Canola do the markets just not get that soy and canola don't do we'll in mud!

[Hopperbin]

can chalie step in here and mention somthing
about demand. this stuff we are growing is not
recyclable as food as say copper and iron for
instance is recycleable i notice he is quite
conservative lately. ... no one is actually selling
new crop anything are they? its a stand off

[charliep]

Yes there is solid demand growth around oilseeds in general and canola in particular. For my two bits, I think it is early to suggest a crop failure. My core focus would be around managing price and production risk around your crop in a world of uncertainty. I wouldn't have a problem in pulling the trigger on some of expected 2013 production at current levels if you haven't done anything to date. That is an individual manager decision based on your businesses needs and risk taking ability/style.

Perhaps to highlight that the futures market is not a forecast of the future prices. It is a price at a point in time where a willing buyer and seller are willing to shake hands (metaphorically) on price each participant for their reason based on their needs. If you disagree, there is nothing forcing you to participate.

Talked to someone today who had purchased a selection of new crop wheat puts over the winter. Expensive but the individual is very happy with that decision at this point in time. The idea is to set your market plan, understand the tools that will make it happen and execute on your strategy when appropriate to your business goals.

[charliep]

Just got this week's emalt and saw the following weekly quote.

"Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth."
Marcus Aurelius

Don't know if it fits but an interesting perspective.

[SASKFARMER3]

Same cab be said for the BS out of the USDA etc.
all last year you said it wasn't that bad of a canola
crop we all know how right you were with that.
Bins will be empty come July wonder why.

[charliep]

Perhap I am missing something but what about has been happening with the 2012/13 canola situation that has suggested the market hasn't been dealing with the tight carryover. Given 99 % of canola enters the commercial handling so looking at the numbers is relatively easy. CGC numbers point to a 500,000 tonne carryover which is still tight when you are looking at monthly disappearance of 1 MMT.

New crop is another discussion. I have not nor will I put out a 2013 production number. I suspect you found me pretty wishy washy last year as well. The market will be the ultimate determiner of value - not forecasts by any institution. If you think the market is undervalued, stay long.

[furrowtickler]

90% of the canola crop is in - just not the acres they thought and timing is on the later side. It has been 9 years since the last early hard frost, Vegas anyone ....... My bets are that this canola crop will be about ave with some quality issues come fall. All corn, soyabean and canola acres will be short of record acres and yeilds. I would bet a bottle of rum if anyone cares....

[furrowtickler]

Oh , and more wheat seeded than forecast with 60% more feed wheat than 2012 come fall.

[furrowtickler]

Just a heads up IMO.

[SASKFARMER3]

furrow I agree Corn soy and Canola wont get the acreage the trade thinks are being seeded. Wheat my god my neighbour who did canola canola canola canola switched to wheat. HM. Yes those green fields have rows of wheat.
Yes also if I was a betting man I would put money on a fall frost the last year was 2004 and it was very very bad.
Rain doesn't make grain it makes fricking mud!

[tipsy]

furrow you had feed wheat in 2012, not because of frost? and it seems you believe we are over do for a fall frost what date are you picking? and if were going to do a poll/wager, i'll go no frost before for sept 2 around 2am.

[errolanderson]

If you have forward priced canola for fall
movement, but want to be long canola
through the weather season without a huge
price risk . . .

Nov canola $600 calls may trade for $10/MT
on a market pullback. If canola fizzles
this summer, you only risk the premium.
But if canola rips higher, these calls
will appreciate in value.

[seabass]

When u boys be able to start seeding again