I just ran across this discussion on another site and the thought came to mind that it summarizes in many many ways how various types of people reason and think(or maybe "out of hand" immediately rationalize and ignore every last detail mentioned
And I have no idea of who JoeSchmoe is....But Agriville forced splitting the reply by another contributer into the next post after this rant
JoeSchmoe - May 29, 2016 ï¤Reply
your $8575 cost estimate is off by a factor of at least 6, and probably more like 10…. to get all the panels, controllers, converter and other peripherals you’d need and the labor for installation, you are going to spend $50,000 and probably more like 60k or more for off grid 2,100 kWh per month… than add on another 10 – 15k for the batteries you need for storage for the days the sun isn’t shining….(you can physically mount panels yourself, but unless you’re an actual electrician, you’re not going to connect it all without about an 80% chance of killing yourself or burning your house down, so installation cost has to be figured in…. even if you are an electrician and a solar expert that knows all there is to know about connections and ideal placement angles or even putting all the panels on active sun angle tracking set-ups… do everything yourself, and buy everything at wholesale and below prices… there’s still just NO WAY you can get a system that produces 2100kwh per month, or 25,000 kwh per year for 8 or 10k… depending on where you live, 25,000 kWh at residential retail is anywhere from $3,500 to $6,000 from the electric utility/company… if solar could be had with that short 2 to 3 year payback… or even a 10 year payback, everyone that gets even partial sun would already have it… banks would falling all over themselves to loan money out to anyone with a house or land with any southern exposure to place panels on because it would be a cash machine… 3 years in and your system would be paid off and EARNING hundreds of dollars a month selling power back into the grid…. the TRUTH about solar is, with good, unobstructed souther exposure (in the US), a system that can provide enough power to break even at the end of the year for your “average†house is around $50,000…… so after tax credits, and rebates, maybe it effectively costs $30,000, so at a national avg 1,200 kWh per month household at national avg .15 cents per kWh… you might come close to breaking even on initial cost after 14 years… but that doesn’t include interest on a loan to buy the system, it also doesn’t factor in system degradation which they all are subject to, as the years add up, the systems output and efficiency drops off…. those are rough (very rough) numbers, but input your local utility rate per kWh, including all the transmission, transition, taxes, and all the other bs charges on your bill… regardless of what anyone tells you or what you read is the “cost per kWh†for your area, the REAL, TRUE cost is your total bill, divided by that months total kWh used, that’s your real cost (in RI its around 16.9 cents, use 1000Kwh for the month and your electric bill for the month is $161.90, that’s why everyone in the northeast uses oil or gas for heat and hot water)…. anyhow, you need to input your conditions, your regions annual avg sun exposure (potential solar energy avaiable)… and your specific site, house or yards southern exposure and shading conditions throughout the seasons… and whether you heat with elec or gas or oil, and the cost to switch systems from elec to gas/oil or from gas/oil to electric factored into the cost of solar system sized to produce at least 25%, and ideally 50% more than you need when sun conditions are ideal… anything less and you wont be producing enough to sell significant amounts of overages back to the grid, so you’ll be stuck buying half or more of your power from the grid annually unless you want to invest another $50,000 in batteries for storage …don’t believe me, go price a battery system with all it’s necessary switches and peripherals that’s capable of storing (and delivering after efficiency losses) 3 or 4 days worth of total household power… it’s easy if you live in a house that’s set up to use a little electricity as possible, but what’s the point of investing so much money and space to solar if it can’t provide enough power to take the gas/oil out of the picture as well…
solar is great, and great strides have been made in efficiency and battery storage capabilities and a well designed house oriented properly, built with the right materials and properly sealed and insulated with correctly designed overhangs and entire layout well thought out and properly designed and sized heating and cooling systems can be amazingly efficient and get by well with a reasonably sized solar array….. but 95% of all the pre-existing homes and buildings are NOT properly oriented to maximize solar gains and minimize losses, and 95% are not properly sealed which is twice as important as insulation, which probably 80% of houses are lacking enough of, and of all of them, those with enough, and those without, almost all of them have the insulation installed incorrectly, reducing it’s effectiveness by anywhere from 30-70%…. and almost none of the pre-existing houses (and 99.5% of those that will be built in the foreseeable future) are not well designed in general and take no advantage of natural landscape potential or essentially free simple design modifications and building material choices that can easily make any given structure more efficient by a factor of 2, 3 or even 5… adding solar to any house like this is just trading money you pay to utility company to pay for solar system,….
