Klause' Wednesday Market Analysis

[Klause]

.... I make no representations this is informational only if you loose money on my recommendations it's your own decision...





Oil: I see it dropping down to 29 to 31 then reach a plateau. If us production starts dropping we will be ok. Otherwise it'll hit 20 bucks by July.



Canola: start making sales when futures hit 450 to 470. We will see that within a few weeks maybe a month or two. Futures only.


Come harvest time I expect canola around the 400 a tonne mark and cash bids sub 8 bucks unless we have a major weather scare.


Yellow peas: 7.50 to 8.20 new crop is available... 7.50 includes an Aog. Old crop at 9 bucks is also still around. Good time to book sales in both. Should sell all old crop at these prices and would go to 50% on new crop.




wheat: it's a crap shoot but if new crop at 6.20 to 6.40 for a #2 13.5 is available may be a good time to make some sales maybe 30%.

Old crop high fuzz bids are available around 5 bucks mid sask and low fuzz up to 6.40 depending on protein.



Flax

Old crop prices are strong... may strengthen more going I to may/June. Would still make sales now if possible... New crop 12 bucks is available... With acres going in that's fairly attractive.

[ALLFARMER]

I concur with your oil and canola assessments. The slowdown in China is having an impact on all commodities.

[wakopa]

Lol that's funny, why would I lock in wheat at 6:40, sometimes it is funny on here .

[boarderbloke]

Klause, regarding the prices/bus your suggesting, what's the value of the CAD? Are you thinking 80 cents U.S., 70, or 60 cents U.S.?
If crude goes to $29-31/bbl, what's the CAD worth? 60 cents U.S. or do you think lower???
If it's 60 cents U.S., then all your prices are way too low. IMHO

[Klause]

I'm thinking the CAD will hover around 75 cents for these projections. I have a feeling the US economy isn't in as good a shape as they think and the USD is in for a correction.

[Braveheart]

I know the CA $ will be an influence, if the USD stays strong or gets stronger it will keep a lid on US wheat futures and will reduce demand for US wheat keeping supplies burdensome.

[rkaiser]

"I have a feeling the US economy isn't in as good a shape as they think and the USD is in for a correction."

Finally ---- it makes it to agriville.

American economy has been fake for a long time. Only thing holding it up is the wall street gang stealing what they can and conning the little guys until the day they make their big exit.

[farmaholic]

50% new crop peas without AOG is suicidal after last year's experience here.

Would have liked to do a new crop flax contract with a line Co., no AOG-NO THANKS.

Just my two cents.

[ado089]

I think you're $2 high on wheat. Pretty close on the rest.

[redbull81]

Where you seeing OC bids for yellows at $9?
In southern AB prices have backed off to $8 now.

[crusher]

Futures for Kansas wheat is 40 cents higher July 15 vs 16. I'd be a seller if that translated to our cash price.

[malleefarmer]

feed barley forward price dec 15 $250 port equates to $220 on farm will be a incremental seller once $258 is hit.

many traders suggesting barley feed will be the big mover in 15 because of chinese issues and policy and gm corn concerns, not sure whats going on exactly Charlie or errol care to comment