Canola do the markets just not get that soy and canola don't do we'll in mud!

[SASKFARMER3]

Some will say I'm at it again but if a 3 inch rain
hits southern sask and all of Manitoba the 2013
canola crop will not be. That big.
1 it is seeded late and west sask plus Alberta will
be blooming in the heat. Pepper!
Se and Manitobas fields are not dry they are
saturated now add a major rain event and boom.
Seeding canola most to north of me are just
starting or mid point with seeding. So late, l
Then throw in next weeks forecast for rain and
one asks what f$& king surplus will be grown in
2013.
Four the USDA is 89% full of shit with most
reports. Soy hates mud and buy the look at the
weather lately soy will suck.
Have a great day it's a perfect world!

[ajl]

After a couple of good canola yrs (2010
and 11) there are a lot of people with
unrealistic expectations of canola
yields. Input suppliers are in the
business of convincing you that your
competitors are getting those yields
routinely. Lots of difference between
the best field and the farm wide average
in most cases I am sure.

[Digger]

Canola has appreciated $40/mt since May
7????

[Hopperbin]

this positive 80 basis off nov and deliver now
looks good wonder if they will let ypu do it for a
jan future month . for remaining old rop

[Hopperbin]

true it is appreciating new crop futures months
have plenty uf upside potentiol less downside in
my opinion

[hobbyfrmr]

30 bu/acre x $13.00 = $390/acre minus $300.00/
acre costs =$90.00/acre profit. 1000 acres
planted gives you $90,000. Why worry?

[SASKFARMER3]

Hobby 30 x 16 gives you 480 - 300 gives you 180
profit on1000 that's making money. Not feeding
them product for no profit!

[agstar77]

Actually Soy does better in wet conditions than canola. That is one of the reasons we switched. As long as you can get it established it will do well in a wet summer if the warmth is there.

[ajl]

Very few farms produced a farm wide
average of 30 last year. Try 24 x 13
hobby. That is why canola is up.

[HappyFarmer]

Exactly Hobby, 100 % agree with you.
Arguing about the fact that canola acres
wont go in, soy is wet, canada is wet,
Bla, Bla, Bla tends to go to far some
times on here. Could all those
circumstance some to light, sure they
could. Do i feel bad for they guys that
cant get the rest of there crop in, of
course i do. But there is still a big
story to be played out in North America.
Best quote i have heard this year and i
keep going back to was something cotton
put on here this winter from Mark Twain
quoting "It's not what you know that
gets you in trouble, its what you know
for certain that's not true that does"

And a fast fact, this is the 3 wettest
May on record of Iowa. The wettest was
2004, the same year that state produced
the highest yielding corn and soybean
crop on record. There is a big story to
be played out yet. Making predictions on
the 2013 crop on May the 29 is
ridiculous.

[HappyFarmer]

oh ya and hopper check out bunge in
Harrowby, they are 110 over nov for June
delivery, can truck canola a long way for
30 bucks a tonne.

Just a thought.

[SASKFARMER3]

I do agree once soy is up they love water, once
their up not sitting in bag drill or mud! I have
seeded in mud for way to many years its good for
shit! Some have been spoiled , he'll I use to think
we couldn't ever have to much rain, we'll guess
what you can!

[Hopperbin]

can chalie step in here and mention somthing
about demand. this stuff we are growing is not
recyclable as food as say copper and iron for
instance is recycleable i notice he is quite
conservative lately. ... no one is actually selling
new crop anything are they? its a stand off

[charliep]

Yes there is solid demand growth around oilseeds in general and canola in particular. For my two bits, I think it is early to suggest a crop failure. My core focus would be around managing price and production risk around your crop in a world of uncertainty. I wouldn't have a problem in pulling the trigger on some of expected 2013 production at current levels if you haven't done anything to date. That is an individual manager decision based on your businesses needs and risk taking ability/style.

Perhaps to highlight that the futures market is not a forecast of the future prices. It is a price at a point in time where a willing buyer and seller are willing to shake hands (metaphorically) on price each participant for their reason based on their needs. If you disagree, there is nothing forcing you to participate.

Talked to someone today who had purchased a selection of new crop wheat puts over the winter. Expensive but the individual is very happy with that decision at this point in time. The idea is to set your market plan, understand the tools that will make it happen and execute on your strategy when appropriate to your business goals.

[charliep]

Just got this week's emalt and saw the following weekly quote.

"Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth."
Marcus Aurelius

Don't know if it fits but an interesting perspective.