Prices and reports

[bucket]

Dmlfarmer

Nola is the pricing point for north American fertilizer.

Urea at Nola is 170 per ton.

170 ÷ .78 ÷ .9 = 242 cdn per tonne

60 bucks to get it here is 302 for the end users.

But it's produced here at Belle Plaine so if yara wants 170 at Nola they have to pay 60 bucks to get it there niw do the math.

Trucked out of belle Plaine the starting point should be 242 less 60 or 180 cdn a tonne.


Just like the math they do on grain and they are both commodities....just with different pricing models.

[bucket]

And when you look at international fertilizer prices ....Yara could shutdown and fill their warehouse with imported product and still make money.

Which leads to why a farmer group doesn't build a large warehouse ...cut supply agreements...instead of trying to build their own plant.

[bucket]

And it gets better because there are no quality regulations for fertilizer companies.

Do you really know if 46-0-0 is that?

[dmlfarmer]

Bucket. You are correct on all points. However take the nola price and deduct Atlantic freight costs from it and you get the Black Sea price

as far as paying less because it is made here - business maximize profits by charging the maximum they can before their product is replaced by a compitors. The only real supplier that could meet Canada fert needs is Black Sea so they charge a price equal or just under Black Sea plus freight. The fact that I he Canadian fert is made in Canada is irrelevant in pricing.

Finally given the obscene profit the Canadian fert manufacturers make on Canadian made fert they can easilier out compete any farmer group trying to build a value chain to import fertilizer. They could care less about an individual farmer importing but would outcompete any large attempt at importing and end up buying new assets for pennies on the dollar

As if farmers in this country would ever agree to work together

[bucket]

Although as farms grow and you see an individual put up more storage than the three graincos at moose jaw....I think many people are misreading farmers ability to say "**** you"

One good farm leader with a vision and I think fertilizer companies would be lining up to get a piece of our business they have been taking for granted.

Same with politics.

[Rareearth]

You are right on the mark Bucket.

There is a huge expansion in fert storage being built now in western Canada, 5,000 ton sheds and bigger,lots of them, strategic to ground distribution to the end users(farmers).

The manufactures have off take agreements with the fert manufactures so they can keep the plants going year around vs surging for spring and some fall production, competing with the global supply, and the price gyrations of NOLA. This will also lower the production costs for manufacturing, it also creates a high priced captive market in western Canada.

I think the G3, Alliance Grain Trade, type companies, have great access to off shore supplies, 10,000 ton shipments, could gain a lot of "good will", respect, loyalty from growers. It would be easy for them, build the big sheds, bring in unit trains from the ports. They could use the "Klause" model, farmer brings grain in and takes home fert, they would have a much larger draw area, could source from greater distances they grade or type of grain they want. In a dry year, or very competitive market that could be the difference maker.

[bucket]

G3 is Saudi owned .... might make sense for them to buy grain and ship fertilizer back ...the deal on two way freight from Saudi to the middle of the prairies would be quite a saving in itself.

They should be able to kick the shit out the pricing policies used today and still make a good return.

[bucket]

And maybe they would trade a tonne of fertilizer for a tonne of grain.

[may-be]

What we need is a spot where we handle fertilizer at port to fill empty train cars coming back. Instead of loading it on a barge to bring it up the Mississippi and then reloading it to be redistributed.

[farming101]

Anyway , I think the grain markets have some more steam , I am hopping farming 101 is right on his insight .

My input should be viewed as not worth more than the dot at the end of this sentence.

Opinions of others should be researched thoroughly. See if they fit with your view of the market and your business. Hoping is not wrong, but planning is what needs to be done in the post _ _ _ world. If insurance is needed to keep things afloat, get it.

While this rain has wrecked crops and downgraded others think of what it has done for this province as a whole. Big crop coming. Well, maybe not lentils.

Not a very good shot for today but guess how much of this area is canola blooming. If your on a PC right click and hit "view image" for a closer look. Or go here and check it out for yourself. [URL="https://lance.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=AERONET_Bratts_Lake.2016198.terra.500m"]https://lance.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=AERONET_Bratts_Lake.2016198.terra.500m[/URL]