Welcome 2017: The Year of Market Volatilty

[bucket]

Mallee

Interesting .... the industry players are similar... viterra Cargill etc....

[stonepicker]

Made good money forward selling wht.

[blackpowder]

I was speaking for myself only.
70% of my acres are hedgeable. Last 4 years able to be quite aggressive given the prices and ability.
This area not outstanding for yields but other than 02 a sure crop area. Also a reasonable movement area. Hope this explains my contradictory comment.

[blackpowder]

I should add I don't farm in Saskatchewan. Sounds like a rough place.

[tmyrfield]

I dont think I've ever sat back at the end and said "I forward sold too much".

Lucky you to never have had a hail storm or late frost or snowstorm reduce your yields to almost nothing. Then have the market rise against your contacts so that you have to pay someone to get out.

[sawfly1]

i too was thinking that the wheels , might just fall off the wagon.
no reason , maybe i am just a pessimist .

a black swan, of some kind we are due .
record snow in the mountains, shipments halt.
trump does something , oil jumps , cdn $ goes up instead of down like they are forecasting.

no science to it , just try to be 1/2 long and 1/2 short

[crusher]

Sawfly1,
Record snow in the mountains?? Don't think so. Marmot at Jasper has some of its worst conditions ever.

Errol,
Did you cut and paste last year's advise? You've been preaching "crash" for several years. Take a look at the S&P500. One has given up a substantial amount by not being invested there.
...ps...I'm the second biggest bear in the room.

[blackpowder]

Tmryfield. How often do you get hail? How often on every field? How often would you presell every bushel? How often do you pass on a great price? A great basis? You would pay option premium but not a buyout? You have no insurance?
Honestly, I bought a contract back once, in June after a frost. Result was futures went down after I bought it out and I harvested enough to fill it anyway.
I remember in 02. A neighbor presold 100% his expected wheat to the - - - . Then had 0 crop and 0 insurance. He works in town now. I have been careful forward selling. Hence my original statement by which I still stand.

[errolanderson]

Here's a year-over-year comparison (Dec 30th) of price gains and losses. Largest gainers to largest losers . . . .

Natural gas up 64%
Crude oil up 49%
Soybeans up 17%
Toronto TSX up 17%
Dow Jones up 12%
Soyoil up 12%
Lean Hogs up 09%
MWE Spring Wht up 09%
Gold up 09%
Oats up 04%
US Dollar up 03%
Canola up 02%
Cdn Dollar dn 01%
Corn dn 02%
KC Wheat dn 10%
Live Cattle dn 15%
Feeder Cattle dn 22%

[bucket]

Cows might be a play.