Canola at this rate most could be out by spring!

[SASKFARMER3]

I have one neighbour that could be out by Christmas and they seed over 10000 acres of Canola. We will be down to 40% Gone by the New Year. We are also one of the farms that usually has canola around going into July or August.
Lots are delivering to the Crushers as they are crushing gang busters. In Yorkton their is no Delivery for any one till end of Feb or March unless its already contracted.

So WTF is going on. Yes 11 to 11.50 is a great price but this is being paid by a market with a insane basis close to 35 to 40 a ton.

So is the world a wash in canola. No Europe had a shit show.

Is it Palm oil?

But maybe maybe Canada didn't produce the huge crop that farmers bull shit about. Really after the harvest from hell in November and the amount still out in the fields was Canadian production actually close to my guess of 16.7mt.

Time will tell but funny how deliveries are happening and it is moving.

[farmaholic]

I think the smaller crop has been factored into the current prices.

This canola crop will probably get smaller yet, just wait for the heating canola bin/bag stories to start. Lots came off in less than ideal storage condition.

[ajl]

Lots of people stuffed 14 to 16% canola in bags here thinking they are a magic bullet. If the weather cycles up and down I think they are not going to last long. There is still canola in the field here (Edmonton east) including some of mine and some of the harvested stuff will get delivered to the slough (lots of those to fill) so the canola crop is smaller. The insane basis is due to the tough canola being pushed to the elevators right now but when that is worked hrough there will be some fire works.

[Partners]

Same old story.price it now or wait till Feb. March.for the same price.
RP to Yorkton down amost a dollar a bushel in the last week for Feb. Must be full.
Bunge down 30 cents from yesterday going to Altona.

[jamesb]

You said it . Its palm oil.
Got to think world wide guys. Yes western Canada canola has an effect on markets but its Soy and palm that really drives the market. With issues in palm oil this year, this is a major factor in the oilseed markets. The production problems coupled with high demand for veg oil have what have moved the market. I am optimistic that veg oils have a good future for the next year because production is just meeting demand with no huge stocks like we see in wheat. I know its easy to look at our neighbours and what happen here in Sask but in reality we are small players in the big picture. I'm told on the global stage the huge amount of Canola that was in the field the beginning of Nov really didn't have much of an effect on the world veg oil trade. Palm oil is where it is right now

[Oliver88]

There will be a lot of interesting factors this year.

How much heating will there be?
All swathed canola harvested after October 4th seemed to be in the 13-20% range.

Over wintering of canola will be a big factor.
I was talking to a crop insurance rep and he mentioned there are some years where canola has wintered well (2011) but usually there are significant yield, weight and grade losses.

I am thinking most of the accelerated canola deliveries is because people are likely paranoid to keep tough canola in bins even if it's been dried down fearing moisture levels bouncing back.

[Richard5]

Guys need cash S3. Maybe you can sit back a bit because you have some funds in the bank and good working capital for the next 6 months

For many others this year will be very hard on the financials. Drying costs are high, quality issues for many crops resulting on poor cash returns.

For some its a fear of spoilage and to me that shouldn't be a fear. It just takes time to watch the bins and take care of your business. I hear too many young guys that want an "app" to tell them the bin temp and how much is left. Technology is nice but it comes at a cost.

For operations that have bought huge amounts of land and racked up the debt they need to price there crop when it pencils in some profit. Then there are others flipping equipment often, they need to pay for all of this.

Its a very slippery slope out there, i think many are crashing now.

My two bits, as a conservative operator

[furrowtickler]

A lot of heated canola showing up at local elevators. Not unexpected given the harvest conditions. But the amount has increased dramatically this past week . The harvest from hell for some is carrying on . Keeping canola in condition is going to be a battle for some. Not fun for those who already had a tough harvest.
What kinda surprises me a bit is the canola price is holding decent considering the push into the elevator system. This probably accounts for the deliveries to be as high as they are . It will be good long term to go into summer with low stocks after a supposed "big crop".
Hopefully guys don't find too much heated canola , never fun to deal with.
We took a 700 bus "sample" from every bin to the elevator last week just to be sure after hear elevator reports of high amounts of heated canola starting to filter in . So far so good , cool and dry but it makes one a bit nervous .

[MBgrower]

There is lots of dedicated uses for canola for frying, particularly in the usa. Can they easily switch to cheaper soy?? I imagine many cannot. So does canada really matter? I bet it does. Dont always believe half educated market advisors.