If I was a Canola buyer I wouldn't increase the price now!

[SASKFARMER3]

If i was a buyer of Canola for a company in Canada the last thing I would be doing now is purchasing Canola from Farmers.

Let them play in the mud, dry, pray what ever and get as much of the crop off as they can. Keep the price low as long as I can.

Then in December when the final nail is in the coffin for the Big super 2016 crop that was so bragged about. Start to increase the price. Oh wait then their is the Christmas shut down. Nothing gets done the last two weeks of December.

Increase the price a bit in Jan to keep my crush plants just at min but still operating. Because end of January I have farmers with some very big bills to pay and if they have Canola left in the field they are desperate for getting it sold.

If that doesn't work throw in all export sales to china are off so we don't have to compete.


ATTACH]763[/ATTACH]
Then once we get into Feb start the Big South America crop coming wow is it huge big big and bigger.

March 15 is the next day that all FCC are due and wow more fun as a buyer as again now farmers really need cash because if this isn't paid no one can buy again and play the game again in 2017.

April wait for it Canada will grow the largest Canola Crop ever. AH prices drop on that news.

Then June the crop is so so but here we go again Australia is on verge of harvesting the biggest canola crop ever even if its still in the seed bags and not seeded.

Ah the game of a Canola buyer.

Sad but most of what I typed is true.

[redleaf]

You forgot the part where ( USA or South America ) hasn't even started in the field but they are going to grow the biggest soybean crop ever !!
Ha ha ha

[SASKFARMER3]

Yea that one always makes me chuckle. But then you have Europe has the best ever coming yet it hasn't rained and most wont make it this winter due to dry conditions. But best crop ever.

All reports are bull shit.

Like the one that Saskatchewan only has 19% left to harvest. Take a drive at 19% you would see a quarter every 8 miles Ah some places you have to drive 8 miles to see one harvested.

Bull shit and more bull shit.

[biglentil]

At least with canola they don't play the grade game like Durum wheat. Out of the same pail sent three samples 1st to SGS next two to line cos got fuz of .6,2.1, .8 and hvk of 81,21,63 respectively. So almost a #1 but automatically a #3 or #4 depending on whos eyes look at it. What grade do you think they will sell it as?

[furrowtickler]

With some harvest about to resume in the south part of western Canada we may be seeing a peak right now for a while.
Soy harvest is running very well now in the U.S. with warm dry weather , even in the areas that were wet.
Time will tell but not much optimism for those with snow covered fields and yet anouther day without sun.
If you might be able to harvest shortly at all , I would quit complaining and think about how to handle the tough canola and get it moved ASAP if this market starts to ease at all . This may very well be a peak "weather" we like it or not for a while.
For the most part the yield will still be good for those who did not get the brunt of the last 15 days continuous bad weather. Prices are well above $10 , take it and run if you can, and be Thankfull .
There is virtually zero chance for some areas.

[farming101]

I agree.
The market is still paying storage out till Feb-May period depending on company, or charging for immediate delivery whichever way you look at it.

[SASKFARMER]

Funny the ones done harvest can't get the joke!

Ask yourself if you knew 5 m tons is out yet out of 18 and that equals 13. Would you get excited to bid up prices let the fools harvest then maybe increase prices.

Then in dec watch the excuses be coming.

[furrowtickler]

No I get it , just saying it is what it is. There will be some canola crop coming off and the U.S. soybean crop is coming off and all reports are that its big .
If your going to be lucky to get your canola off sometime in the next two weeks you will be in far far better shape than those who will have no chance at all.
The price will most likely be pressured down over the next 10-14 days if the current weather forecast holds. Time will tell .

[boarderbloke]

In a way SF3, I think the graincos are doing that. The pit price has only gone up because of the futures. Guy's buying back positions, maybe shorts getting out due to the amount still remaining in the field. But the graincos haven't changed basis, at least in our area, still an obscene amount,IMO. Some farmers are pricing now, maybe need some room or want to sell some straight cut canola, but most are likely thinking(like you and me) that's there's more upside than down. Graincos are getting a trickle coming in, so why would they narrow the basis.

[TASFarms]

Really thinking hard about opening a margin account to buy a retarted amount of cheap canola.

[boarderbloke]

furrow, I like your point, Even if this dip in the jet stream moves east, (bringing them cool, cloudy, damper weather), to include the "Midwest", beans will be easier to harvest than corn, heck combine beans there will still be easier to harvest than flax will be here.

Beans and straight canola were the first crops guys were getting back into after the last big rain. Bean stalks easy to put through, and separate the grain from, compared to trying to put flax straw through and TRYING to SEPERATE the SEED from the TOUGH STRAW.

[blackpowder]

Be careful with margin accounts or your handle could well be Tasfarmed.

[furrowtickler]

Yup just pointing out that this may be a high for canola prices for a little while if some of this canola crop starts to come off again
Agree S/F that there will still be a lot left out that will not get harvested but I can see a small blip coming from the current prices and if you need to move it shortly this might be a pricing opertunity short term .
Long term you are right that is a game but that's been part of that business for nearly a century.
If you have a chance to get your crop off just be thank full and try not to complain . There are guys out there with millions of dollars of crop under snow that they may have to burn come spring.

[grassfarmer]

.....Like the one that Saskatchewan only has 19% left to harvest. Take a drive at 19% you would see a quarter every 8 miles Ah some places you have to drive 8 miles to see one harvested.

Bull shit and more bull shit.

At least you qualified your comments with your closing statement. If you drove 8 miles you would pass 32 quarters (16 on each side). 19% unharvested would result in you passing 6 unharvested quarters on average. Your 1 quarter every 8 miles scenario would indicate 3% unharvested.

#Math is hard.

[furrowtickler]

Standing canola from two days ago in an area with some snow. A lot of areas far worse.