Canola slides as farmers get nice weather!

[SASKFARMER3]

Funny yesterday the markets in the USA went up and the soy crop is getting bigger. But yet in Canada where farmers sat one whole month waiting to get back into the fields Canola tanks.
Great the Retarded sister again proves the market is never wrong.

Well funny all harvesting now is close to tough or damp or down right wet.
Spoilage is possible even if you dry. Aeration is nice to freeze the crop but you still have to get out of the bin.
So to the experts with the grain companies. who want a product for nothing keep dropping it.

Funny One company i deal with has all their slots used up till February for delivery.

Here is a question i have do they know that buy February all the shit that is going to heat will heat and that way they can squeeze some canola from farmers right up to the time the bins start firing up. Then you have the panic sellers selling because the neighbours went boom.

Just saying what happened in one week that every single farmer filled every single slot right up till Mid Feb?

But the Canola market isn't a fracking game.

[SASKFARMER3]

Canola futures finished weaker on Monday, as warm, dry weather allowed Prairie farmers to resume harvesting.
The Prairie harvest was stalled throughout much of October due to cold, wet and snowy conditions, leaving a significant portion of the 2016 canola still out in the field. However, the weather is now improving, with current good conditions expected to last into the weekend.
“When it comes to canola, it’s all still down to weather. If we get a bunch more off, it could push the market even lower,” said a Winnipeg-based trader.
Canola was also undermined by weakness in Malaysian palm oil, and the large U.S. soybean harvest, which is now mostly complete. Some strength in the Canadian dollar weighed on canola as well.
On the other side, gains in the U.S. soy complex provided some support, as did the record Prairie canola crush pace. Traders were also hesitant to push canola values too low ahead of Tuesday's U.S. presidential election.
January canola was down $4.10 at $504.30, March lost $3.30 to $509.80 and May fell $2.50 to $512.50.

[4GFarms]

Canola back up alongside beans today. Not sure if today or tomorrow is a usda report but as long as the combines are rolling I think there is more downside pressure. Sold a large chunk yesterday as the forecast looks good for awhile and I had seen enough downside pressure on the futures. Possibility of spoilage for sure but if not then the more canola off means more to sell. Farmer selling probably pressuring prices as well.

[furrowtickler]

Not unexpected as long as the combines are moving and more or this canola comes off . Last Monday was the day to sell.
The market knows they will get most of the canola coming off now without buying it. It is what it is.

[farming101]

Could 2016-17 canola carryout be halved with this lousy weather?

Locally, nearby prices have backed off but spring delivery basis is improving.

[SASKFARMER3]

Im figuring that with spoilage and lower yields due to snow plus crop left out plus spoilage in early harvested due to this warm weather as guys are looking at last harvested bins and figuring the early is ok. We have plus 18 today and tomorrow watch in 10 days.

So carry will be low. Plus they always talk up big crop but that has ended.

[4GFarms]

Furrow, I never sell at the top!! Haha. Went more along the profit side and sold to make sure I stay in the profit area. I sold so it should go up from here!!

[jake550]

Not sure where you haul but Yorkton has lots of room. Guys cancelling loads because they're busy combining. (Understandable)

But they're hardly booked till February.

[farmaholic]

" Last Monday was the day to sell. "

That is hindsight marketing.... too late if you didn't! But the opportunity will likely present itself again. Hopefully.

The downturn was expected if the combines got back in the fields.... everything about spoilage is potentially real... there will be grain lost to spoilage. There was grain lost to shelling/shatter. How is the bushel weight of the grain? I bet there is still some that will stay out over winter. This crop never got bigger but shrank!

[jamesb]

In the market info I get the jist is that while the canola left in the field can affect prices, the real market maker is the palm oil issues this year and the enormous south American production that is in a wide range of production stages. I'm told that the world trade while aware of the production issues in Canada really don't see it as the market movers. As an aside what I do find interesting is the fact that while production of oilseeds is going up around the world, veg oil demand is still rolling along. (unlike wheat)

[furrowtickler]

I did not sell either , was going to do a couple hunderd tn to open up the rest of our hopper bins . Thought I could squeeze one more day out of the rally lol
Now just hope to get $10 .
Lol , I never seem to hit the high either .
But we are 50% sold now so no real panic , just would be nice to get the tops off the remaining bins before winter sets back in

[seabass]

Not sure how its gonna go but been hearing lots of white, molded and sprouted canola coming off. Will be down graded but still more production.
I think we cap the price potential by forward pricing when a company dangles a carrot with a premium.

[fjlip]

UP $8/T this morning...