Crude Oil: Bear Market Territory

[cottonpicken]

Errol ain't that bad.
I got the gold,land,wheat and housing right in about 04ish I thought it was game over when they monetized the debt I knew they had to do it because of math I just didn't think everyone would fall for it amongst a whole lot of mistakes I made. Timing is everything. Now it's time to rethink my premise and start a new thesis,started about two yeArs ago,so many more balls in the air now,I'm not sure I can.

[errolanderson]

boarder . . . despite the near term pressure of crude oil, the Cdn dollar tilted lower, but overall remains rangebound.

The big Cdn banks are each taking-a-turn hammering the loonie outlook, but personally don't buy in this bearishness.

The U.S. dollar (IMO) remains vulnerable to a sell-off given the worsening economic conditions stateside. The Japanese Yen continues to strength despite their ongoing central bank stimulus. This wasn't suppose to happen.

Also, the U.S. can ill-afford to maintain a strong dollar. When their recession hits, the Fed will want a weaker USD. And it may force the Fed to actually cut rates in 2017.

This could provide support for the CAD. Technically, CAD has key resistance at 78 1/2 cents. Spot loonie has key support at 75.6 cents. An opinion for what it is worth . . . .

[ajl]

Yeah it has been pretty tough to make money on the short side of the US market the last couple of years. It is likely that markets these days are pretty well in balance. $100 US oil was the product of central bank money printing and war premium. 40-60 US is likely the market getting us the oil we need. Same can be said about farm commodities. $10 canola will not inflate land but will get the needed canola produced. My conclusion is that markets are probably right once there are enough gurus saying things should be otherwise. The US and Canadian economies, while not booming, are doing OK and we will just have to adapt to the low growth environment.