Prices and reports

[bucket]

Been thinking about the weekly sask ag crop reports.

Why do we not have a weekly report on fertilizer company production?

Or chemical company available stocks?

Or a railway report that is only a few days old?

Or current pricing of port prices and what's going on there.

Seems odd that Saskatchewan farmers gladly report current going ons almost daily but no one in the rest of the chain does or has to.

Just seems odd.

[bucket]

And why do I have to accept Black Sea prices for grain but not fertilizer?

[farmaholic]

Careful bucket, pointing out inconvenient truths will get you labeled as a whiner.

[bucket]

Yes I know but why do western Canadian farmers feel obliged to tell the world our up to the minute happenings?

Mosaic lays off 500 workers .... chances are the sheds are full and they compete against the Russians that are delivering potash at around 250 per tonne.

Same with urea.

[binthere]

yes the sheds are all full to the cork. the ceos all will get their bonuses also.

[boarderbloke]

bucket, I had the same thought when StatsCan was trying to get info from me this spring. Why aren't they calling fertilizer co's/dealers and asking info under legal threat like they try with us? same for Chemical, grainco's oilseed crushers etc Good point

BTW, the best answer to StatsCan is not to never answer the phone for a number you don't know, never.(tell the rest of the family too.) If it's anybody important they'll leave a message. Despite their calling, I haven't answered in atleast 7 years. Previous to that I'd give them B.S. answers anyway.

They can get more and better blanket of info from crop ins.

[furrowtickler]

All good points bucket .
Was thinking much the same things the other day as grain prices started dropping again.
Wise guy , your prob not far off the mark either. Also I seen first hand what you mentioned a while back about seed plots being abandoned wise guy. Right beside me was a big production this spring , big fancy sign all nestled right beside me. Well the plot did not turn out in their favour, sign disappeared and I guess they may pretend it may not exist . First time I've seen that , ever. This had 100% to do with the seed co , not the farmer - he did his job .
Anyway , I think the grain markets have some more steam , I am hopping farming 101 is right on his insight .

[ajl]

The Canuckistanian economy is not very diverse and as such they monitor certain industries to get an idea of what it is doing. Farming is one of them. The government also closely monitors housing construction as well as it is an indicator of economic activity or the lack of it thereof. So it is not just ag.

[dmlfarmer]

Actually Bucket we actually do get Black Sea prices for both grain and fertilizer. Our fertilizer price is based on the Black Sea price which is the biggest fert market in the world plus the cost of freight from Black Sea to here. When there is little competition that is how pricing is done. And since Black Sea wheat is cheaper of course western farmers get that price if we want to sell in a global market

[bucket]

Ajl

OK I agree.

Let me throw a wrench for a Saturday conversation.

Why is it that farm program's are designed as whole farm averages. So if one crop does well it averages up the poor ones. Or if you have cattle. ....etc.


But wait I am not done with the tinfoil just yet...


When bombardier comes looking for a billion they don't have to average in their Envinrude etec sales or snowmobile sales to get a bailout?


Same with GM or any oil company that's looking for a new royalty rate/subsidy.

Agriculture .... according to ...ag more than ever ...creates 1 in 8 jobs.

Maybe it's about time to get some real money to real farmers.

Farming starts up every spring with massive spending and we don't shut down because the crop is a bin buster or they are full.... like the fertilizer plants. We build more infrastructure/bins to keep going.

Lowly farmers building bins and billion dollar graincos sitting back counting the shiny new ones that they don't have to build. Yet gaining turns all along doing SFA.

Graincos need 8 turns.... farmers are lucky to get one a year.

[bucket]

Dmlfarmer

Nola is the pricing point for north American fertilizer.

Urea at Nola is 170 per ton.

170 ÷ .78 ÷ .9 = 242 cdn per tonne

60 bucks to get it here is 302 for the end users.

But it's produced here at Belle Plaine so if yara wants 170 at Nola they have to pay 60 bucks to get it there niw do the math.

Trucked out of belle Plaine the starting point should be 242 less 60 or 180 cdn a tonne.


Just like the math they do on grain and they are both commodities....just with different pricing models.

[bucket]

And when you look at international fertilizer prices ....Yara could shutdown and fill their warehouse with imported product and still make money.

Which leads to why a farmer group doesn't build a large warehouse ...cut supply agreements...instead of trying to build their own plant.

[bucket]

And it gets better because there are no quality regulations for fertilizer companies.

Do you really know if 46-0-0 is that?

[dmlfarmer]

Bucket. You are correct on all points. However take the nola price and deduct Atlantic freight costs from it and you get the Black Sea price

as far as paying less because it is made here - business maximize profits by charging the maximum they can before their product is replaced by a compitors. The only real supplier that could meet Canada fert needs is Black Sea so they charge a price equal or just under Black Sea plus freight. The fact that I he Canadian fert is made in Canada is irrelevant in pricing.

Finally given the obscene profit the Canadian fert manufacturers make on Canadian made fert they can easilier out compete any farmer group trying to build a value chain to import fertilizer. They could care less about an individual farmer importing but would outcompete any large attempt at importing and end up buying new assets for pennies on the dollar

As if farmers in this country would ever agree to work together

[bucket]

Although as farms grow and you see an individual put up more storage than the three graincos at moose jaw....I think many people are misreading farmers ability to say "**** you"

One good farm leader with a vision and I think fertilizer companies would be lining up to get a piece of our business they have been taking for granted.

Same with politics.