Estevan considered for solar power

[oneoff]

And thats probably why the tune changed to Sask Power saying they are buying a quarter section at Estevan. They may need to further sweeten the pot with incentives and there is absolutely nothing saying that even 80 cents a Kwh wouldn't change the economics a whole lot. After all that exactly what happened in Ontario some years ago and its still pretty attactive (at least on the surface)

see the link aways back in this thread that burnt provided for current rates paid in Ontario

[oneoff]

The typo could have occurred within Sask Power.

Again, assuming any mistake was made, but yes, I'm sure the author of an email is totally responsible for typing 1400Mwh; and it was obviously not a mass mailing; but a response to a specific question that definitely says "1400Mwh per year". But what I hope we both really want to know is what output the Corporation is banking on.

I've got a confirmation request in to the engineer's direct telephone line. Tomorrow if I can get past the security desk in Regina I'll try first hand as well. And that one isn't easy because you can be asked for your appointment and kind of rudely reminded that no one is available on short notice; its "Friday" and everyone is gone etc. We'll see. Its a challenge and only way to try to get first hand information.

How is your detective work on this same question advancing?

[oneoff]

[Sorry a repeat

[tweety]

I'm trying to say that batteries aren't the way to go with energy storage. Even if energy were free of all
costs there are inherent restraints to batteries and your logic fails on the high costs associated with the batteries themselves. Never saw a really green battery yet...and you show me the one on the horizon.

I'd advise opening your mind up and looking at alternatives

And...... zoomed right by a second time!

[oneoff]

No..like the the general said about what looked like a retreat......just advancing in a different direction.

[oneoff]

Trip to Regina cancelled because it just isn't worth risking lives when Sask weather is as cruel and changeable as it has been lately.

Still working on getting the truth out; and am counting on messengers not being shot.

[oneoff]

My own estimate and the simplest math I can think of is

10 Mw solar panel capacity.....at 100% sunlight hours and ideal conditions gives 10Mw times 24 hours per day....equals 240 Mwh per day theoretical max generated electricity.

There are 365 or so days in a year equals 87600 Mwh per year But the sun doesn't shine every hour and clouds and snow will once in a while obstruct somewhat and on and on ...so a reasonable overall expectation of hours available (out of any of day, month or year time periods might be about 15% of time (as previously stated I've seen even Sask Power use 15% for those factor amounts)

So finally the math says ....87,600 Mwh/year times 15% EQUALS 13,140 Mwh/year usable electrical power into grid.

LEADING TO MY CONCLUSIONS

Sask Power should put the brakes on immediately and not waste 25-30 million if their estimate of 1400Mwh per year is actually what is anticipated by the Corporation (or who ever builds the project....)


And further even if 18,730 Mwh could be expected from a 10 Mw nameplate installation; as has been pointed out by others; 10 cents (or 11 cents or even more)....amounts to a a couple million of income on an 25 to 30 million investment. Certainly not the best current investment and one I would doubt any savvy investor would participate in.

Conclusions chuck's estimate (18730Mwh/year) could be close to reality. But that could only be the beginning of the complete story



There is a strong possibility that electrical costs won't be anywhere near what past and present costs have been. And only monopolies like Sask Power have any idea what the future may turn out to be. After all only a Review panel stands between what they say they need and what our bills will be.. Ontario's 80 cent/Kwh rate being paid to small power producers may seem outrageous....but who's to say that the electrical monopolies don't know exactly what they are doing; and soon those solar unit owners won't seem to be getting much more than retail payment.

I won't be arguing that alone with electrical utilities but as electrical users none of us should express shock after its too late.

[oneoff]

Oh...And about 80 acres will be utilized for any 10 Mw solar panel site. And 80 acres is 4 times as much as 20 acres and arguing that difference is insignificant on any personal grounds ...is equivalent to logic saying plus or minus 400% of anything in the world matters not one hoot.

[chuckChuck]

NREL's solar calculator says 13973 mwh annual output from 10mw for fixed panels at 20 degrees for Estevan.

The 18730 mwh output is NREL's calculation for tiltable panels which for example could be 70 degrees in the winter and 20 degrees in the summer.

If Saskpower says output is only 1400 mwh then that is not viable in any way.

Even at 14000 mwh it is probably not a big money maker.

However Hamloc did a calculation based on 25 million investment and 11 cents per kwh income and said payback is 16 years. The one thing to consider is the price of electricity will rise. On average the retail price has risen 3-4% per year in the last 10 years.

So to complete the business analysis we will need the finance cost, operating cost, and estimated increase of electricity prices in 25 years. And of course the estimated output over 25 -30 years. The lifespan of panels is more than 25 years. So maybe we should base our plan on 30 years. We also need to know what the efficiency loss is over the life span of the panels.

