Bayer rolling out the chequebook for monsanto.

[buzz]

Some serious poker playing going on here.
Not sure I like seeing the number of seed and chem companies shrinking at this rate.
DuPont and Dow mashing together as well.




Monsanto all-cash offer increased to USD 125 per share on July 1 after additional information received in private discussions / Bayer has comprehensively addressed Monsanto’s questions concerning financing of the transaction / In addition to certain commitments to regulators possibly required, Bayer has offered a USD 1.5 billion reverse antitrust break fee, reaffirming its confidence to successfully close / The revised offer retains compelling value creation potential for Bayer shareholders / Bayer remains fully committed to pursuing this transaction

[farmaholic]

.....like there was any "competition" between the two giants in the canola seed market anyway.

[ajl]

Looks like Bayer is completely confident it can raise seed and chem prices enough to pay for this. Just like when the equipment dealerships merged parts prices took off.

[bucket]

Some good a competition board does?

Allow companies to become monopolies within their industry....we are beginning to look a little slow on that front...turns out we were ahead of our time?

[farmaholic]

Something to think about....

How many shares would you have to own and receive dividends from to offset what this might end up costing us in the end because of a near monopoly on canola seed costs?

Remember the dual herbicide tolerant canola that is just waiting to hit the market... As I said before, first they will sell you the "problem" then the "solution".

[bucket]

Dual herbicide canola aka super weed.

[farmaholic]

.......because comments are made about joining them if you can't beat them or somehow getting some of your money back.

Geez. ...so own Chem Co shares, railway shares, machinery Co shares.....will I have any capital left to operate my own Co? Or should I just sell he farm and live off Dividends....could it be any riskier than what I'm doing now?

[sk_wheatking]

Guys are so worried about Chinese investors buying land but that's not going to be the problem in the future. These grain/chemical companies will eventually control all of ag. They will make it so cost prohibitive to operate that they will have all the land they want. Then they will hire you to look after it.just a minute, aren't they doing that now, with absolutely no risk to them?

Shit.

[farmaholic]

Don't worry bucket...if they don't already have one, they are working on a "SOLUTION"!!

pun fully intended.

A neighbor grew soybeans last year, on the same field he grew them again this year(apparently it's the thing to do). Last year it was a beautiful "clean" crop. Not so much this year, RR canola galore, probably "afew" RR plants went to seed in the soybean crop last year and this year it looks gross.

I use enough glyphosate on this farm...I don't want to use it two times for in crop weed control as well!

[Rareearth]

A great question, seems to be a dangerous - high risk time to buy into the stock markets. That and the commodity markets are where all the easy/ liquid money goes for yield, bonds won't do it. If one is wanting to hedge farm inputs maybe wait for a market melt down, black swan to buy into Bayer. Currently fert companies are a bigger piece of the expense pie and might be a better buy, and that commodity is going through a price reset now, maybe in another year or two after droughts and lower demand would be good timing? With future seed and chem technologies Bayer is likely a better long term.
It's all about timing.
This is where Cottons insight was nice.
If a farm does have discretionary income, what is the best investment? Land, equipment(work life balance),oil/gas, markets,?

[Rareearth]

[ATTACH]429

I'll get pic right next time

[tweety]

Monsanto the company doesn't sell seed. Dekalb does. Intacta does. Monsanto is a technology company. It will be quite interesting who gets spun off to where and how globally a company is forced to operate in each country.

