CAD and HRSW

[farming101]

CAD ending the year on a weak note, no longer tracking oil values



#2 13.5 bids of $6.70 for next summer are out there
Export values for Oct 16 were 7.60-7.75 for #2 according to CIMTD

[farmaholic]

101.... what do you think is a fair basis for CWRS? Hard to put it all together, what is the real cost charged(/t) for moving a unit train to port? Elevation--somewhat elastic as far as I'm concerned? Inspection fees. Blending gains to GrainCos(that rightly belongs to them if everyone is getting their grain bought for what it is). Cleaning upgrading(same as blending gains...theirs if they're doing the work).

[farming101]

My idea is that $1 a bushel is a great deal in this day and age. The numbers I mentioned above are not a true comparison but my thinking is with world markets where they are right now 6.70 for #2 13.5 next summer is not too shabby.

Rail freight alone averaged $32.90-$34.61 for western Canadian grain in 2015-16 under MRE

[bucket]

I don't understand something...farmers pay the freight to the west coast but expect a prairie price.... 8.85 at the west coast and 6.20 at moose jaw.... and about the same movement as when we had the other entity....and the basis is reported as a positive 30.....don't go there bucket .....we are getting really good prices why complain....

[farming101]

Bucket, not sure what the prices are at the coast exactly but 8.85? are you sure.
Portland Oregon is quoting 5.74-6.08 USD today for #1 DNS 13%. About 7.97-8.55 CAD when you factor in the dollar and bushel weight
Canada has not exported a lot of #1 HRS this year

[stonepicker]

Who cares what the basis is, it's what YOU get per bushel that counts! Too many on here are worried that somebody else might make some money on the wht. they sold.

[farmaholic]

Oh come on Stoney....we all know everyone in the chain needs to make some money performing their part of the process. It's when reasonable net margins turn into gross net margins others in the chain feel like they've been jerked around.

How would you like to see the pieces of the export price pie(per bushel or per tonne) divied up? Based on what? Investment, risk, greed, need? I'm not doing this to make razor thin margins above COP....and aren't either....just saying though. Whats "fair" based on "what"?

[stonepicker]

What i'm saying is, too many people are more worried about someone else making some money instead of worrying about their own bottom line. It comes down to jealousy imo, that's what made the --- popular with some, because they didn't want their neighbor to get more than them.

[farming101]

Reject durum is a bad deal this year
3AD should be paying $1-1.50 more than it is

[farmaholic]

I still say the fusarium and vomitoxin sticks are the weapons of choice today... Who here only eats cereal grains in their diet? Day in day out every meal? Measuring in parts per million.... Tolerances that may as well be zero.... Like some other grading demerits(mildew and ergot) that got "toned down" after a while....

This isn't only a GrainCo issue.... it is end user issues and Canadian Grain Commission issues. CGC sets the rules! Maybe CIGI will learn that levels can be higher than are being allowed today and can teach the end users to work with and accept higher tolerances.

Go ahead and bite my head off and shit down my throat about expecting people to ingest "poison" in fusarium infected grain. Well have another cigarette, drink some more booze, do some more drugs, eat more processed foods, drink some more pop, and there is likely a myriad of toxins you're exposed to on a daily basis that you have no clue about--ingested(or used) both willingly and against your will!

Put down the ****ing stick already!

Maybe opt for organic.... I'm sure its safe... no chance of vomitoxin there because its organic.

[stonepicker]

I agree, fusarium and vomi are a bargaining tool for the grain co's, it's politics, they have to play the game too with the end user. The buyer wants to buy it cheap, the one who buys it from them wants to buy it cheap. It will always be that way. The producer will always be at the bottom, that's the way it is. Farming is a business ( value added )

[farmaholic]

The newsletter I receive from Weber(AAFC Weekly Price Summary) has West Coast port "asking prices" as for the week of Dec 9 for #1 CWRS 13.5 px at $325.96/tonne or $8.87/bu.... like bucket pointed out. So wouldn't that put the basis closer to $2 compared to what I received for my wheat.

Why do grain cos calculate their basis in different ways, some positive and some negative. Yeah I understand its our net price that matters but what would be wrong with consistency in presenting transparent pricing? I guess I'm just not smart enough to see through the muddy waters.

[farming101]

Up till the end of October the only countries to buy #1 CWRS were Japan, USA and S Korea(very little)

#2 is the flavour of the day

My guess is the asking price is not the sale price this year. Who knows

[farmaholic]

101...there's also the chance some sales were made at higher levels than the "average asking price" reported by AAFC.

Re basis: the old CWB days had total deduction off the price of about $1.65 for my area. We can always hope some efficiencies were gained and passed on in times of need but assuming it would be consistently less would be wishful thinking. Knowing it could be higher when they "signal" they don't want it at a specific time can be expected.

[farming101]

Some container shipments would fetch higher or much higher prices. The ones who stuff the containers keep that.
I don't think large bulk shipments have been fetching premiums for quite some time, maybe 2 years