Oil Setback Long 'n Painful

[Klause]

With all the money getting printed ask yourself how we can still have deflation for very long.


Things are going to start happening very very quickly.

[Hopperbin]

So land is cheap buy it. Buy it all. Bid more. Klause the new bto.

[ALLFARMER]

Still so fn busy in Grande Prairie. Test equipment going out, frac ponds going up and down daily from edson to fox creek to fort St. John

Can't wait to see the look on there faces when I tell'em I need 10 days off to go cruising.

[canolacrazy]

the so-called experts have predicting higher interest rates for 2 years. anyone notice that it's not happening. the message is pay off debt, sell stocks and go to cash as much as possible. be happy if your land is paid off. just like some are doing now, waiting to fill their tanks as long as possible because tomorrow the gas and diesel price might be lower.
that's deflation, and it's scaring central bankers everywhere.

[fjlip]

Hate to be a supplier or working for one. Pay cuts for everyone? Layoffs and million dollar houses to pay off!
How about the inventory some are carrying?
Machinery dealers lots are full. Next Ritchie will be interesting. Got an auction booked? Values are evaporating.
Lucky interest rates are SFA, maybe they will go lower? Keep floating, lock in lower rates in future? Nothing but stress.

[Rareearth]

First deflation then inflation.

The velocity of money, demand, is low right now. Every one is pulling back, saving, paying off debt, etc. the Fed can print all the money it wants, banks aren't lending, the opposite is happening, interest rates are too low right now, when interest rates start to increase hold on, it will be turbulent.

[SASKFARMER3]

Allfarmer Grand Prairie is booming. Ah if the price keeps dropping and goes to 35, you will be able to shoot a gun down main street at noon on any given day and not hit a single person car or dog.
This is serious shit. Not Not in my back yard were ok and will weather the storm.
Million dollar homes in Calgary will be empty. Ok Broad Ass maybe already!

[sumdumguy]

not just Calgary, big new homes built on oil credit all over Alberta and Saskatchewan. They could be under water very soon with the loose lending practices. Guess who is on the hook, the taxpayer through CMHC.

[SASKFARMER3]

No small town home is worth over 300000 100 miles from a city. Sorry not even close. Also never were homes in our area 850000 and the hood never was 100000.
Homes were way over priced.

[Rareearth]

The housing market is influenced by , the replacement cost or the cost to build new pricing and the demand. The developers, contractors have been going flat out for some time now, now a correction, not that unusual. Now the length and depth of the correction is another thing, fundamentals... Charts don't factor bubbles.

[ajl]

Actually the order is first inflation and then deflation. Examples include the 1920 then 30's. The 1970's then the 80's. Last six years inflation then the next years deflation. Inflation was largely confined to asset and commodity prices because Asia helped keep the consumer prices under pressure these last few years but they were the inflation years.

[ado089]

Money is such a small part of the money supply. You can print until you run out of ink if it's not being lent, leveraged and put into producing goods it doesn't mean a thing. What has been the gross impact of $4 trillion of stimulous on the US economy? A few hundred billion in GDP? Sounds like a piss poor investment to me. That money has gone straight into the equity markets and any sort of meaningful correction in either equities or bonds or few major deafaults and all that extra printed money is gone at the click of a mouse. Luckly for us we've taken alot of our lumps price wise but I think servicing debt on imaginary equity will be tough on our industry.

[kato]

Which is why we cattle producers are pretty much pounding the proceeds of this years good prices back onto debt. Been there, done that, never want to do it again. We had the experience of losing 90% of our equity in five minutes back in 2003. Now that's a market " correction" if there ever was one.

Unless you lived it, it's hard to describe what that felt like. Imagine in the space of time it took to drink a cup of coffee, you were told that your $500,000 house is now worth $50,000. You are still expected to make the payments on the full amount, and oh, by the way, it may be a couple of years before you can have a paycheck.

It was closer to ten years before things started looking up. That's a long time. It's all a matter of perspective. What causes greater suffering? Losing the ability to trade that $80,000 truck in every year? Or lose everything, like some people I know did.

[canolacrazy]

oil is down another 4% today. that makes over 60% in just six months. just sit back and watch the carnage. fertilizer, chemical is next. the bright side, cash is king again.

[cottonpicken]

It's still all about the debt. The entire market is rigged and if investors ever got a wiff of inflation they would sell those low yield bonds in a heart beat and the fed would be forced to buy them then the entire thing becomes unglued.