Every second day a storm hits some where in Saskatchewan or Western Canada these storms dump huge amounts of water. An example we have had over three inches in last three days. Yea that's making a crop.
Seems every year the experts try to tell the world how big a crop we are producing from their little cubicles in Cities.
Well here is some basic math because these storms are taking their toll and the big crop is fading every day.
First take a farm with 30 quarters of Canola 150 acres per quarter total 4500 seeded acreage. 4500 x 40 plus prediction at seeding 180,000 bus
Nice perfect seed bed.
First storm then second in late may early june.
Lost acreage is 5 to 10 %.
That farmer is going to harvest 4000 acres now not the 4500 he started. 4000 x 45 because its a nice crop so he is back to the 180,000 bushels
Now throw in a hail storm on some of the farmers land say a 1/3 gets any where from 10 to 30 percent Now that farmer has lost another 400 acres of his total. He is now down to 3600 162000 bus.
Now throw in flooding that we will see at time of harvest but under canopy you don't see from road at 120kmph. take a 10% hit that leaves 3200 to harvest from the 4500 you started with.
3200 x 48 = 153600 or 26400 bushels less than your first budgeted. Now this farmer example didn't produce the predicted amount He has 4500 divided by 153600 bushels or 34 bushels a acre.
Yield is dropping every day some who have texted or phoned lost crop at 100 percent on some or all there land others are flooded on whole quarters.
Throw in some aster yellows and sclerotina.
Yea its a big crop But mother nature is having a hay day taking the crop lower.
Total production at this rate will come in less than the experts are predicting how much lower is the question.
Seems every year the experts try to tell the world how big a crop we are producing from their little cubicles in Cities.
Well here is some basic math because these storms are taking their toll and the big crop is fading every day.
First take a farm with 30 quarters of Canola 150 acres per quarter total 4500 seeded acreage. 4500 x 40 plus prediction at seeding 180,000 bus
Nice perfect seed bed.
First storm then second in late may early june.
Lost acreage is 5 to 10 %.
That farmer is going to harvest 4000 acres now not the 4500 he started. 4000 x 45 because its a nice crop so he is back to the 180,000 bushels
Now throw in a hail storm on some of the farmers land say a 1/3 gets any where from 10 to 30 percent Now that farmer has lost another 400 acres of his total. He is now down to 3600 162000 bus.
Now throw in flooding that we will see at time of harvest but under canopy you don't see from road at 120kmph. take a 10% hit that leaves 3200 to harvest from the 4500 you started with.
3200 x 48 = 153600 or 26400 bushels less than your first budgeted. Now this farmer example didn't produce the predicted amount He has 4500 divided by 153600 bushels or 34 bushels a acre.
Yield is dropping every day some who have texted or phoned lost crop at 100 percent on some or all there land others are flooded on whole quarters.
Throw in some aster yellows and sclerotina.
Yea its a big crop But mother nature is having a hay day taking the crop lower.
Total production at this rate will come in less than the experts are predicting how much lower is the question.
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