There is a good chance that the returns on this project will be low. But at 10mw compared to the proposal for 1600 mw from wind it is obvious that Saskpower is using this project to better understand whether solar is a fit in Saskatchewan.

In 25 years it is also possible that the cost of new panels will be relatively much lower and they will be much more efficient. Currently they are around 16%. A few years ago costs and efficiency would have made this proposal not work.

I am still waiting on Saskpower to confirm the estimated output. Oneoff why don't you ask the engineer by email to confirm?

[chuckChuck]

The other thing to consider in this discussion is what are the costs of alternatives if the province decides to use Carbon capture and Storage (CCS). The costs to do this on coal are currently very high. 1.3 billion invested at Boundary already. In the LCOE for the USA with new plants coming on stream in 2022 Coal with CCS is very expensive. Wind is cheap, gas is cheap solar looks reasonable compared to coal with CCS.

[oneoff]

I've got a request in as stated in a post above this one. Initial response from Sask Power was by email and quite likely the confirmation will go to same address. Not nice to be a pest? Have patience...and understanding.

You will be aware of the disclaimer that any disclosure or photocopying of the contents is explicitly not permitted. What should a person do? Am I now a criminal for repeating that the "panels won't have tracking and yearly output is expected to be 1400Mwh. But as is on the record

I've got a confirmation request in to the engineer's direct telephone line

And don't think I have not thought about that serious consideration. Ignored it... yes... in this case as there is zero proprietory information (at least in my reasoning) What would others do?

[oneoff]

Now perhaps the final points in my mind are

Why does it take 25 to 30 million (and most probably more) to set up 80 acres of fixed panels when its logical to determine the extra costs to get 30 to 40% greater output by having azumith tracking and for an further additional cost make further efficiency advances of about 18.6% with the second axis "inclination" adjuster as advertised by Ontario Hydro program and powerhousesolar.ca

Now for an professionally installed 10.08 or 11.96 Kw setup; it costs 100 grand (taxes not mentioned) and for dual tracking its $107,150. in Ontario. That company is looking to grow into more than Ontario market
For the 10 Mw Estevan project that is 1000 (one thousand) times bigger; so for 100 million (Single tracking) or 107.125 million (Double tracking) we could have a much technologically advanced system; but surely they'd give a discount for volume
But you do get a Cadillac system that reportedly goes into "parking mode" for panel protection at first signs of a storm. Its remote control; it could have each panel dump the snow; but I don't see why parking the panel side up and hoping snow would slide off when tilted extremely would be as good as somehow turning panels face down and not letting ice and snow collect in the first place.

If it were me... money no object...want to know what all capabilities were... I'd start a lot smaller to get an idea of likely results when scaled to a potential much bigger size

I'd already have commissioned three identical powerhousesolar.ca "deluxe" Dual Tracker $107,150 complete solar PV and Dual Tracking units and had them installed on that quarter section that Sask Power has "bought"

The first one would be fixed and made totally immobile at the OPTIMUM tilt angle of 40.2 degrees

And the second identical unit would have the inclination positioner totally disabled so that it would function as a Single Tracker and be set up nearby (just out of range of interference with other two units) on a uniformly level location to compare improvements made with a panel following the sun automatically throughout the day

And finally the "identical" third Dual Tracker unit mounted nearby other two in similar "identical" siting and allowed to automatically follow the sun throughout the day and throughout the season.

Then using the remote Live Data of the Powerhouse.ca web site; both SaskPower engineers and any interested party in Sask or the world could learn much more than any 30 million dollar experiment hog tied with obviously only decades old technology

And lastly I'll be the first person to contribute $3.21 (and lets make this PST exempt and everybody gets to collect back the GST) as my share of this necessary baby step to see if this is ready for some major solar investment. Maybe go one step further and as electricity is generated from those panels it will be credited to your account and after a period of payback; one should not be out of pocket one cent. If it doesn't return its costs it is patently clear that it was not economically sensible and everyone realizes it through their investment account.

Either way the residents are going to pay for that $3.21 cost for the 3 arrays and it will pay for itself (or won't) and that what we need to know. We'll also pay for any 25 to 30 million experiment/pilot project that is potentially missing out on 50% of possible output from only a positioner diffference

And for those who can't afford it; then I say Sask Power sucks it up and as an incentive to becoming involved; only those who put up $3.21 get to use the web site.

Its worth it to me. Somebody else pitch this to SaskPower if they are interested. We need some new ideas that have a chance of being creative and returning more than they cost.

Remember that conclusion in the Alameda Dam report.

"While the cost to benefit ratio is less than unity...when the benefits which can't be ascribed a value to are included...the project is well worth undertaking."

Not exactly the wording but it is exactly what was meant.

Will try to find the original quote.