This boom ain't over boys... The fun is yet to come.

[Klause]

We are in for a wild ride. Just wait for it

Everyone complains about grain prices... almost 7
bucks for HRS, 13 soys... massive world wide crop
and we are doing this well?

What about a drought? What about no WW in the
US?

There's a lot of dead wheat down there. 69 days of
world supply disappear fast when the world's
largest producer has 50% of a crop.


We have logistics issues in Canada. Nothing more.
Nothing less.

Ritz Cracker took the CWB monopoly off, and told
everyone - grain cos, farmers, rail lines "here ya go
boys have fun".

'Course nobody knew what to do.

Elevators forgot that they needed to prebook cars
for the grain they sold, then they forgot the math to
fill a ship logistically.

Railways booked more cars than they could ship.

Farmers, figured that the "new world" meant they
could cash-sell their wheat crop w/o contracts...
Without planning.


It'll work itself out as everyone learns how to do it.
This big crop was the worst thing, because we
haven't learnt to work in the new reality
collectively... never mind dealing with a massive
crop on top of it.



We need more locomotives. CN and CP need to start
paying demurrage for cars that don't show up.
Simple as that. $10/ton/day per tonne of capacity
that doesn't show up should be enough....

Very easy fix.

Unfortunately, our ag minister is about as smart as
that sparrow starring down our dog outside my
window.

[LEP]

Where does everyone get the idea that you "prebook" cars when you make
a grain sale. That just isn't how it works.

Cars are not booked that far in advance.

I think the mistake that grain companies made was assuming that if they
ordered cars they would arrive on time.

The first few months of the year had the railways providing phenominal
service and I think the grain companies were lulled into thinking that would
continue.

So they put sales on that required continued good service.

[food4u]

Was there not also reports of grain
companies over booking cars last fall
just to make sure they got all the
wanted???

[dave4441]

This mess had to happen before the system could
get fixed. This will likely change how people view
marketing.

[ado089]

I would like to agree klause but
unfortunately we are in for a cyclical
period of pressure on commodities. The
only reason we are still seeing
relatively strong prices has been the
huge amount of quantitative easing but
that will come with issues of its own.
Studying demographics and the economy
overall shows that there are massive
stumbling blocks ahead and that the
current strength in precarious at best.
Agriculture has the ability to have
fundamental based rallies but we will be
very vulnerable to overall weakness in
the broader economy. The boomers need to
pay the piper for the lavishnes and
entitlement they have endowed on
themselvesand not until then is there
reason to be optimistic.

[fjlip]

We will get the shipping figured eventually. Asked several in the business lately and here is my take. Individual elevator stocks and contracts are compiled in grain company head offices. There, the car orders to RR's are made based on those stats. Then after a certain amount of time allotted for rail car to reach port, a ship is booked to arrive. Each grain co sends cars to points that it chooses for various reasons. Individual elevators follow company orders.
Obviously the supply of cars is not infinite, neither RR ability to move the cars. It all went to hell because there is no coordination between all the players. Too many orders, at one time, for the capacity of our system. Free for all jammed the works. Does this make sense?

[SASKFARMER3]

Then their is Dave again blaming farmers. Nice!

[mbdog]

Sask...where do you see Dave blaming farmers?

[bucket]

SF3

I agree.

This has nothing to do with marketing, this is simply a transportation issue.

I wish others would realize it.

The US is at a even or slightly negative basis and their grain is moving.

With empty terminals and 50 boats waiting our basis should be positive not negative.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes bucket all I here is better marketing, really
and no movement so what am I missing! #1 13.5
and months behind. I guess it should have been
feed. Dave do you advise rot because some one
us feeding him
the same BS!

[blackpowder]

As industry participants, farmers have some
responsibilities. In this instance, a bit part.
There are lessons here for all. Overcoming the us
against them mentality could be a start.
Sask3, local JRI taking April canola next week.
Didn't want to start my 30 year old truck this am,
-32C. RR cover in My part of world not bad.
Concentrate on Saskatchewan after winter?
And yes, I am hearing the very occasional
farmer saying he will be more proactive.
Low protein wheat here will get a birthday card
however. How is that the RR fault??

[SASKFARMER3]

#1 13.5 sitting since nov and contract done last
feb. Yea I guess that's my fault! Should of grown
shit.

[bucket]

blackpowder

I have been noticing early calls on some commodities, but what is the difference if you plan to haul in November and get the call in February(late), or contract in April and they call in february(early).

The graincos still can't plan a 2 man rush on a three hole shitter.

I plan my work so I don't wreck my equipment.

I could haul in minus 30 and have ten grand repair bill - not what I planned and not going to because I wouldn't be money ahead.

[blackpowder]

Sorry I'll try again.
I didn't start my truck either.
Of course this is a gong show. And it will happen
again as it has happened in the past. Govt
policies allowing a duo of companies to favour
themselves for 100 years.
My last kernel of 2 13.5 left last week.
Absentee neighbour with same will be taken in
July.
Without the benefit of OCD or independent
wealth, I tend to cope by being philosophical
instead of combative.
Farmers very small but important role in this is to
continue to put forth positive effective solutions,
either with a smile or an elbow to the ribs. Today's
shitshow is a legacy left by everyone gone before.
To simplify, Graincos and RRs need to bleed to
change. Sitting in Timmy's every am hollering
asshole won't friggin help.
There are some good ideas on here.

[farmaholic]

Blackpowder, I respect your opinion. But can
hardly help feeling it isn't anything but an "us
against them" scenario. I agree that solid
relationships in business can make a difference
but when they are one sided relationships that is
hardly fair. This is costing my farm alot of money.
With no way to recoup it.

.......OCD or independantly wealthy..... LOL