[furrowtickler]

Just glad to see companies like FMC, Nufarm and others making inroads with some practical herbicide solutions. The big Chem co's in general have not brought foreward many viable solutions to the herbicide resistance to the farm level. This makes me nervous as we go foreward as to what their end game is.
Group 2 resistance is full bore here now to a point now pulse crops need desperately other solutions or they will be turfed . I know Nufarm is working on some very good crop safe different Chem groups for pulses. I hope it comes soon .
Also sad to see the backlash on clever wich is an extremely effective tool with liberty and cost effective. It has nothing to do with over seas markets as we are being told - this is a push domestically to keep cheap effective herbicides out of farmers hands while the big boys come out with a $25/AC solution to cleavers and other weeds some chemistry is becoming or never was effective on .
This merger , like a few others, is one of the last steps to control crop production - we all can see it coming . Many have noted this on here more than once.
Some grain companies have been trying this path for years now , trying to hook farmers into complete control with inputs and deliveries. It has already ruined a few farms, but kept a few with their heads just above the water.
Then there is the land investors who get puppets to run mega farms all controlled by agroligists and expert marketers . I am not sure where that will all end up.
This is where I have a great respect for the many family or multi family run farms, regardless of size - on their own, who are doing well , in fact much better than the dog and pony shows that are fore mentioned .
Too much power in too few hands is never a good thing .

[Oliver88]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-14/monsanto-s-choice-live-the-dream-with-basf-or-just-cash-out


With a newly sweetened bid in hand from Bayer AG, Monsanto Co.’s board faces a tough choice: Cash out now, or take a riskier route to the master plan it’s pursued for years.
Monsanto has long sought to become a one-stop shop for farmers by boosting its crop chemicals portfolio to complement its seeds business. To that end, it had pursued the purchase of Syngenta AG on at least three separate occasions over the years. While that push failed, the American seeds giant is now in talks to buy BASF SE’s agrochemicals unit, even as Bayer seeks to acquire Monsanto for $54.7 billion.
Last month, Monsanto said year-end earnings would settle at the lower end of guidance. BASF would boost the company’s offerings of fungicides and herbicides, creating a strong market leader in that sector. It could also dilute shares for investors at a time when Bayer’s bid offers a 20 percent premium over Thursday’s settlement.
“If you were hoping to get a lot of cash for your Monsanto shares in short order, you won’t like BASF,” said Chris Perrella, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. “If you liked the Syngenta deal, though, this is going to be the same thing. And you’re going to like this deal even more because it’s a cleaner fit."

So far, investors appear skeptical that either German suitor has what it takes. Monsanto’s shares were down 0.2 percent to $104 at 9:43 a.m. in New York on Friday, well below the value of Bayer’s offer the day earlier for $125, which was $3 a share higher than its initial bid. The open question is whether they’d support the more long-term growth prospects offered by the BASF scenario, or are just waiting for Bayer to push their offer higher.
The price at which Monsanto would be willing to sell is closer to $140 a share, according to PiperJaffray Cos. analyst Brett Wong.

“Monsanto is not a hasty seller,” said Matt Arnold, a St. Louis-based analyst at Edward Jones & Co. “They have good assets they’ve invested for years in, and there’s no reason to sell hastily. They’re making sure they’re adequately compensated, that’s the one thing that’s very clear.”
A deal with BASF means Monsanto could sell farmers a greater offering of crop chemicals along with seeds, helping it compete with industry leaders in the midst of deals that would create seed and chemical behemoths.
Last year, Syngenta sold $8.9 billion in yield-boosting chemicals, Perrella of BI estimates. BASF had $6.1 billion, while Monsanto trailed at $4.8 billion. A deal with BASF would bring Monsanto more products and, potentially, cost savings. Laurence Alexander of Jefferies LLC estimates the synergies from such an agreement would be about 7 percent.
Monsanto’s choice between Bayer and BASF is the latest twist in a prolonged attempt by the world’s top six suppliers of pesticides and seeds to consolidate.
For a Gadfly column on Bayer’s increased offer, please click here.
A three-year rout for crop prices spurred a wave of deals in the industry. Dow Chemical Co. and DuPont Co. announced in December they would merge before breaking into three separate entities, including a Monsanto-sized agriculture company. China National Chemical Corp. said in February it reached a deal to buy Syngenta.
“With DuPont and Dow putting together an integrated seeds and crop chemicals company, Monsanto would stay neck and neck from a competitive standpoint” by combining with BASF, said Jason Dahl, a New York-based senior portfolio manager at Victory Capital Management Inc. “The strategic fit works.”