Stats Canada! Wow the mention of snow was one little line.

[bgmb]

Crushers are running flat out printing money, canola supplies are going to be very tight

[furrowtickler]

I wounder if they could add in the quality factor ? May not be achievable but would give a better reflection of what's out there ?

AJL brings up a good point on canola , also a lot is heating on guys the past ten days. Almost 20% of the canola coming in now is showing moderate to severe heating . Some being turned away.
Wheat is anouther one. Sure a big durum number but 1/2 is garbage. HRSW is anouther iffy one.
Big yields don't mean much if 1/3 to 1/2 is falling into feed catagory as far as the export price goes.
End of the day , time will sort it out . But we do need a better price discovery system based not only on yield but grade at this time of year.

[farmaholic]

Well then SF3, with your estimate the sooner they start the price rationing the better it will be for everyone.

Not arguing with or supporting your number, just saying.

Is twelve dollars possible nearby?

Out to July might make it! July $541.90(9:50 Dec 06) or $12.29 zero basis. $12.79 basis nets twelve dollar canola.

[tweety]

Aren't you the same group of wise farmers who said no one will be growing wheat?

[farmaholic]

Crush margin is about $120/tonne(ICE Canada canola board crush margin)..... yes, ONE HUNDRED TWENTY DOLLARS!!!!

Show me the money!

[wmoebis]

.......and then the quality question.

CGC Harvest Sample Program is probably skewed as well because of the late harves.....and is it a representative cross-section of Western Canada and Producers?

Better than nothing?

Although I am a strong supporter of the Harvest program I question how representative the submitted samples are. Do farmers send random samples or do they leave out ones that are obviously #1 or Feed and send the ones that are questionable.
Most farmers have submitted samples to various elevators by now. Farmers tell them how many bus each sample represents, bin # and they grade them. Wouldn't their results be closer, also it would give CGC a record of how accurate the elevators were grading, by comparing results. Farmer sends sample from 1 bin to 3 or 4 elevators if they are graded differently by elevators the CGC could investigate why the diff. More training needed or intentional.

[farmaholic]

tweety, only responsible farmers grow wheat ;-). We made money on wheat this year. Decent quality and quantity. Rotation, rotation, rotation. I don't like it and the fusarium struggles but... everyone couldn't grow canary, malt barley, oats, etc. without destroying the supply/demand ratios of those markets.

So we use it to help break disease cycles... that is almost a laughing matter(but not funny) in a continuous cropping scenario.

[farmaholic]

wmoebis,,, I sent three wheat samples alone. So I tried to give a decent cross section of what I had.

Grain grading results of the same sample in Western Canada.... unrepeatable accuracy! I know that probably drives you nuts! But it seems true.

Generally, the samples I sent to terminals and CGC official and harvest samples were all with in a "RANGE" of each other, would I like to see that range narrowed---oh yeah. Sad part is the small increments of grading specs between the grades makes it maddening. (Fusarium) .25% for a 1 to 2 CWRS or .5% from a 1 to 3 for CWAD. Those are really small numbers!!

Back to the "StatsCan't retort" ...lol.

[bucket]

And yet the railways don't have to move much more than 500000 tonnes a week to the west coast.....no panic.

[Guest]

It's never as a big as they say !

1. rain and snow in western Canada and drought and flooding in USA take grain !

2. they say and do anything to give less !

3. pathetic !

I agree , and no one ever goes back and asks why they were so far out ? it's a joke ?

[MBgrower]

Soy outyielded canola in manitoba. Bye bye mb canola acres next year. Beans will be grown from winterpeg to dauphin next summer.

[HappyFarmer]

Happy explain why you don't believe my number.

Super canola area along the Sask border all way north on west side of the province has been growing big big yields of Canola. Paliser would not believe, but rain in a desert makes grain.

The yields were average to what their use to or below and some wasn't harvested.

Take alberta Canola alley and lots in the fields never to be harvested.

Take Manitoba switching to soy and Canola not a big deal.

Northern sask with crop out tough harvest shit show.

And yes I have a number below the experts guess.

So explain please why you think its better.

1.Generally, guys went and got canola in November and left wheat, barley, oats, etc. I cant see if guys could get on the field why you would leave canola over a cereal, swathed or not

2. I get there are really bad pockets out there of unharvested canola....but does it really add up to that much in the big picture. Call it AB 10 %, Sask 5 % MB 1 % at most. Let call it 7% left average.

3. Yields AB good.Sask generally good, MB RR valley average or below average, everywhere else good.

4. Call it 20 million acres seed@ 7 % unharvested is 18.6, a tonne per acre average is 18.6 mil crop.

I just cant see the farmer moving 7 million tonnes into the system already if he only has 17.0 to sell. I mean do you really feel farmers on average have moved (and by moved i mean delivered, not sold) 41 % of their canola crop already????That would be a record if it is true and I just don't see it.

5. Sit back and think about last year. You ( and me i might add) all called a shit crop, to dry to long, yada, yada yada and we still moved 18 million tonnes into the system. We were wrong and you (and me) have to admit it. I don't know about everyone else one here but i seldom run into or talk to anyone how took off less canola this year than last year.


At the end of the day this whole how big this crop is should be put to bed and forgotten about. We should care more about this veg oil demand/meal demand story. Is it hear to last or not? It sure looks to be but i still think it has some cracks in it that might break open yet. I have no idea what will happen but what I do know that is that the market cares more right now about that story vs a bunch of crazy farmer arguing how big the canola crop is.

I respect you opinion...but don't agree with it.

Just put some substance around your number next time.