Stats Canada! Wow the mention of snow was one little line.

[ajl]

Market has ignored this report as they should since it is irrelevant. Price for dry canola has rallied lately as there is 2 markets one for dry and another for wet. How much of the later makes it is anybodies guess. Still canola out in the field here.

[errolanderson]

Market has ignored this report as they should since it is irrelevant. Price for dry canola has rallied lately as there is 2 markets one for dry and another for wet. How much of the later makes it is anybodies guess. Still canola out in the field here.

Stats Can report considered irrelevant shortly after they released is becoming a serious problem. If our gov't reporting is that bad, what's the point? This also has the risk of messing up true price discovery for markets. I'm venting, but something has to change . . . .

[bgmb]

Crushers are running flat out printing money, canola supplies are going to be very tight

[furrowtickler]

I wounder if they could add in the quality factor ? May not be achievable but would give a better reflection of what's out there ?

AJL brings up a good point on canola , also a lot is heating on guys the past ten days. Almost 20% of the canola coming in now is showing moderate to severe heating . Some being turned away.
Wheat is anouther one. Sure a big durum number but 1/2 is garbage. HRSW is anouther iffy one.
Big yields don't mean much if 1/3 to 1/2 is falling into feed catagory as far as the export price goes.
End of the day , time will sort it out . But we do need a better price discovery system based not only on yield but grade at this time of year.

[farmaholic]

Well then SF3, with your estimate the sooner they start the price rationing the better it will be for everyone.

Not arguing with or supporting your number, just saying.

Is twelve dollars possible nearby?

Out to July might make it! July $541.90(9:50 Dec 06) or $12.29 zero basis. $12.79 basis nets twelve dollar canola.

[tweety]

Aren't you the same group of wise farmers who said no one will be growing wheat?

[farmaholic]

Crush margin is about $120/tonne(ICE Canada canola board crush margin)..... yes, ONE HUNDRED TWENTY DOLLARS!!!!

Show me the money!

[wmoebis]

.......and then the quality question.

CGC Harvest Sample Program is probably skewed as well because of the late harves.....and is it a representative cross-section of Western Canada and Producers?

Better than nothing?

Although I am a strong supporter of the Harvest program I question how representative the submitted samples are. Do farmers send random samples or do they leave out ones that are obviously #1 or Feed and send the ones that are questionable.
Most farmers have submitted samples to various elevators by now. Farmers tell them how many bus each sample represents, bin # and they grade them. Wouldn't their results be closer, also it would give CGC a record of how accurate the elevators were grading, by comparing results. Farmer sends sample from 1 bin to 3 or 4 elevators if they are graded differently by elevators the CGC could investigate why the diff. More training needed or intentional.

[farmaholic]

tweety, only responsible farmers grow wheat ;-). We made money on wheat this year. Decent quality and quantity. Rotation, rotation, rotation. I don't like it and the fusarium struggles but... everyone couldn't grow canary, malt barley, oats, etc. without destroying the supply/demand ratios of those markets.

So we use it to help break disease cycles... that is almost a laughing matter(but not funny) in a continuous cropping scenario.

[farmaholic]

wmoebis,,, I sent three wheat samples alone. So I tried to give a decent cross section of what I had.

Grain grading results of the same sample in Western Canada.... unrepeatable accuracy! I know that probably drives you nuts! But it seems true.

Generally, the samples I sent to terminals and CGC official and harvest samples were all with in a "RANGE" of each other, would I like to see that range narrowed---oh yeah. Sad part is the small increments of grading specs between the grades makes it maddening. (Fusarium) .25% for a 1 to 2 CWRS or .5% from a 1 to 3 for CWAD. Those are really small numbers!!

Back to the "StatsCan't retort" ...lol.