This boom ain't over boys... The fun is yet to come.

[Klause]

We are in for a wild ride. Just wait for it

Everyone complains about grain prices... almost 7
bucks for HRS, 13 soys... massive world wide crop
and we are doing this well?

What about a drought? What about no WW in the
US?

There's a lot of dead wheat down there. 69 days of
world supply disappear fast when the world's
largest producer has 50% of a crop.


We have logistics issues in Canada. Nothing more.
Nothing less.

Ritz Cracker took the CWB monopoly off, and told
everyone - grain cos, farmers, rail lines "here ya go
boys have fun".

'Course nobody knew what to do.

Elevators forgot that they needed to prebook cars
for the grain they sold, then they forgot the math to
fill a ship logistically.

Railways booked more cars than they could ship.

Farmers, figured that the "new world" meant they
could cash-sell their wheat crop w/o contracts...
Without planning.


It'll work itself out as everyone learns how to do it.
This big crop was the worst thing, because we
haven't learnt to work in the new reality
collectively... never mind dealing with a massive
crop on top of it.



We need more locomotives. CN and CP need to start
paying demurrage for cars that don't show up.
Simple as that. $10/ton/day per tonne of capacity
that doesn't show up should be enough....

Very easy fix.

Unfortunately, our ag minister is about as smart as
that sparrow starring down our dog outside my
window.

[LEP]

Where does everyone get the idea that you "prebook" cars when you make
a grain sale. That just isn't how it works.

Cars are not booked that far in advance.

I think the mistake that grain companies made was assuming that if they
ordered cars they would arrive on time.

The first few months of the year had the railways providing phenominal
service and I think the grain companies were lulled into thinking that would
continue.

So they put sales on that required continued good service.

[food4u]

Was there not also reports of grain
companies over booking cars last fall
just to make sure they got all the
wanted???

[dave4441]

This mess had to happen before the system could
get fixed. This will likely change how people view
marketing.

[ado089]

I would like to agree klause but
unfortunately we are in for a cyclical
period of pressure on commodities. The
only reason we are still seeing
relatively strong prices has been the
huge amount of quantitative easing but
that will come with issues of its own.
Studying demographics and the economy
overall shows that there are massive
stumbling blocks ahead and that the
current strength in precarious at best.
Agriculture has the ability to have
fundamental based rallies but we will be
very vulnerable to overall weakness in
the broader economy. The boomers need to
pay the piper for the lavishnes and
entitlement they have endowed on
themselvesand not until then is there
reason to be optimistic.

[fjlip]

We will get the shipping figured eventually. Asked several in the business lately and here is my take. Individual elevator stocks and contracts are compiled in grain company head offices. There, the car orders to RR's are made based on those stats. Then after a certain amount of time allotted for rail car to reach port, a ship is booked to arrive. Each grain co sends cars to points that it chooses for various reasons. Individual elevators follow company orders.
Obviously the supply of cars is not infinite, neither RR ability to move the cars. It all went to hell because there is no coordination between all the players. Too many orders, at one time, for the capacity of our system. Free for all jammed the works. Does this make sense?

[SASKFARMER3]

Then their is Dave again blaming farmers. Nice!

[mbdog]

Sask...where do you see Dave blaming farmers?

[bucket]

SF3

I agree.

This has nothing to do with marketing, this is simply a transportation issue.

I wish others would realize it.

The US is at a even or slightly negative basis and their grain is moving.

With empty terminals and 50 boats waiting our basis should be positive not negative.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes bucket all I here is better marketing, really
and no movement so what am I missing! #1 13.5
and months behind. I guess it should have been
feed. Dave do you advise rot because some one
us feeding him
the same BS!