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Stats Canada! Wow the mention of snow was one little line.

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    Stats Canada! Wow the mention of snow was one little line.

    Canadian farmers reported increased production of wheat, canola, barley, soybean and lentils in 2016, while corn for grain and oats production were lower than in 2015.
    Significant amounts of snow in early October delayed harvest in some northern regions of Alberta and Saskatchewan. As a result, combining was not complete at the end of the survey period in these areas. Still, farmers in the affected areas were asked to provide their best estimates for their total crop production.
    Wheat
    Total wheat production is expected to increase 15.0% from a year earlier to 31.7 million tonnes in 2016. This marks the second time in five years that wheat production exceeded 30 million tonnes, with the other being the bumper crop of 37.5 million tonnes in 2013.

    The reported increase in total wheat production resulted from a higher average yield of 53.2 bushels per acre in 2016, up 24.3% from 42.8 bushels per acre in 2015. In contrast, the harvested area declined 7.3% to 21.9 million acres, the lowest level in five years.

    Alberta farmers reported a 19.4% increase in total wheat production to 9.9 million tonnes. This was the result of a 25.5% rise in average yield to 58.0 bushels per acre, while there was a 4.6% decrease in harvested acres from 2015 to 6.3 million acres.

    Similarly, farmers in Saskatchewan reported an 11.5% increase to 14.5 million tonnes, despite the fact harvested area declined by 1.6 million acres from 2015 to 11.3 million acres. The gain in total wheat production was the result of a 27.2% increase in average yield to 47.3 bushels per acre.

    Manitoba farmers reported 4.2 million tonnes of wheat production in 2016, virtually unchanged from 2015 levels.

    In Ontario, overall wheat production was reported at 2.5 million tonnes, mainly driven by a 56.0% increase in winter wheat harvested area over 2015, as well as a record high average yield of 90.9 bushels per acre, up 15.9% over 2015.
    Canola
    Canadian farmers reported producing 18.4 million tonnes of canola in 2016, virtually unchanged from 2015. This was a result of a record high average yield of 42.3 bushels per acre, surpassing the previous high mark of 40.6 bushels per acre during the 2013 bumper crop. This was offset, however, by a 6.6% decline in harvested acres to 19.2 million acres.

    Canola production in Saskatchewan was up 2.3% from 2015 to a record high 9.7 million tonnes in 2016. This was due to a record high yield of 41.2 bushels per acre (+8.7%), as harvested acreage decreased 5.9% from 2015 to 10.4 million acres.

    Alberta farmers reported a 1.2% decline in canola production from 2015 to 5.8 million tonnes. This was the result of an 11.0% drop in harvested acreage, as average yield also reached a record high 46.4 bushels per acre, almost five bushels more than the five-year average.

    In Manitoba, farmers reported that canola production fell 4.0% to 2.7 million tonnes. The harvested area reported was similar (-0.8%) to a year earlier, but the average yield declined 3.2% to 39.0 bushels per acre.
    Soybeans
    Nationally, soybean farmers reported record high production for an eighth consecutive year in 2016, up 1.4% from 2015 to 6.5 million tonnes.

    Manitoba farmers led the way with soybean production up 27.2% from a year earlier to 1.8 million tonnes. This was the result of record levels in both harvested acres (+14.1% to 1.6 million acres) and average yield (+11.6% to 41.3 bushels per acre).

    Ontario soybean growers reported that production was down 9.5% to 3.4 million tonnes in 2016. The harvested area fell 7.8% to 2.7 million acres. A lower average yield of 45.9 bushels per acre, down 1.9% compared with 2015, also contributed to the overall production decrease.

    Lentils
    Lentil production reached a record high in 2016, with output up 27.9% from a year earlier to 3.2 million tonnes. The increase in lentil production was the result of a 42.5% gain in harvested area to 5.7 million acres, as the average yield was 10.3% lower than last year at 1,248 pounds per acre.

    The majority of national lentil production originates in Saskatchewan, where growers reported producing 2.7 million tonnes in 2016. The harvested area was 5.2 million acres in this province, while the average yield declined 16.2% from 2015 to 1,167 pounds per acre.

    Barley and oats
    Barley production rose 6.8% to 8.8 million tonnes in 2016. This growth was attributable to a 12.9% increase in average yield to a record high 73.4 bushels per acre, as the harvested area decreased 5.6% over 2015 levels to 5.5 million acres.

    Conversely, Canadian oat farmers reported that production fell 8.2% from 2015 to 3.1 million tonnes. Despite a record high yield of 92.3 bushels per acre (up 8.2% from 2015), the production drop was due to a 15.1% decline in harvested area to 2.2 million acres.

    Well the Canola they think is 18.4 on farmers guessing how much was potentially left in the field.

    Take the rule of thumb that about 10% was left in the field due to snow and rain damage and unharvested thats 16.56 total production for 2016 and my guess of just under 17MT is closest to the truth.

    Ah farming where a Gov agency doesn't know jack shit what happens on a farm.

