It's august tomorrow

[ado089]

First day august tomorrow and there are still plenty of yellow fields out there and there are already single digit lows in the forecast. Could get interesting.

[TOM4CWB]

Woooow!!!

CBC says we are doomed... Monster El Nino is going to fry us!!! Just started. 3 years of toasting with warm winters and drought!!!

© Terry Reith/CBC An infestation of grasshoppers has added to the woes of Alberta farmers who are already dealing with drought.

In the dead of a Prairie winter, when cars won't start and exposed skin freezes in 30 seconds, people pray for a searing hot summer. But across Western Canada this season, many may be recalling the old adage, "be careful what you wish for" as forest fires, drought and pestilence invite biblical comparisons.

More worrisome, though, than the sight of Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia wilting under 30 degree temperatures in June and July — and rationing scarce water supplies in some areas — is that this might just be the start of an even bigger problem.

Many meteorologists are chalking up today's weird and wacky weather in the West to the fact that this is an El Nino year, referring to the cyclical Pacific Ocean phenomenon that disrupts global weather patterns.

The problem with that, according to Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips: "It's not even arrived in Canada yet."

"We don't see the effects of El Nino until late fall, winter and early spring," he says.

What that likely means is at least three more consecutive seasons of warmer, drier weather when farmers are already, quite literally, tapped out in the moisture department.

As for what that could mean for drought conditions next summer and beyond, Phillips says it's "not looking good."

Feeling the heat

Canada's Prairies have just experienced their driest winter and spring in 68 years of record keeping. "So they were behind the eight-ball before the summer season ever came," says Phillips.

That, coupled with a record low snow pack in North America, and few of the traditional June rains needed to grow crops, has had a cumulative effect that's hit some producers harder than others.

Says Phillips: "For ranchers it's pretty much game over."


"The tinder dry land has kept pastures for grazing cattle from turning green and producing feed, forcing cattle ranchers to sell down their herds or ship the animals around looking for alternative feed sources.

Meantime, B.C. has seen more than 1,300 wildfires since April, and the height of fire season doesn't usually begin until August. And, just this week, Metro Vancouver was forced to impose extraordinary stage-three water restrictions,something it hasn't done since 2003, one of the last big, bad summers on record.

Merely restricting water use, though, is little comfort on the parched Prairies, where scattered, late July rains have come too late to help many farmers and ranchers salvage the season.

"Our cereal fields, our oats, our wheat, our barley essentially baked in the field," says Garett Broadbent, agricultural services director for Alberta's Leduc County, just south of Edmonton.

The municipality voted unanimously this week to declare a local state of agricultural disaster as soil moisture and crop conditions continue to decline to the worst levels in half a century.

Plague of grasshoppers

Already, area farmers estimate they've lost about one-third of their entire crops to drought.

And if that wasn't bad enough, adds Broadbent, "Then we've had a band of grasshoppers that came through the west part of our municipality and depleted pretty much everything that was out there."

In Saskatchewan, it's a similar story.

"There's a lot of canola that's in very rough shape. " says Shannon Friesen, crop management specialist, with Saskatchewan Agriculture.

Friesen expects this year's harvest will also come early with average yields — if they're lucky.

But the losses that stem from a drought or other catastrophic events related to climate can have much more serious consequences than the financial impact, according to a long-time climate scientist.

"People often say, OK, so some guy's house flooded away or burned down. So what? They can pay to have it put back. But I say, you can't pay to put back the loss of a life or fix a mental disability from these things happening," says Gordon McBean, a climatologist and professor at the University of Western Ontario."...


"'Monster' El Nino

Adding to the concerns is that this year's El Nino is gearing up to be what some scientists are calling a "super" El Nino, or a "monster" one.

That's making a record-hot year seem almost inevitable, and a sobering new report about the Earth's temperature shows it's right on track to do just that.

The latest monthly tally from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows the average global temperature in June reached 16.33 C., breaking the old record set last year by 0.12 degrees C., or nearly a quarter of a degree.

That makes the first six months of 2015 the hottest on record, according to the U.S. scientific agency.

