The Ukrainians are producing for all of Europe. Onlu US and Mexico, so only US for good market. Too bad, kids have Ipads now instead of birds. Guys going out of durum may substitute Canary, then we could see downward pressure, but then a little drought might reverse trend, who knows?
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Canary seed Stocks/Use and Prices...
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Statscan has no reliable data on stocks. I know several farms with unreported stocks. One guy with 50,000 plus bu.
When I was delivering some reds to a local processor I asked about canary prices and why they haven't seen a bump. The guy's reply was when the market softens and he drops the price, product comes in from everywhere.
It is going to take a 2002 type drought to fix that.
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sdg....here in the slum of the Ghetto we only grew it twice.....first time ever it only ran about 25 and combined fairly easy, second time about 10 bpa and was like combining rolls of barbed wire....last time we grew it!
Niche limited market crop....easily over produced.
I too think there is WAY more out there than is reported!
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He's probably tired of getting ****ed by durum. Or wants to grow some personally because he thinks canary is ready to soar to a new price altitude or wants everyone to grow it so there's lots of cheap seed to handle. My money is on.....aaaaa forget it the tinfoil hat fell off!
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We saw 54.5 cents/lb in 1994. Now that was money that emptied all of our bins. We kept the grain commission at our farm certing every container because we were in the middle of a power struggle between 2 companies. The reason: there was a short crop did not fill presold commitments. Oh yeh, both companies were out of the Canaryseed business, and one out of business. So Farma- fill em up and wait for pay-day. Good as gold, haha.
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Sorry, I don't follow this site that much anymore, marketing information is generally frowned upon here.
The issue with the canaryseed market is the hidden inventory. StatCan says there is 5000 MT @ July 31 and i feel it is more likely 75000 MT. The trade shipped 20000 MT in Aug and Sept and this was strictly old crop canaryseed as harvest on canary was late this year. The trade had another 10000 MT in stocks i would guess, and price was sloppy at harvest. It was impossible to be at 5000 MT at harvest. The real stocks to use is likely closer to 35-40%. Farmers don't tell StatCan what they are seeding and/or lower the yield reports and this hidden inventory matters in the end. StatCan report may alter price in long run but true supply and demand will move the price long term. So part of the problem is oversupply.
Canada generally had a record yield per acre. Lots of 30-40 bu crops. Sure some poorer crops but generally i have never heard as many high yield reports/acre as i did this past year. So this increases the supply once again on top of the hidden inventory.
Third issue is currency. EU and Mexico currency is weak vs the USD. In fact Mexico Peso, the market that sets the tone for canary, is at an all time low. Sure CAD is weak which helps, but Mexico is even weaker. They will not allow them to build inventory. They bought 25 cent product this summer and it has went down ever since. Slight pop late Oct when we thought that 50% of the canary would not be harvested.
Fourth issue is demand. US was one of the top four markets and now sits at only 10000 MT per year. Indonesia has come from nowhere and is offsetting this drop so that helps, but USA not an important market anymore. Europe is still taking normal quantities and Ukraine is not selling anything to them. Whoever told sumdumguy that was wrong. Sure some product (7-10000) MT comes from eastern Europe but that is normal. saying all this overall demand is projected at 130,000 MT. We have 225000 MT so sloppy market. Maybe it is 200,000 of supply this year, still wont make a difference.
Fifth - acres likely increase this next year as guys shift out of durum due to fusarium. We have signed some contracts for new crop at 18.5 cents/lb delivered. THree years ago our new crop prices where 18.5 cents/lb so not a surprise, although i dont really feel market will trade below that number, but it is where the current crop pricing will head towards. With normal production and average crop this year i expect canary to price at 18.5 by mid June. Margins at processing level are low as demand sucks.
Personally i am seeding 900 acres of canary and had none in last year. Too scared of fusarium on durum and having a mess to deal with. I have priced some of this prior to Xmas. I would think i am 45-55% sold on new crop canary on my farm.
I hope we see a pop along the way so i can sell more.
Incidentally, i have been quoted on all of the above in different locations for the past 6 months. Even the last 20 months have been a similar slide. I am pretty bearish pricing of all special crops. Red lentil pricing is creeping into all lentils. If growing small or large green lentils consider getting them priced. It is slowly grinding lower.
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I did a bunch of interviews at Crop Show but it was mainly about the human consumption of canaryseed. I think this will long term have impact on the market but it will be years before it impacts real demand at the grower level. Canary has some amazing traits.
The issues and the feel of this market has been the same since last June. I may have been interviewed about market trend as well i cant really remember.
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