Statcan production estimate today

[charliep]

Statscan released their next round of Canadian crop production estimates. They can be found at:

http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/031003/d031003a.htm

Thoughts?

[timm]

trade expecting slightly higher # on canola .looking at soy monthly 94-98,74 cent $,very seldom this bullish oil move this early.also oil contents at harrowby quite average,talking to ray elliot this am .(rumors around this is partly why wide basis)

[timm]

Saskatchewan Canola Oil Content

http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/Quality/Canola/2003/03canoil-e.pdf

1999 - 43.9%
2000 - 43.7%
2001 - 42.9%
2002 - 42.8
2003 - 41.0

The quality survey is only based on 391 samples to date so could change. The majority of canola is exported with a 42% oil guarantee.

[charliep]

A couple of questions.

1) Any comments on factors impacting oil content/why this year? Drought stress? New varieties?

2) Heard anything on meal quality?

3) Are any buyers paying for oil content? Seems strange to complain on the one hand and not pay for higher quality on the other.

[wd9]

Are there any producers that actually give sta*ts c*an reliable numbers?