Oversold Canola

[errolanderson]

Markets go too high, but they also go too low.

IMO, the washout in canola was exceptionally steep over the past few days. There is still lots of weather ahead for North American crops.

This may be just a bounce in an overall bear market, but none-the-less a bounce.

[bucket]

Errol

In my travels I haven't seen the canola flower as long as other years.

Production?

[farmaholic]

The only fish they'll be able to catch are the hungry ones. The others will be able to wait for more and better "bait".

[farmaholic]

Is there a legitimate reason the price is as low as it is?

No one needs to try and catch the falling knife?

Pre-harvest price desiccating(ha ha)?

Any crushers on shut down?

Is the crop as "good" as they think?

How much is in commercial hands?

China's dockage dilemma(crock of shit price depressing practices)?

Canola versus soybean price comparison?



A fool can ask more questions than a wise man can answer.

[fjlip]

Basically canola and soy are only carryovers decreasing??? Billionaires playground probably the reason.

[Partners]

Every yr we are suppose to make money, with lower prices..Just a few yrs ago wheat was $8.36 off the combine and canola was $14.40 off the combine..

If the big boys want to play with grain, why can't they do it with higher numbers so we can survive?

As long as there is one extra seed in the bin...Its over supply...

[farmaholic]

What really grinds what's left of my gears is why we should have to accept less money because the crop may be better than average. This should be a benefit to the Producer. Like a lot of other things, once the price bar has been raised to a certain level it shouldn't be allowed to fall too far back. Maybe I should think about fertilizer for a moment (this year)! Even tougher is the profit point is different for everyone given all the variables with fixed/variable costs and yeild.

Tough way to make a living....but as some of you say, if it was easy everyone would do it. Who in their right mind.....?

[grefer]

All you have to do is look at most other industries. They cut back and lay off workers until things improve. Not farmers. We are told and often do just grow more. How is that working for us?

[bigzee]

Plain and simple ...... rain makes grain!!
All the flooding, hail, and disease are non issues, at least that's what I was told.
Grow lots and they will buy it cheapy cheap!!!!

[4GFarms]

That is exactly right Grefer!! For example, price of canola falls from $11 to $9 and you grow 40 bushel crop and the difference to get to the same follar value/acre is 48 bushels. How do you get the extra bushels??? Well Mr. input guy can I buy another $20/acre of fert. Well you need to buy now cause price of fert is going up (haha)! Oh and to harvest/transport that extra 8 bushel crop you need more machinery (insert equip dealer name)!! We are all idiots (loose term- dont want to offend anyone)! Grow more for less but dont forget to take the snap shot if your uncalibrated yield monitor in that 60 bu canola field through that low spot where an old farm yard used to be so you can tell your neighbor yours ran better than his to feed your ego!! What a joke us farmers are (end of rant)!

[4GFarms]

We are 40,000 independent business competing for the same business whereas who we buy from and sell grain to are only a handful that probably talk to each other for price collusion. We probably need a farmer coop type deal with the farmers interests in mind that is run properly so everyone can benefit. Need to tell these companies enough is enough, we need some profit to survive.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Where to start? Maybe us farmers just aren't very proficient at reading the blatant signs that the market is sending. the market is telling us that it has more than adequate product, we were supposed to take the price hint and grow something else, or cut back. But thanks to the no risk model created by government supports, we ignore the signs.

If you want to be rewarded for growing a great crop, we should travel back in time and go join a collective farm in the USSR. We could all be hero's be on the news, receive medals and commendations for exceeding your production target and helping meet the 5 year plan. Of course, it didn't matter if the market needed or wanted what you grew so successfully, it was in the plan. And when we grow the monster crop, we can just recruit all of the local city folks to come assist with the harvest rather than buy more machinery. They had to "volunteer" for harvest. I really enjoy looking at old Russian newspapers and magazines, always celebrating the achievments of agriculture and industry. There was a news segment dedicated to farms and their progress.

So, if we expect the price to be artificially higher, what method do you propose to keep supply and demand in balance? If the end user doesn't pay as little as possible to source their product, what will ever possess us to cut back our production?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

And as for complaining about our lot in life, I also work in the oil industry, as DID most of my neighbors. It is ugly. I may not have a lot of sympathy for many of these folks considering the lifestyle they were living, but many people have been a year or more with NO work. Houses are being foreclosed, toys are all gone, school enrollment is way down. Those who are working are getting half in many cases. It is affecting every business, retail, restaurants etc.

Farming looks pretty good right now. I'll take good crops and mediocre prices over terrible crops and tremendous prices any day. We all have the option of growing something else, or working for someone else, and it seems we don't take that option, so we must be doing OK.

[fjlip]

Or just QUIT and get off the low valued part of the chain...nothing will EVER change, good times were few shit times were many. That is from the past 45 years, however young guns are WAY sharper, more informed than we were and they can make money any way, beat the big businesses! Just watch them, impressive!

[farmaholic]

Albertafarmer5: I am not the most "worldly" person you will ever talk to but I doubt there are many businesses that suffer as many "resets" as primary ag production......things must always be getting out of control in primary grain production.

Ah **** it....it's only food.