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How about... the 'RR shareholder Alliance den of iniquity' must post a 10percent performance bond

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    #25
    Charlie, trying to compare different farmers costs is not easy. One guy may spend 40 dollars on N, and 50 bucks on machinery, and get 35 bushels. One guy may spend 75 bucks on N, and 15 dollars on machinery, and end up getting 52 bushels an acre.

    It is not easy to compare. Around here, the smaller-mid size farmers IMO actually get the better average yields, because they have less tied up in land rent and machinery costs, so they go harder agronomically. Some guys have more love for steel, so they short themselves a bit to be driving a quad track or whatever. Also, the more acres farmed, it is simply harder to get EVERY piece of land produciing optimally.

    Again. The number one reason canola yields have gone up, is rainfall and less heat in usually dry and hot areas. The number two reason, is soaking inputs on relative to 10 or 15 years ago. Weather has to be good to hit 50. everyone is spending money on fungicides, needed or not. Some guys swear they work, some guys think they are pointless. Many guys now pencil it in as a matter of course.

    Some guys make more money with 35 bushel canola, than their neighbor with 50 does, and vice versa, because of their focus in life.

    Canola sucks with wet feet. Peas suck worse with wet feet. Barley sucks with wet feet. I see few crops that do much better than the other in saturated soils. So for me, in the wettest of the wet zone, my cropping plans have little to do with excessive moisture.

    Another thing. You ask why we keep growing canola. Honestly Charlie, here is my response. Take it for what it is worth.

    Farmers honestly are not as smart as you think. You give them far too much credit for financial savvy. I think the guys on here, honestly are far from typical, in that I think most are smarter than the average guy out there with their money. Some sure are on top of things. But most guys do a quick gross revenue calculation, and forget that canola costs way more to grow.

    Canola also is one of the few crops where a true home run can be hit. It is about the lottery factor. A 60 bushel canola crop would net out better than almost any crop of wheat, barley, or oats. Guys are going for the holy grail, they want the home run. Trouble is in most areas the home run only hits once every 5 or so years. But when you have hit that home run before, you want it again. It is a drug like factor to be frank.

    Secondly, with cash advances based on Crop insurance yield times price, to get a decent cash advance for summer operating, the highest GROSSING crop will pull you the most up front cash. So that is another reason. Most guys highest grosser is canola by a fair margin. If it went by net revenue, less canola would be grown for the advance advantage.

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      #26
      Forgot Charlie, you asked how canola has been moving. Around here, it has been absolutely terrible. I have never, ever, ever struggled to ship canola, and turn it into cash. But this year, I have not been able to send any at will.

      I ask the 52 average yield people: What is the point of growing big crops that can not be shipped? Is another line being built that I know nothing about???

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        #27
        The last few years of gains in canola have also been driven by very low disease in 2013 and very low insect presure the past 4 years . Disease was a limiting factor here last year - 50 seemed to be a plateau for most regardless of fertility or variety. The odd full bore field that was not too wet went 60 plus. The majority was mid forties even with good fertility .
        I believe 52 is possible but a lot of stars are going to have to line up - all the time.
        The varieties are there, most agronomy is close, but Mother Nature will dictate.

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          #28
          Oh, there is no question the agronomy is there. My dad grew 45 bushel canola in the early 80's with far less agronomic know how than now. It has been there for some time, IMO.

          But yeah, 20 million acres is a lot of acres to have blessed by near perfect weather, each and every year. And so that is why I feel it will not happen.

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            #29
            My point is yes the new varieties are good but good for wet conditions or basically the canola dome!
            Lots will be surprised how well canola does in normal sask and alberta weather!
            Manitoba is soy and corn and moved on!

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              #30
              The Sask and Alberta comment is a tongue in cheek coment!

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