And the Experts Way in on Canola and Wheat Production! HA HA they have no clue!

[Partners]

One farm by quill lake had 4000 acres out last yr..
Fellow by Wadena had 2000 acres out last yr..
Some never get done regardless of the fall.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes that is true.

[HappyFarmer]

Put some substance behind your number please old wise sf3..i take it you havnt sold any canola since harvest is over correct????

Your basically saying we will be out of canola by may then correct?

[SASKFARMER3]

I did do a contract about a week ago for dec for 50000 bushels priced just right. Yes it was almost two dollars higher than the lowest fall price. Some times you win some times you fail. But crop is moving and yes lots will be out by May. Yes I believe it's not as big of crop as they were bragging.

[newguy]

Lots of moisture low fertilizer price and a bit higher fall price on canola for next fall.Expect big acres of canola for next year.These big acres will hold back any big rallies this summer.

[Klause]

You should of stopped in !

I was thinking about it... But ran out of time to make Saskatoon.

Text me sometime... two three one seven six seven three I'll be up there again before Christmas from the looks of things.

[HappyFarmer]

I did do a contract about a week ago for dec for 50000 bushels priced just right. Yes it was almost two dollars higher than the lowest fall price. Some times you win some times you fail. But crop is moving and yes lots will be out by May. Yes I believe it's not as big of crop as they were bragging.

Still didn't answer my question completely but I expected that.

Hmm funny.....cause if you think it's a 16.9 crop and we have used over 6 already, with shitty basis levels, no inverse in the market, that it doesn't feel like a 16.9 crop.

But what about do I know

I just wanna get my facts straight so that at the end of July when we have used 19.5 that I can call bullshit on you Joe.

[farmaholic]

.....the 2.6 mmt difference will be carryforward from 15/16...lol

[Oliver88]

Still didn't answer my question completely but I expected that.

Hmm funny.....cause if you think it's a 16.9 crop and we have used over 6 already, with shitty basis levels, no inverse in the market, that it doesn't feel like a 16.9 crop.

But what about do I know

I just wanna get my facts straight so that at the end of July when we have used 19.5 that I can call bullshit on you Joe.

One factor this year that is a larger issue than normal is accelerated selling due to several million tonnes being taken off at extremely high moisture levels. Even after its dried down it isn't ideal to let it have a birthday in the bin.
More selling than normal off the combine occurred as well to free up aeration bins.

This added selling likely widened the basis level.

I agree with SF3's estimate since I believe there is several MMT of canola in the field still.

Just my 2 cents.

[tweety]

Despite the farmers 'knowledge' the estimates year after year are pretty close.

"Canola bins are heating i've heard." Well that's gotta be at least a couple million tonnes, right?

Reality check time!

What's the plan for next year? More fertilizer, more fungicide, more expensive seed, to get ahead of the rest. I can bushel my way to the top.

If you can at least laugh at how stupid we are, its makes it a lot easier.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yea over producing works so well.

[vvalk]

Yea over producing works so well.

From my neck of the woods in southern Alberta there was record canola yields ( it was below avg rainfall) and talking to other farmers from across western Canada mostly say the same thing. Even hear in rosetown area which was record wet and sub 10 bus lentils, that they were seeing 50+ bus canola. My sense is there is a lot of canola out there

[SASKFARMER3]

All those areas you mention had the similar yields to higher the years before.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Here, there is still significant crop out. My own yeilds were better than last year, inspite of snow, spring frost, snow, no rain all spring/early summer, snow, significant hail, snow, frost, snow, lodging, and not to mention, snow. Not sure what will be left by spring.

[checking]

I can tell you what will be left by next spring, ABF5.

Snow!