there really isn’t much in the way of savings until a decade or more out, and even then the savings are modest at best unless your system is sized to produce significantly more than you use which is impractical unless you use very little to begin with (ie: your house is designed from the ground up for efficiency and uses very little energy even during it’s heavy use periods) … adding a $40k solar system to your typical spec house is a barely break even eventually proposition… if the current solar technology made financial sense… ie: efficiencies were high enough… then all the utility companies would be building massive solar projects and selling all that “free†power to all of us through the grid… the “economy of scale†makes the utility/power company doing such a much better deal than for us…. they would receive much more bang for the buck than a homeowner and they also already employ at wage rates all the electricians and trained lineman, engineers, construction personnel ect to design, erect, and tie in their system, (as homeowners we dont pay wage rates, we pay contractors rates for all installation labor which is 4 – 10x the going wage rate, and retail prices for equipment… the utility has labor at cost and materials and equipment at wholesale and below…and many utilities could easily manufacture most of their systems themselves and get free federal grant money to cover most of their costs…. so utility company is forced to purchase, or drill or mine themselves for NG, oil, or coal to power their generators to make electricity to sell, or they could go solar for a small fraction of what it costs a homeowner to produce their needed kWh…. if the numbers made any financial sense at all, all the utility companies would already be selling all of us solar made power, as it stands right now mid 2016…. just over half of 1% of utility power in the US is derived from solar PV and Collectors combined… only in the sunniest, and hottest little areas of the country does it currently make financial sense…
if I’m wrong, then the extremely greedy CEOs, CFOs and corporate VPs willing to spend a millions studying and analyzing anything that might eventually add a few tenths of a percent to the bottom line must be missing something too… any region where solar could produce enough to pay-back costs and maintenance within 10-15years, the utilities would be all over it because they’d be operating at 60 or 70% profit instead of the 8-15% they’re at now when they must buy oil, coal, or gas to produce power… they would within a few months after pay-back become the most successful businesses ever in the history of the world and within a year or two have over half the worlds currency collectively in their hands…. utility scale, nearly free energy… they would literally OWN the world, and likely they’d need to raise an army to keep it from being taken by force
And I have no idea of who JoeSchmoe is....But Agriville forced splitting the reply by another contributer into the next post after this rant
JoeSchmoe - May 29, 2016 ï¤Reply
your $8575 cost estimate is off by a factor of at least 6, and probably more like 10…. to get all the panels, controllers, converter and other peripherals you’d need and the labor for installation, you are going to spend $50,000 and probably more like 60k or more for off grid 2,100 kWh per month… than add on another 10 – 15k for the batteries you need for storage for the days the sun isn’t shining….(you can physically mount panels yourself, but unless you’re an actual electrician, you’re not going to connect it all without about an 80% chance of killing yourself or burning your house down, so installation cost has to be figured in…. even if you are an electrician and a solar expert that knows all there is to know about connections and ideal placement angles or even putting all the panels on active sun angle tracking set-ups… do everything yourself, and buy everything at wholesale and below prices… there’s still just NO WAY you can get a system that produces 2100kwh per month, or 25,000 kwh per year for 8 or 10k… depending on where you live, 25,000 kWh at residential retail is anywhere from $3,500 to $6,000 from the electric utility/company… if solar could be had with that short 2 to 3 year payback… or even a 10 year payback, everyone that gets even partial sun would already have it… banks would falling all over themselves to loan money out to anyone with a house or land with any southern exposure to place panels on because it would be a cash machine… 3 years in and your system would be paid off and EARNING hundreds of dollars a month selling power back into the grid…. the TRUTH about solar is, with good, unobstructed souther exposure (in the US), a system that can provide enough power to break even at the end of the year for your “average†house is around $50,000…… so after tax credits, and rebates, maybe it effectively costs $30,000, so at a national avg 1,200 kWh per month household at national avg .15 cents per kWh… you might come close to breaking even on initial cost after 14 years… but that doesn’t include interest on a loan to buy the system, it also doesn’t factor in system degradation which they all are subject to, as the years add up, the systems output and efficiency drops off…. those are rough (very rough) numbers, but input your local utility rate per kWh, including all the transmission, transition, taxes, and all the other bs charges on your bill… regardless of what anyone tells you or what you read is the “cost per kWh†for your area, the REAL, TRUE cost is your total bill, divided by that months total kWh