NOAA climate scientist Jessica Blunden says, in addition to the dwindling snow pack, "glaciers are melting, sea ice is melting, sea levels reached record highs last year, the ocean heat was record high last year, sea surface temperatures were record highs last year, so you put it all together and there's a definite trend."

It's a trend Blunden expects to continue into 2015 and beyond as long as, she says, greenhouse gas levels continue to rise year after year."
http://www.msn.com/en-ca/weather/topstories/the-bad-news-for-western-drought-monster-hot-el-nino-on-the-way/ar-AAdqBYl

[tweety]

Didn't you just say things were pretty good there in AB? What was it, 70% of normal?

[SASKFARMER3]

I want a drought we need three more dry years to clean up all this water! That's the climate change I want!

[grrrr]

Blue moon tonight and no frost. Just sayin'.

[Klause]

Most canola done flowering. Early peas getting swathed or dessicate. Later about a week away. Barley and wheat turning.

We're a month ahead of the last few years.....


What we have noticed is crops although good, are thinner than first thought....

[TOM4CWB]

Tweety,

Leduc AB had spotty showers...
but CBC is CBC.

I read through the most recent AB AG...on DTN today; 70 percent of the 5 year normal is likely close.

"Alberta Crop Report
Fri Jul 31, 2015 01:52 PM CDT
From Alberta Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry

Alberta Crop Conditions as of July 28, 2015

The continuation of moderate temperatures combined with widespread shower activity throughout the province have placed crops are under less stress and crop condition ratings have stabilized at 30% rated good or excellent. The precipitation received this week has provided modest improvements to soil moisture ratings. Surface moisture ratings increased 2 points to 32% rated good or excellent and subsoil ratings improved 4 percentage points to 29% rated good or excellent. Most crops have completed their reproductive stage with only a small amount of late-seeded crop remaining. Precipitation from this point onward will have minimal effect on yield potential but would continue to be very beneficial in kernel filling and seed test weight which would affect grade and ultimately price to the producer.

The first yield estimates of the season have been published. These estimates are provided based upon extremely limited information at this time and will be updated bi-weekly. Current provincial estimates are approximately 25% to 30% below the average of the past five years though it should be noted that two of those years (2013 & 2014) produced the highest average yields ever reported for the province.

Hay and pastures continue to green up with the moisture and growth has restarted. First-cut dryland haying is 90% complete with poor yields and so-so quality as only 65% of the crop is rated as good or excellent. Second cut irrigated haying is 20% completed with average yields and very good quality. Hay/pasture ratings have improved slightly this week to 44% poor (-4), 38% fair (no change), 18% good ( 4), 1% excellent (no change).

Regional Assessments

The 2015 Alberta Crop Report Series provides summaries for the following five regions.

Region One: Southern (Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost)

-- Spring cereals entering early dough stage; winter cereals ripening; canola 85% podding; field peas podded.

-- Harvest is starting on winter cereals, field peas, lentils and barley in a few areas.

-- 1st cut haying complete for dryland and 20% of irrigated 2nd cut has been harvested. Small amount of dryland 2nd cut hay expected to be harvested if weather cooperates.

-- Initial crop yield estimates 15 - 25% below 5 year averages and 5 -- 10% below last difficult year of 2009.

Region Two: Central (Rimbey, Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen)

-- Spring cereals have completed pollination and entering milk stage; winter cereals in soft dough; canola 74% podding; field peas are podded.

-- Rain combined with hail in west and central areas benefitted head filling and hay/pasture recovery. Crops continue to deteriorate in the east portion with spotty showers only.

-- 82% of 1st cut dryland haying completed; yields poor; only 60% of crop rated good or excellent for quality. 35% of the region anticipating the ability to get a 2nd hay cut.

-- Initial crop yield estimates 20 -- 25% below 5 year averages but 15 -- 30% above 2009.

Region Three: North East (Smoky Lake, Vermilion, Camrose, Provost)

-- Spring cereals in early milk stage; winter cereals beginning to ripen; canola 68% podding; field peas 98% podding.

-- Most areas received some precipitation which benefitted head filling but slowed haying and hurt hay quality.

