Don't Sell Any Wheat This Week

[furrowtickler]

We had a big investor pull out of a proposed bio diesel plant locally a few years back - the reason was no solid commitment on government bio fuel mandates . Westernvickie did a lot of good work on that. It was frustrating because Ritz would not give any answers and Harper would not push the mandated levels .

[biglentil]

Would be relatively simple to convert the coal plants to burn wheat. Carbon neutral!

[WiltonRanch]

Would be relatively simple to convert the coal plants to burn wheat. Carbon neutral!

A good use for commercial salvage or fuz infected wheat lol.

[farmaholic]

They say the "vomitoxin" in the DDG can cause problems in feed rations if its too high.

Anyone?

[wmoebis]

They say the "vomitoxin" in the DDG can cause problems in feed rations if its too high.

Anyone?

Yes especially in hog rations.

[westernvicki]

Funny you would mention that "Furrowtickler" was looking out to office window just the other day to the plot of land where the plant would have been, and thinking about the dynamics it takes to build opportunity. Taxation was not on the list.

[iceman]

Obama announced record ethanol quotas that refiners must adhere to in 2017. Don't think the market has fully digested the news with the announcement coming right before US Thanksgiving. Next week should be a good one for the grain sector. Lets hope the turkey hangover has worn off by then.

IMO this canola rally is to be sold into. Highly unlikely we break above 535 in the front month. My feeling anyways.

Iceman out

[oneoff]

It could be that ethanol mandates contributed greatly to past decent prices for farm production. Would be nice to know why ethanol production never did take off in Canada. Of course CNG never did any better and in other parts of the world maybe 25% of heavy vehicles and commercial vehicles/buses are on the roads. Probably old story of landlocked and thousands of miles to ports and markets.


It also could be an industry that just doesn't fit in with distance to markets for distillers grains and maybe even our climate that can be more difficult to extract moisture necessary to prevent spoilage. Whatever the reasons that ethanol plants aren't here and can't seem to be profitable; it does illustrate that ideas that are feasible elsewhere; don't necessarily fit in Canada

There is a parallel there for those who would push wind and solar. Keep your eyes open or you fall into obvious traps that should be avoided less you wish for serious damage for a region.

There's also a possibility that a project can be designed to fail and/or it never did fit in with some master scheme

[oneoff]

This from Bloomberg


The Obama administration is forcing refiners to use a record amount of biofuel next year, delivering a victory to Midwest farmers at the expense of oil companies that say they are struggling with the program’s costs.
Under quotas the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced Wednesday, refiners must mix 19.28 billion gallons of renewable fuel into the U.S. gasoline and diesel supply next year, including up to 15 billion gallons of traditional, corn-based ethanol.
The mandates are above levels the agency proposed in May and also above last year’s requirements. For the first time, the targets match a 15 billion-gallon ceiling that Congress established for conventional renewable fuels in creating a program to boost their use 11 years ago.
The 2017 quotas are certain to increase pressure on Congress and President-elect Donald Trump to overhaul the Renewable Fuel Standard. While Trump is unlikely to rescind the new targets now that they have been finalized, he may support efforts to overhaul it by Congress.
Trump’s Take
During his campaign, Trump had varying views of the program. In Iowa early this year, Trump said the U.S. should increase biofuel mandates. But in September, his campaign issued a fact sheet calling for the elimination of the system for buying and selling biofuel blending credits, following criticism from billionaire investor Carl Icahn. His campaign later reissued the fact sheet without the language opposing the system.
The EPA’s decision is good news for biofuel backers and Midwest leaders who had argued that climbing gasoline demand justified hitting that 15 billion cap. Americans are on track to consume a record 144 billion gallons of gasoline this year, according to an October forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Bob Dinneen, president of the Renewable Fuels Association, said the move "will send a positive signal to investors."
‘New Interest’
"By signaling its commitment to a growing biofuels market, the agency will stimulate new interest in cellulosic ethanol and other advanced biofuels, drive investment in infrastructure to accommodate E15 and higher ethanol blends, and make a further dent in reducing greenhouse gas emissions," Dinneen said in an e-mailed statement.
Jeff Broin, chairman of POET LLC, the nation’s second-largest ethanol producer, praised the EPA for "holding firm to the letter of the law despite enormous pressure from oil interests."
Oil companies blasted the move, arguing that the 2017 quotas push them beyond a “blend wall” where they are forced to mix a higher proportion of ethanol into fuel than the 10 percent level approved for use in all cars and trucks. Oil companies and industry trade groups had unsuccessfully lobbied the Obama administration to keep total ethanol levels at 9.7 percent of gasoline demand -- an amount that would provide a buffer below the conventional 10 percent blend while also accommodating sales of ethanol-free gasoline coveted by boaters.
The EPA’s 2017 quotas push well beyond that threshold, and translate to roughly an 11.2 percent blend of ethanol from both advanced and conventional corn-based sources, FBR & Co. said in a research note to clients.

[chuckChuck]

The renewable fuel standard is an indirect subsidy to US farmers and benefits Canadian farmers with higher prices. Imagine what would happen if all that corn and soybeans had to find another market besides bio-fuel? It would be a market disaster.

Freemarket loving farmers have become dependent on this subsidy program.

There is not much of a case to promote bio-fuels for environmental benefit if you consider all the energy that goes into the crops.