Stalled Canadian Harvest and Minni wheat prices.

[bucket]

That's all good but what elevators in western Canada can segregate more classes of wheat when at the end of the day if they need it... its going in the same boat?

[wmoebis]

Wonder how much is the result of every elevator and terminal shipping right at the bottom of the grade. When concerns first arose CGC made statement that they were wrong quality was same. Then all of a sudden came up with new class for our most common varieties. If new class is equal to USA etc varieties they should be priced equal and CWRS should be commanding a premium. Isn't that what we were asking for when the CWB was under fire?

[farming101]

Up till now I think this is mainly a US thing. Canadian prices have benefited. If a lot of wheat stays out all winter here it will change the price picture.

US domestic use of HRSW is forecast to be up in 2016/17. It is probable that Canadian HRSW exports to the states will be up some this year. US wheat exports have been up compared to last year.


Also the Minneapolis cash price for delivery Chicago and beyond has seen an increasing spread over MWZ16 futures for Minneapolis/Duluth delivery. Over the years this spread has at times been a lot higher than it is now. It may be showing that domestic demand is increasing.

[farmaholic]

Without KVD and even the ability for graders to distinguish the difference when KVD was an issue, we now have to sign variety declarations.


My biggest fear is that Canada's supposed reputation as a supplier of high quality wheat will be eroded to the lowest common denominator of wheat on the international market. Is there any benefit from differentiating and branding it as anything more? There needs to be a premium for Producers to continue to grow this lower yielding "quality" wheat.

Very good point made that all the wheat varieties being reclassified into lower value classes all made up Canada's quality wheat classes in the past. Now if they could only do the same with fusarium damage and make it not as big an issue as it is being made out to be now! (Depending on who it affects)How things can change!

I am lucky with wheat this year.... good yields and 14Px with it grading a 1 or 2 depending on who you talk to(LOL).

Funny,,,, there's never too much fertilizer, fungicide, herbicide, etc. at least a lot of the times it isn't reflected in the price of it. But wheat.....the world is swimming in it. Just like Grassy's pictures in a previous thread indicate! Ya ya... I know they got no money to buy it but their ****ing governments probably do!

[farmaholic]

101, weather/whether or not the remaining wheat gets harvested I think it will be safe to assume it will be junk. There could be sprouting if it finally warms up, weight loss, mildew, lodged yield losses....it ain't going to be pretty! So I don't see how those extra stocks of shit wheat could hold quality milling wheat prices down.

[farming101]

You could be right. So far, the guys who have poor wheat are getting beat up and the guys with good stuff are being handed a few dimes.
A bigger disconnect with quality wheat taking off could happen. It all depends what Canada can do in the next few months for sales. Aussie harvest could change the picture.