    Have a great day.
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    #2
    2014 2015 2016 2014 to 2015 2015 to 2016
    thousands of tonnes thousands of tonnes thousands of tonnes % change % change
    Total wheat1 29,420 27,594 31,729 -6.2 15.0
    Durum wheat 5,193 5,389 7,762 3.8 44.0
    Spring wheat 21,298 19,962 20,454 -6.3 2.5
    Winter wheat 2,929 2,243 3,513 -23.4 56.6
    Barley 7,119 8,226 8,784 15.5 6.8
    Canary seed 125 149 120 19.0 -19.4
    Canola 16,410 18,377 18,424 12.0 0.3
    Chick peas 123 84 75 -32.1 -9.9
    Corn for grain 11,487 13,559 13,193 18.0 -2.7
    Dry beans 273 243 229 -10.9 -5.9
    Dry field peas 3,810 3,201 4,836 -16.0 51.1
    Fall Rye 218 226 409 3.7 81.2
    Flaxseed 873 942 579 8.0 -38.5
    Lentils 1,987 2,541 3,248 27.9 27.9
    Mustard seed 198 123 234 -37.7 89.5
    Oats 2,979 3,428 3,147 15.1 -8.2
    Soybeans 6,049 6,371 6,463 5.3 1.4
    Sunflower seed 55 73 51 32.0 -30.3

    Comment


      #3
      What I'm saying to get to my estimate is farmers lie a little about yields Big bigger best.

      So if the stats Canada number is 18.4mt

      now the harvest from hell hit canola hard for yields early harvested tough canola had losses out the back and then the snow took some and the rain and snow took some. harvest equipment took some and loss in bin and dry down shrink etc. then their is the crop in the field that will make shit all or get harvested. so if you use a 10% rule this year thats 1.84 min the 18.4 and you have a crop the size of 16.56 then ill add in a extra to get it to the 16.9 i was saying.


      That my friends is the number of tons produced in Canada for canola.

      Have a great day!

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by SASKFARMER3 View Post
        Canadian farmers reported increased production of wheat, canola, barley, soybean and lentils in 2016, while corn for grain and oats production were lower than in 2015.

        .......Ah farming where a Gov agency doesn't know jack shit what happens on a farm.
        So if the farmers provide the information how can you blame the Government agency for having the wrong information?

        Comment


          #5
          .......and then the quality question.

          CGC Harvest Sample Program is probably skewed as well because of the late harves.....and is it a representative cross-section of Western Canada and Producers?

          Better than nothing?

          Comment


            #6
            Even though i don't believe your bullshit canola production number, good reason to be bullish.

            I still think they are low.

            Comment


              #7
              17.8 million some of which will never make the pit. My guess
              Checking out...

              Comment


                #8
                Apparently, these estimates were based on data collected before harvest weather improved in late November.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Happy explain why you don't believe my number.

                  Super canola area along the Sask border all way north on west side of the province has been growing big big yields of Canola. Paliser would not believe, but rain in a desert makes grain.

                  The yields were average to what their use to or below and some wasn't harvested.

                  Take alberta Canola alley and lots in the fields never to be harvested.

                  Take Manitoba switching to soy and Canola not a big deal.

                  Northern sask with crop out tough harvest shit show.

                  And yes I have a number below the experts guess.

                  So explain please why you think its better.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Errol at the time of the survey all were asked what they believed to be in the field I stated what was harvested so probably close but the harvested crop in November was less do to snow rain deer shrink etc. So what most would have reported in October was probably high.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Market has ignored this report as they should since it is irrelevant. Price for dry canola has rallied lately as there is 2 markets one for dry and another for wet. How much of the later makes it is anybodies guess. Still canola out in the field here.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by ajl View Post
                        Market has ignored this report as they should since it is irrelevant. Price for dry canola has rallied lately as there is 2 markets one for dry and another for wet. How much of the later makes it is anybodies guess. Still canola out in the field here.
                        Stats Can report considered irrelevant shortly after they released is becoming a serious problem. If our gov't reporting is that bad, what's the point? This also has the risk of messing up true price discovery for markets. I'm venting, but something has to change . . . .

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Crushers are running flat out printing money, canola supplies are going to be very tight

                          Comment


                            #14
                            I wounder if they could add in the quality factor ? May not be achievable but would give a better reflection of what's out there ?

                            AJL brings up a good point on canola , also a lot is heating on guys the past ten days. Almost 20% of the canola coming in now is showing moderate to severe heating . Some being turned away.
                            Wheat is anouther one. Sure a big durum number but 1/2 is garbage. HRSW is anouther iffy one.
                            Big yields don't mean much if 1/3 to 1/2 is falling into feed catagory as far as the export price goes.
                            End of the day , time will sort it out . But we do need a better price discovery system based not only on yield but grade at this time of year.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Well then SF3, with your estimate the sooner they start the price rationing the better it will be for everyone.

                              Not arguing with or supporting your number, just saying.

                              Is twelve dollars possible nearby?

                              Out to July might make it! July $541.90(9:50 Dec 06) or $12.29 zero basis. $12.79 basis nets twelve dollar canola.
                              Last edited by farmaholic; Dec 6, 2016, 10:03.

                              Comment

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