Are they ready?

[bucket]

Been reading that the railways can move this crop.

How much has changed since 2013?


How many new railcars are available?

How much more capacity can the tracks and elevators handle?

Farmers get info picked regularly but finding out what's available going off farm doesn't have publicly available stats.

It seems we are heading for another wreck.


With harvest standstills of late ...elevators should be emptied out.

But then I also think when an elevator is 80 percent full ....the train should be parked there already. The lineup of super Bs fill the last cars.

[farmaholic]

This week's Western Producer has a story highlighting the fate of the hopper car fleet. Interesting. Fleet size of 22400. Government owned cars(8400), Alta, Sask and the Old CWB cars(3100), and the rest owned/supplied by railroads and other shippers. The issue is who is going to replace the aging fleet?

[Klause]

What bumper crop?


Just wait till combines really get rolling.


We're in a garden patch here and very lucky to be in it. North, South, East, West all have production issues and are loosing yield....

I predict there won't be much trouble moving this crop at all...



As far as what's changed? Locomotives can pull grain cars because there's no oil to move.... That's what's changed.


We never had a shortage of grain cars, it was a shortage of traction power and rail slots.

[bgmb]

What bumper crop?


Just wait till combines really get rolling.


We're in a garden patch here and very lucky to be in it. North, South, East, West all have production issues and are loosing yield....

I predict there won't be much trouble moving this crop at all...



As far as what's changed? Locomotives can pull grain cars because there's no oil to move.... That's what's changed.


We never had a shortage of grain cars, it was a shortage of traction power and rail slots.

Agree 100 percent with that assessment. This crop is not a bumper, some areas yes but not across the board like 13. Farmers have lots more storage now vs 13 I don't see the basis being as bad as in 13

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Lots of new hopper cars built for hauling frac sand. Most are sitting idle now. I had a conversatio with a frac sand company about 2 years ago about potentially back hauling grain. Not interested then, worried about contamination. I wonder if that attitude has changed with the lack of frac sand business?

[sumdumguy]

That frackin sand, let her sit while we give away our wheat.

[jamesb]

the oil by rail movement is a fraction of what it was a couple years ago and as others said frac sand is not moving either. For every rail car of oil going down the line it's one less of another product like grain. I see west of Souris, MB on a branch line lots of those blue Alberta hoppers. Been there a long time.

[Guest]

Agreed klause. Bumper is long gone even these f$&k ups wont be able to say theyre to busy to haul grain. In fact they will be real happy for the work again ! In fact everything has changed from 2013, and i dont think oil patch will ever be what is was again

[jake550]

First of all, I agree, WHAT bumper crop???
Take a real close look. It's just not there like it looks like at 60mph driving by.

Secondly, who is going to be trying to sell sell sell grain at these prices??

I don't care if every elevator within 100 miles radius is empty they won't get one bushel of our wheat at today's price. And I'd sure like to believe majority of farmers will do the same.

[MBgrower]

I agree, if you didnt presell, who would give it away at these prices. If you need cash flow, you should have presold long ago.

[Rareearth]

I hope Northgate elevator facilities on sask/usa border goes for market share, they hav a great opportunity to develope significant and loyal customer base - more than competitive. In the bulk commodity game volumes are king.

[HappyFarmer]

I think we are all on the same page.

First point agree totaly.....no where near a 2013 crop.

Secondly....we had 7 ish dollar wheat, 11.00 ish dollar canola through harvest that people sold the shit out of. We don't have anywhere near those opportunities this year. So point being even if we did have a 13 crop, people would be sitting back way more in selling the crop at harvest than in 2013.

I don't think this is even a issue worth talking about.

[may-be]

Started swathing canola today. Nice long pods but holding them up to the clear sky today I am out of denial that a lot of them are not filled like they should be. At least this the first time in many years in this particular field with canola, I can swath it with out not worrying about getting stuck going around drown outs.

[bucket]

The railway reports indicate the railways are only moving 500000 to 600000 tonnes a week.

They only meet 90 percent of the spots.

And there are unused cars due to damage etc.

No problems?

A 100000 dollar railcar earns 2 million plus during its lifetime and no one can decide who should buy new railcars?

Good thing I got a roll of tinfoil in the mail .... back to serenity now...

[Oliver88]

Railways are not organized and efficient enough to haul grain. They will use weather as an excuse if they get behind.
Instead of fines they will now be forced to take a selfie with a Liberal.

The Saskatchewan crop will be smaller than 2013 and 2015.

Prices are not enticing to sell, I believe most farmers will likely lock bins.
The farmers who run out of bin space will sell some grain so it doesn't have to sit in a bag or a pile in a muddy field.
Pre-sold grain will move.

The Input Capital crowd will fire sale their canola and pay off the loan sharks.

Grain prices will be terrible until February. We will see $11-12 canola April to July 2017.
Wheat will be 6.50 - 7 for #2.

Just my prediction.