March Canola

[farming101]

Needs to hold/bounce here or next support is sub 500

[Oliver88]

March is down another $4.70/tonne today

At $508

[iceman]

Funds are too long in a falling market for there to be a rally short term.

Proceed on current heading
Iceman out

[fjlip]

Always spikes higher in New Year, WTF is that?

[farmaholic]

Hindsight marketing..... wish I would have priced at $11.50+.

This could still be holiday season doldrums. The Canadian supply hasn't increased.

What percentage are exports and crusher use of total usable supplies?

A terminal called saying I could haul canola later this week.... I have nothing contracted with them....they must have been looking at something incorrectly. I maybe would open the bin doors if prices offered matched recent highs.

[farming101]

Record disappearance as of week 20

From here on out if the use is identical to last year we're on track to use 19.563 million tonnes

Crop is stated as being 18.384 million tonnes

The only way for this to work is for use to slow down or for Stats Can to come in as they usually do and find hundreds of thousands more tonnes of canola in farmers bins to make the carryout work. Happens every year lately btw

[iceman]

We could still have a $11 cash with $460 futures with a basis change. All us farmers forget to remember that futures is just one part of the wheel


Iceman out

[jamesb]

Cerus global at Northgate is triggering Canola for del early jan for $11.00 today

[vvalk]

Why is it every time canola futures are closed the us markets make a run. Then the next day they are down when canola opens and then it's down. Happens 80% of he time. Canola market should never be closed if the us market is open

[errolanderson]

Global veg oil fundamentals are now gradually changing. Shrinking Malaysian Palm oil stocks have reversed with a 6 to 7 percent recovery expected in supplies now projected.

This has had an immediate impact on soy oil and canola. Weakening basis levels are also a reflection in the change in demand.

Aggressive China purchases of U.S. soybeans are apt to slow once Trump takes power.

[Oliver88]

Errol, why are you thinking China slows soybean purchasing after January 20th?

[errolanderson]

Oliver . . . believe China has been on an accelerated purchase pace with more that 3/4 of their entire year needs already purchased. Also, China is notorious to buy, buy, buy, then stop, stop, stop. The word 'cancel' is frequently heard at the end of their purchase cycle.

Also, believe the Trump / China trade tensions are just beginning. This may be a storyline for 2017.

[wmoebis]

By March there might be a lot less marketable Canola around. With the amount that is heating in the bins.

[FarmerSmuck]

Local terminal bought 75 loads of canola this week. 16 went home too much heated.

[Oliver88]

Oliver . . . believe China has been on an accelerated purchase pace with more that 3/4 of their entire year needs already purchased. Also, China is notorious to buy, buy, buy, then stop, stop, stop. The word 'cancel' is frequently heard at the end of their purchase cycle.

Also, believe the Trump / China trade tensions are just beginning. This may be a storyline for 2017.

I thought the trade element was what you were referring to, Trump has repeated the fact that USA has a huge trade deficit with China....also has mentioned currency manipulating.

I suppose the stronger USD also hurting China buying US soybeans as well. (Assuming Fed Reserve has 3 rate increases next ear).