-- 1st cut dryland hay is 82% complete. Only 58% of the crop is rated good or excellent for quality. Half of the region anticipating the ability to get a 2nd hay cut.

-- Grasshoppers moving off dried out hay and pastures have become an issue with 11% of region rating damage at over economic thresholds.

-- Initial crop yield estimates are 25 -- 35% below 5 year averages; 5% below 2009.

Region Four: North West (Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley, Athabasca)

-- Spring cereals in early milk stage; canola 63% podding; field peas 93% podding.

-- Spotty precipitation noted throughout the region with highly variable quantities reported.

-- Desiccation of early maturing field peas has begun.

-- 1st cut dryland hay is 90% completed. 81% of crop rated good or excellent for quality. Region optimistic regarding the ability to get a 2nd hay cut.

-- Grasshoppers have become an issue with 17% of region rating damage at over economic thresholds.

-- Initial crop yield estimates are 30 -- 35% below 5 year averages; 10% below 2009.

Region Five: Peace River (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview)

-- Spring cereals in medium to late milk stage; canola 81% podding; field peas 92% podding.

-- Spotty light showers across the region did little except delay haying operations.

-- 1st cut haying is 87% completed. 64% of the crop rated good or excellent for quality. Two thirds of region optimistic for a 2nd cut of hay.

-- Grasshoppers and lygus bugs are an issue with damage rated a 14% & 12% respectively over economic thresholds.

-- Initial crop yield estimates are 15 -- 25% below 5 year averages; 10 -- 20% below 2009.

(CZ)"

[freewheat]

I am so used to having yellow canola in August. With the moisture, it hangs on and blooms and blooms and blooms indeterminately almost. And the hailed stuff is rebranching and blooming too.

3 weeks to swathing after end of bloom around here. Lots of time!

[Horse]

SK3 where does your water go so fast do you have super draniage? After 8 yr of too wet you went to to dry now to wet and now you want dry again , all in less than 1 yr ,no wonder mother nature is so confused,all that is enough to give a dogs ass heartburn.
If we had that much water here in a yr we would be good to go for at least2 yr with a few showers thrown in.

[TOM4CWB]

Great to hear from you Klause!!! Hope you have a good and safe harvest! We will start desiccating peas middle of next week. Canola still in full bloom on later seeded... but the next week will fix that with warm temps (31C today) that will shut it down.

[sawfly]

el nino or not you will never outguess it.
the reserve subsoil moisture is the only reason we have a crop at all this
year. with the driest may june on record. like 120 years

if it has not recharged by next spring. we are gambling like in the 80s.
but the bets are 4 times bigger now


you can have the drought if you want SF3 . i will gladly take 150% of normal every year.

i never dreamed i would see 4 years as wet as the preceding last four.
never though i would see 100 bushel
wheat either.

we could just as easily have a ten year super drought which would crush us all.

hopefully you get your drought and we get the rain

[Horse]

Tom I hate to disagree but in region 4 things are a lot worse than you posted pastures are gust about gone hay is 25/40% normal and the grains I think more are burning than ripining but will have to wait for the combines to know for sure. Grasshoppers I dont know what the threshold is but I would estimate 50 or more per sq ft and all sizes. Rain about 40% normal and a lot of that is the 2/3mm stuff that realy dosent do squat.

[ado089]

I sprayed my peas today but right beside it th neighbors reseeded canola was as yellow as it gets. Probably 20% is like that in the area. Some later peas started flowering again with the showers on th weekend. All I'm saying is some of this crop needs to avoid frost into September.

[TOM4CWB]

Horse,

There is no doubt the showers were hit and miss. Some growers I know will have average crops. others have fields that are as you say 40 percent of normal.

This all thrown together gets to the AB AG averages... which are not far off what I see!

[riders2010]

so why are all these places declaring disasters? Klause hit the nail on the head about crops driving down the highway look good put the swather into it and its not that good, that won t be everywhere but those areas that had the heat when it was dry at the early stages most definitely had more effect than people realized, also see lots of white blank heads in wheat and the shitty canary seed crops in places I expected better.