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Stats Canada Tomorrow ah how they will be so off the reality!

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    Stats Canada Tomorrow ah how they will be so off the reality!

    Wheat
    Total wheat production is expected to reach 30.5 million tonnes in 2016, up 10.5% compared with last year. This could mark the second time in 25 years that wheat production will exceed 30 million tonnes, the other being the bumper crop of 2013.

    The reported increase in total wheat production resulted from a projected higher average yield of 48.9 bushels per acre in 2016, up 14.3% from 42.8 bushels per acre in 2015. In turn, harvested area declined 3.3% to 22.9 million acres, the lowest level in five years.

    Farmers in Saskatchewan, Alberta and Ontario all expect total wheat production to rise in 2016.
    Canola
    Canadian farmers anticipate producing 17.0 million tonnes of canola in 2016, down 1.2% from 2015. While the national average yield is projected to remain at 38.0 bushels per acre, lower expected harvested areas in Alberta and Manitoba are contributing to the decline in national production.

    Canola production in Saskatchewan is expected to edge up 0.8% from 2015 to 8.9 million tonnes in 2016. This is largely due to a 1.2% increase in harvested area, with average yield similar to the 36.3 bushels per acre in 2015.
    Lentils

    Lentil production is expected to reach a record high in 2016, as farmers estimate output to increase 36.3% from a year earlier to 3.2 million tonnes. The rise in lentil production is the result of a 36.9% increase in harvest area to 5.4 million acres, as expected average yield was 0.5% lower this year at 1,326 pounds per acre.

    The majority of national lentil production takes place in Saskatchewan, and farmers in the province are projecting 2.8 million tonnes for 2016. Anticipated average yield was reported at 1,283 pounds per acre, down 4.2% from 2015. During the survey period in July, significant amounts of rain fell in much of the province, which influenced yield expectations. As rain continued into August, final average yield could be further compromised in regions experiencing excess moisture.
    Barley and oats
    Barley production is expected to rise 5.8% to 8.7 million tonnes in 2016. This growth is attributable to a 6.5% increase in average expected yield to 69.2 bushels per acre. Meanwhile, little change is expected in harvested area, reported at 5.8 million acres (-0.7%) in 2016.

    Canadian farmers expect oat production to fall 11.9% to 3.0 million tonnes. This decrease reflects a 12.1% decline in expected harvested area to 2.3 million acres, as average yield is anticipated to remain basically unchanged from last year at 85.5 bushels per acre (+0.2%).

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    Last edited by SASKFARMER3; Aug 23, 2016, 06:58.

    #2
    Wheat my guess for final out come is

    28.2 thats taking in the Awesome Tisdale north HRS crops and rest HRS even if it is like Trudeau nothing in the head it looks good.

    Barley

    A whopping 10.3

    Canola

    After driving around and seeing flooded areas and smaller pods and smaller seed and well lets just say a lot of stock and not podded as deep.

    16.37

    Peas

    Some great some awesome and some just the Fricking shits.

    3.9

    Lentils

    Ah some BS some more BS and Finally some real big extra number 3s for pennies of what was contracted.

    3.33 Reply With Quote

    Comment


      #3
      Canola
      Canadian farmers anticipate producing 17.0 million tonnes of canola in 2016, down 1.2% from 2015. While the national average yield is projected to remain at 38.0 bushels per acre, lower expected harvested areas in Alberta and Manitoba are contributing to the decline in national production.

      Comment


        #4
        Peas 4611 up 44% from last year.

        wow quality lots of threes and feed in our area.



        Quality will be the name of the game in 2016 if you have it tell them to go F$%Lk them selves as Wheat barley oats lentils and peas will be mixed with shit to give elevators a profit instead of you.

        Comment


          #5
          The following is a quick summary of the Statistics Canada crop production estimates for 2016/17.

          Pre-report estimates are included for comparison. Production in million metric tons. Source: Statistics Canada.
          August Pre-Report
          2016/17 Ideas 2015/16
          durum wheat 6.807 6.200 - 8.500 5.389
          all wheat 30.487 28.500 - 32.000 27.594
          oats 3.018 3.100 - 3.900 3.428
          barley 8.704 8.000 - 9.500 8.226
          flaxseed 0.576 0.500 - 0.650 0.942
          canola 17.024 15.900 - 20.000 17.231
          peas 4.611 4.000 - 5.000 3.201
          lentils 3.234 3.000 - 4.000 2.373



          Commodity News Service Canada

          SF3, I think the report is likely close on canola, I won't can it bullish, but more positive for farmers than I thought yesterday. I think pea estimate might be high, need a breakdown in yellow vs. green. Flax is bullish, should bring $14/bus Wheat is mid pre report estimates, so should be neutral. Hearing proteins in New Crop range from 10.5 - 15.0 , mostly 13.5 - 14.0, at least in this early grain. Of course we knew durum numbers would be high.

          Comment


            #6
            S/F , any green peas in your area ? Or all yellows ?

            Comment


              #7
              95% yellow

              Comment


                #8
                furrow, I'd commented on a lower thread, where you'd post that update from Europe.

                Isn't France a big grower of green peas? I'm sure they have imported from Canada years back when they had quality issues with their greens. Any idea where France might export their greens, maybe Canada can get in on that too if France can't supply them with quality.

                Comment


                  #9
                  In our area pea ac up. Yield down.
                  Quality off.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    On Bismarck radio, CHS Hedging(who does the market update radio spots) blamed the drop in MGE wheat on StatsCan numbers, saying it was much larger than expected. Even though it was in the middle of pre report estimates.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Boarder , yes and interesting point .
                      Not a word on pea quality , lentils well known already but zip on green peas

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Stats Can canola production pegged at 17.024 MMT suggests our crop is down 1.2% as compared to 2015 production of 17.231 MMT. Go figure . . . .

                        Average trade estimate is 18.1 MMT

                        If Stats Can is right, there will be no canola left in the bin at the end of 2016-17. Go figure . . . .

                        If Stats Can is right, this is incredibly 'bullish the basis'.
                        Go figure . . . .

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by errolanderson View Post
                          Stats Can canola production pegged at 17.024 MMT suggests our crop is down 1.2% as compared to 2015 production of 17.231 MMT. Go figure . . . .

                          Average trade estimate is 18.1 MMT

                          If Stats Can is right, there will be no canola left in the bin at the end of 2016-17. Go figure . . . .

                          If Stats Can is right, this is incredibly 'bullish the basis'.
                          Go figure . . . .
                          And yet the basis is extremely wide even by Harvest standards. How long do we have to wait for it to narrow. Really no way that I can see to get some moved for cash flow and not get ****d.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Joey . . . There is solid demand for Cdn canola, but the overall canola production is much larger than what Stats Can has projected.

                            Average guess was 18.1 MMT. Our ProMarket Wire estimate was 19 MMT . . . nowhere close to Stats Can.

                            Realize weather still impacting production, but trade realizes the potential size of this crop which has hammered your basis levels. Basis levels seasonally begin to strengthen in October. New year deliveries should attract better levels as well.

                            all the best with your marketing . . .

                            Comment

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