price chart errol and larry

[malleefarmer]

Fyi guys look at russian and argie wheat compared to canada and australia no wonder we cant compete

[malleefarmer]

right clik and open image in another tab for blind guys like me

[errolanderson]

Black Sea wheat discounts are now running roughshod over global wheat export values.

A combo of large jump in Russian and Ukraine production plus the massive currency advantage of the collapsed Ruble plus dire need for foreign currency have allowed the Black Sea / Baltic regions to capture export share.

Cheaper Russian export wheat is now entering the largest American wheat customer market . . . Egypt.

This news in-part broke Chicago wheat below $4/bu of-late triggering a dive in to fresh contract lows.

[farmaholic]

I don't know the nuts and bolts of the world wheat market but my hope would be that the cheap poor wheat gets picked up early and when the stocks tighten, which I assume from comments won't because of ample supply, then the better quality wheat can get a "better" price. The quality wheats will likely suffer the affect of lower priced poor wheat even in the premium markets it normally would go into.

Maybe it will be what farming101 pointed out for decent quality wheat.... a perverse premium to even cheaper wheat.

So far most of our wheat is in the bin. Have just a bit to go and hopefully it doesn't get too much rain on it. What is in the bin is decent quality. The down grading factors will likely be the things that don't affect the use of the wheat.... like a bit of ergot and fusarium. Protein, falling number(assumption), weight are all good.

What I am concerned about is the dumbing down of our quality of grain. I fear and I believe it is happening that Red Spring wheat is being dummied down with other classes of wheat. So if you want to compete with Black Sea wheat that day is likely coming when Canada's customers feel they aren't getting anything better than the lowest common denominator. But does it matter if the customer's minimum specs are being met? Sad part is I believe it is done for Grain Co profits more than any other reason, sound a little like the canola saga?

[farming101]

I wondered if a fire sale on US wheat might happen.

I think it is kicking in. US wheat shipments are up and yet farmgate prices for US wheat farmers are terrible. Yes, there may be subsidies and insurance that is providing a cushion for farmers but still, the bottom line is that more wheat is moving.
US PNW winter wheat is being offered at around $5 US as Mallee's chart shows but back in N Dakota offers at elevators are about $2.75 US. At that spread there might be room for Portland prices to go lower yet.

I think this will be a short lived burst in shipments this fall as the system turns to soybeans and corn once that harvest kicks in. Rumors of no bid for wheat in ND are out there.

Sub $5 CAD for #2 13.0 Sept delivery? Looks like. Ouch
30 cents to store it till next June? Ouch again

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Black Sea wheat discounts are now running roughshod over global wheat export values.

A combo of large jump in Russian and Ukraine production plus the massive currency advantage of the collapsed Ruble plus dire need for foreign currency have allowed the Black Sea / Baltic regions to capture export share.

Cheaper Russian export wheat is now entering the largest American wheat customer market . . . Egypt.

This news in-part broke Chicago wheat below $4/bu of-late triggering a dive in to fresh contract lows.

We were in Russia this summer, and the collapse of the Ruble is having the effect you mention. Spoke to a businessman,he stated that wages have not gone up, they are not effectively getting twice the labor for the same amount of foriegn currency. Same with most other costs, very few have caught up with inflation. Their cost of production is still very cheap right now, but the falling Ruble has really isolated them from falling prices, or even increased prices. And they had lots of rain(excess) and no really bad heat this summer.

[malleefarmer]

Have a great friend who farms in Germany walshut tiengen area think around 1600 to 1800 acres any way when I was last there he was contemplating moving to Ukraine best soil and climate in the world, no fert needed farming practices archaic unlimited upside potential.

Now 5 years down the track hasn't got to first base the most corrupt place in the world to do business just impossible without bribes and kickbacks etc etc .

But he did comment if anyone wanted to start storage and handling facilities in Ukraine black sea would be another goldmine and if working direct with govt no middle men it may happen. Be a merchant obviously not himself but even 1950s style is praising there storage up might as well put it in caves he said.....