Welcome 2017: The Year of Market Volatilty

[blackpowder]

I was speaking for myself only.
70% of my acres are hedgeable. Last 4 years able to be quite aggressive given the prices and ability.
This area not outstanding for yields but other than 02 a sure crop area. Also a reasonable movement area. Hope this explains my contradictory comment.

[blackpowder]

I should add I don't farm in Saskatchewan. Sounds like a rough place.

[tmyrfield]

I dont think I've ever sat back at the end and said "I forward sold too much".

Lucky you to never have had a hail storm or late frost or snowstorm reduce your yields to almost nothing. Then have the market rise against your contacts so that you have to pay someone to get out.

[sawfly1]

i too was thinking that the wheels , might just fall off the wagon.
no reason , maybe i am just a pessimist .

a black swan, of some kind we are due .
record snow in the mountains, shipments halt.
trump does something , oil jumps , cdn $ goes up instead of down like they are forecasting.

no science to it , just try to be 1/2 long and 1/2 short

[crusher]

Sawfly1,
Record snow in the mountains?? Don't think so. Marmot at Jasper has some of its worst conditions ever.

Errol,
Did you cut and paste last year's advise? You've been preaching "crash" for several years. Take a look at the S&P500. One has given up a substantial amount by not being invested there.
...ps...I'm the second biggest bear in the room.

[blackpowder]

Tmryfield. How often do you get hail? How often on every field? How often would you presell every bushel? How often do you pass on a great price? A great basis? You would pay option premium but not a buyout? You have no insurance?
Honestly, I bought a contract back once, in June after a frost. Result was futures went down after I bought it out and I harvested enough to fill it anyway.
I remember in 02. A neighbor presold 100% his expected wheat to the - - - . Then had 0 crop and 0 insurance. He works in town now. I have been careful forward selling. Hence my original statement by which I still stand.

[errolanderson]

Here's a year-over-year comparison (Dec 30th) of price gains and losses. Largest gainers to largest losers . . . .

Natural gas up 64%
Crude oil up 49%
Soybeans up 17%
Toronto TSX up 17%
Dow Jones up 12%
Soyoil up 12%
Lean Hogs up 09%
MWE Spring Wht up 09%
Gold up 09%
Oats up 04%
US Dollar up 03%
Canola up 02%
Cdn Dollar dn 01%
Corn dn 02%
KC Wheat dn 10%
Live Cattle dn 15%
Feeder Cattle dn 22%

[bucket]

Cows might be a play.

[malleefarmer]

Lucky you to never have had a hail storm or late frost or snowstorm reduce your yields to almost nothing. Then have the market rise against your contacts so that you have to pay someone to get out.

if your not comfortable with the price or you think there is inherinant risk don't forward sell.
Strong basis sell cash weak basis sell futures or or OTC Swaps

Have to talk dollars per tonne sorry but basic rule of thumb in Australia is once prices get to around $285 per tonne for wheat starting looking for opportunity and reasons why its at 285 and what likehood of the trend.

Most sell around 30 to 40% and may scale up as production is assured to maybe 50.

Also look at pricing deciles

[malleefarmer]

so lets crystal ball 2017 zero opportunitys at moment could be a do nothing year but this year $250/60 could be considered a good price when that arrives will study things and either sell or stand aside when the acrerage battle hots up in april may there could be volatility or drying conditions somewere.

weather long term forecast for Australia take with grain of salt but all indices suggesting another good year.

there is a absolute mt Everest of grain in Australia and competing for same markets as Canada I would suggest.

don't quite understand subsidy system in france Germany and eu in general but have a friend in Germany who said "despite good prices for canola and yields in 17 I'm still better off growing wheat" he never said why but suggest its got to do with subsidies.

Even a drought in major producing country will produce a ripple but possibly nothing sustained and other issue appears that Russia as a whole meaning all states if they ever got there act together there are a huge amount of acres that could come into production sometime in years to come.

Australias biggest market for barley is china and middle east there not buying ahead just being bottom feeders but put there hat on you cant blame them.

remember in 70s and 80s we were all going to be grain growing kings the world will run out of wheat blah blah alas goverments want cheap food like it or lump it that's the way it is and will never change

am I positive or negative maybe neither just seeing it how it is

[tmyrfield]

Tmryfield. How often do you get hail? How often on every field? How often would you presell every bushel? How often do you pass on a great price? A great basis? You would pay option premium but not a buyout? You have no insurance?
Honestly, I bought a contract back once, in June after a frost. Result was futures went down after I bought it out and I harvested enough to fill it anyway.
I remember in 02. A neighbor presold 100% his expected wheat to the - - - . Then had 0 crop and 0 insurance. He works in town now. I have been careful forward selling. Hence my original statement by which I still stand.

My apologies. I wanted to respond to your initial post but didn't have time then when i did i didn't refresh my browser to see your mea culpa. Lesson learned on first day of the year. I have farmed since 1978. i have had 4 hailstorm wipe out my entire crop. Many Frost events that downgraded the crop to feed and sample. 2010 we only seeded half our land and after 47 inches of rain that summer never harvested a bushel. I have been accused of being pretty thick at times but i have learned not to forward price too much. Sometimes i wish i did more some times less. Most years we get by, some years we can catch up and maybe even upgrade some stuff. Farming thin rocky soils on the northern fringe of civilization isn't for everyone but the wins must make up for the losses otherwise no one would do it. I try to forget the beatings and remember the good times. A year like this year was a beating, but we won the war and survived. Now onto a new year with a whole new set of issues to deal with. Hopefully we have learned over the years not to fight last year's war and be innovative enough to recognize the new dangers lurking around the corner.
Happy new years to everyone on this forum and may you get just the Right amount of rain and sunshine!

[Oliver88]

Here's a year-over-year comparison (Dec 30th) of price gains and losses. Largest gainers to largest losers . . . .

Natural gas up 64%
Crude oil up 49%
Soybeans up 17%
Toronto TSX up 17%
Dow Jones up 12%
Soyoil up 12%
Lean Hogs up 09%
MWE Spring Wht up 09%
Gold up 09%
Oats up 04%
US Dollar up 03%
Canola up 02%
Cdn Dollar dn 01%
Corn dn 02%
KC Wheat dn 10%
Live Cattle dn 15%
Feeder Cattle dn 22%

Crude oil up 49% in 2016.
CDN $ loses 1% vs USD.

Is the CDN $ starting to not track crude oil as closely?.........