Russia Wheat Exports Explode

[errolanderson]

Massive Russian harvest likely ensures Black Sea region will set the pace and price of global wheat exports over the next crop year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-06/russia-upends-world-wheat-market-with-record-harvest-exports

[errolanderson]

Interesting analysis from Moscow analyst

Definitely, Russian wheat now cutting into U.S. top buyer, the Egyptian market.

https://cereals.ahdb.org.uk/markets/market-news/2016/october/06/prospects-russian-grain-crop-exceeds-expectations.aspx?utm_content=buffer9d697&utm_medi um=social&utm_source=linkedin.com&utm_campaign=buf fer

[farming101]

The US gave up on the Egyptian market in 2015/16.
Canada sent a small amount there last December and ran into trouble with ergot.
Tough market.

[ajl]

Well that was predicted to happen for 30 years and it has finally come to pass. RIP western Canadian farmers: the world don't need ya. They are not hamstrung by legacy costs like us which including a huge land price bubble (FCC isn't worried yet) and near monopolies in the input industry.

[bucket]

Monopolies on the input and output side of farming.

Railways and grain cos.

Fertilizer and fuel are collusionary.

We are farming on a margin. And less than everyone's cut.

On a per tonne basis everyone makes more on a tonne of grain produced than the farmer.

[errolanderson]

Collapse of the Ruble has given Russia a huge currency advantage. This current situation suggests the Black Sea region may dominate global pricing this fall/winter.

Take as opinion: but recent strength in wheat prices is a pricing opportunity (IMO), particularly for #3. Basis levels will come 'n go and may be key price driver of farm deliveries this winter. Separate your delivery decision from your pricing decision , if possible.

Commodity deflationary pressures remain alive 'n well (IMO).

[farming101]

I agree, a pricing opportunity especially if a guy has not priced/sold any yet.

In 2015 the Russians sold their wheat out for 30% less per tonne than Canadian export prices(including durum). Canada's wheat exports including durum were the highest in total USD's of any country in the world.

[farming101]

MWZ16 hanging in there very nicely today. So far pricing action has negated the day of indecision Thursday. Keep cheering.
$6.50 #1 13.5 for mid winter delivery in SK being offered. Discounts for nearby delivery are shrinking.
CAD landed on its head today. 6 month low.

[SASKFARMER3]

And Trudeau expects us to Compete with Russia to sell our Wheat. His next comment will be like his fathers, "You expect me to sell your wheat for you"

Carbon Tax will Kill a lot of farms, Not Grassfarmers for some reason but every single other one of us better get use to adding $50.00 more a acre for expenses. With SFA in return.

[grassfarmer]

LOL, some people you can never please - I thought that the whole deal with getting rid of the CWB was because you wanted to market your own grain? Now you are complaining that Trudeau isn't doing enough to market your wheat ...and that you might actually be expected to compete in the global marketplace... how unfair eh?

[blackpowder]

Wheat is the new summerfallow.
We might have diversified our crop base even better than we did ( re canola), had we not had our old system.

[SASKFARMER3]

Grass you seem to never really get what most are talking about. Just jump in and tell us how great either the NDP or Justin Trudeau is.

Im saying his new tax will increase my costs and every single other farmers in western canada and we have no one to pass it on to like every other business. So we now are competing against russia not on the same field.

Were losing markets and liberals and useless programs are to blame.

Please grass explain for all of us how you are so happy with his carbon tax and it wont effect you?