
and US corn acres are going to be up. Combine this
with demand destruction from this past crop year (a
fancy word for less animals) and I think corn has the
potential for biggest drop in prices as well as the
most volatility. It will be an interesting summer.

[errolanderson]

March corn broke major support of
$7.15/bu this morning . . . this is
significant. Corn now heading into a
lower trading window.

Have been actively guarding growers with
Dec 13 corn puts for some time now as a
general hedge against a broad-based
grain/oilseed price meltdown.

Errol