used, that’s your real cost (in RI its around 16.9 cents, use 1000Kwh for the month and your electric bill for the month is $161.90, that’s why everyone in the northeast uses oil or gas for heat and hot water)…. anyhow, you need to input your conditions, your regions annual avg sun exposure (potential solar energy avaiable)… and your specific site, house or yards southern exposure and shading conditions throughout the seasons… and whether you heat with elec or gas or oil, and the cost to switch systems from elec to gas/oil or from gas/oil to electric factored into the cost of solar system sized to produce at least 25%, and ideally 50% more than you need when sun conditions are ideal… anything less and you wont be producing enough to sell significant amounts of overages back to the grid, so you’ll be stuck buying half or more of your power from the grid annually unless you want to invest another $50,000 in batteries for storage …don’t believe me, go price a battery system with all it’s necessary switches and peripherals that’s capable of storing (and delivering after efficiency losses) 3 or 4 days worth of total household power… it’s easy if you live in a house that’s set up to use a little electricity as possible, but what’s the point of investing so much money and space to solar if it can’t provide enough power to take the gas/oil out of the picture as well…
solar is great, and great strides have been made in efficiency and battery storage capabilities and a well designed house oriented properly, built with the right materials and properly sealed and insulated with correctly designed overhangs and entire layout well thought out and properly designed and sized heating and cooling systems can be amazingly efficient and get by well with a reasonably sized solar array….. but 95% of all the pre-existing homes and buildings are NOT properly oriented to maximize solar gains and minimize losses, and 95% are not properly sealed which is twice as important as insulation, which probably 80% of houses are lacking enough of, and of all of them, those with enough, and those without, almost all of them have the insulation installed incorrectly, reducing it’s effectiveness by anywhere from 30-70%…. and almost none of the pre-existing houses (and 99.5% of those that will be built in the foreseeable future) are not well designed in general and take no advantage of natural landscape potential or essentially free simple design modifications and building material choices that can easily make any given structure more efficient by a factor of 2, 3 or even 5… adding solar to any house like this is just trading money you pay to utility company to pay for solar system,….
there really isn’t much in the way of savings until a decade or more out, and even then the savings are modest at best unless your system is sized to produce significantly more than you use which is impractical unless you use very little to begin with (ie: your house is designed from the ground up for efficiency and uses very little energy even during it’s heavy use periods) … adding a $40k solar system to your typical spec house is a barely break even eventually proposition… if the current solar technology made financial sense… ie: efficiencies were high enough… then all the utility companies would be building massive solar projects and selling all that “free†power to all of us through the grid… the “economy of scale†makes the utility/power company doing such a much better deal than for us…. they would receive much more bang for the buck than a homeowner and they also already employ at wage rates all the electricians and trained lineman, engineers, construction personnel ect to design, erect, and tie in their system, (as homeowners we dont pay wage rates, we pay contractors rates for all installation labor which is 4 – 10x the going wage rate, and retail prices for equipment… the utility has labor at cost and materials and equipment at wholesale and below…and many utilities could easily manufacture most of their systems themselves and get free federal grant money to cover most of their costs…. so utility company is forced to purchase, or drill or mine themselves for NG, oil, or coal to power their generators to make electricity to sell, or they could go solar for a small fraction of what it costs a homeowner to produce their needed kWh…. if the numbers made any financial sense at all, all the utility companies would already be selling all of us solar made power, as it stands right now mid 2016…. just over half of 1% of utility power in the US is derived from solar PV and Collectors combined… only in the sunniest, and hottest little areas of the country does it currently make financial sense…
if I’m wrong, then the extremely greedy CEOs, CFOs and corporate VPs willing to spend a millions studying and analyzing anything that might eventually add a few tenths of a percent to the bottom line must be missing something too… any region where solar could produce enough to pay-back costs and maintenance within 10-15years, the utilities would be all over it because they’d be operating at 60 or 70% profit instead of the 8-15% they’re at now when they must buy oil, coal, or gas to produce power… they would within a few months after pay-back become the most successful businesses ever in the history of the world and within a year or two have over half the worlds currency collectively in their hands…. utility scale, nearly free energy… they would literally OWN the world, and likely they’d need to raise an army to keep it from being taken by force
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