It's Official: We have a GIANT Crop!

[farming101]

Front page of the Producer. Agri-Trend marketings's president says canola will average 50 across the prairies.
The article goes on to say that his calculations are based on what has been showing up on yield monitors! They may have to be lowered by 15 percent to reflect acres lost to spring flooding.

I kid you not. You can't make this stuff up. Check it out.
http://www.producer.com/2013/09/bumper-doesnt-cover-it/

[LWeber]

50 bushels per acre across the Prairies equates to 21.874 MMT

QUOTE: His canola production number destroys Statistics Canada’s July forecast of 14.4 million tonnes and August trade expectations of 15 to 15.5 million tonnes.

“If we hold these yields, we can get to 18 million tonnes, (although) I’m not sure we’ll get there yet,” he said.

UNQUOTE

A calculator is not in Squaire's job description. Perhaps he is applying for Bernanke's position.

[dave4441]

Read his article again. Says 42.5 after
abandonment equals 18 MMt

[LWeber]

OK - where are the 2,893,481 million canola acres that were flooded...??

Here is some history...

Seeded acres Harvested acres

2003 11,550,000 11,440,000
2004 12,735,000 11,875,000
2005 13,100,000 12,635,000
2006 12,957,272 12,855,000
2007 15,630,000 15,510,000
2008 16,000,000 15,900,000
2009 16,375,000 15,950,000
2010 17,375,000 16,735,000
2011 18,771,744 18,540,000
2012 21,775,000 21,500,000
2013 19,540,000 19,190,000

[farming101]

Well, if there is 15 percent of the canola acres lost to flooding that is astounding news. It would lower the harvested acres based off earlier estimates of a 20 million acre crop down to 17 million.
Or, it could mean that there were 23.5 million seeded and then 3.5 million got flooded leaving 20 million.
I give up. Fun with numbers as SF3 says.
One thing is for sure-there is a record crop in the making. No denying it. How big is anyone's guess. Right now everyone is having fun guessing.

[Hopperbin]

All I know for sure there is no 55 bushel canola crop beside me. Mine is 40 which happens. Heat. Scraping the bottom of the CaseIh sprayer when spraying worms. Cutting on the ground when swathing, swath is as wide as the 12 foot rake up, so somehow it shrank one hell of a lot. Maybe I just farm in the wrong location this year.

[SASKFARMER3]

He's full of shit! Plain and simple!
It's good but not that good" hopper I still get texts
from guys in the area with huge bto crops and am
hearing thought it was huge got in and kind of
disappointed! Wheat was good most say that! Ag
trends this winter will be telling guys follow us and
you to can get 60 across the board! Mother
Nature did this crop with two weeks July low heat
with just enough moisture! Opposite and most
would have shit, long time grower"

[MarshallDillon]

I am sick and tired of hearing about all these big yields. Early excess precipitation did it to us again this year, 4 years in a frikin row. My yields
2010=17 bu/acre
2011=11 bu/acre
2012=26 Bu/acre
2013=44 bu/acre

Not getting rich!

[Hopperbin]

I left my producer which I don't look at much these days in the truck in the field never even looked at the front page as I was looking for a truck tractor like immediately. So If agritrend is stating such a yield they may soon be out of business in my opinion.

[cottonpicken]

math

20 million tonnesx500=?

80 million barrels of crude per day x100=?

[Hopperbin]

I think I get it now. Everyone wants to sell out and great yields and profit is good for selling land or renting. Fk I should rent for a year my yield just went from 50 bushel of soft wheat to 120. pretty sure land rent has not dropped cause we are all making out better this year. Lots of cash these guys have that drive these new John Deeres etc. Make me an offer.

[Wheatking]

Like we are supposed to believe what a guy
says selling his agronomic services, of
course he is going to say his clients have
a bumper crop. Smells like a salesman
talking to me.

[mbratrud]

Larry gets the same kick out of it as I do.

[fjlip]

Always been suspicious of Agri-Trend.
Nothing is big enough in their articles.

[ado089]

By the time it's said and we'll be
average by the time we get to the later
stuff that was mudded in and stayed wet
until july.