NREL's solar calculator says 13973 mwh annual output from 10mw for fixed panels at 20 degrees for Estevan.
The 18730 mwh output is NREL's calculation for tiltable panels which for example could be 70 degrees in the winter and 20 degrees in the summer.
If Saskpower says output is only 1400 mwh then that is not viable in any way.
Even at 14000 mwh it is probably not a big money maker.
However Hamloc did a calculation based on 25 million investment and 11 cents per kwh income and said payback is 16 years. The one thing to consider is the price of electricity will rise. On average the retail price has risen 3-4% per year in the last 10 years.
So to complete the business analysis we will need the finance cost, operating cost, and estimated increase of electricity prices in 25 years. And of course the estimated output over 25 -30 years. The lifespan of panels is more than 25 years. So maybe we should base our plan on 30 years. We also need to know what the efficiency loss is over the life span of the panels.
There is a good chance that the returns on this project will be low. But at 10mw compared to the proposal for 1600 mw from wind it is obvious that Saskpower is using this project to better understand whether solar is a fit in Saskatchewan.
In 25 years it is also possible that the cost of new panels will be relatively much lower and they will be much more efficient. Currently they are around 16%. A few years ago costs and efficiency would have made this proposal not work.
I am still waiting on Saskpower to confirm the estimated output. Oneoff why don't you ask the engineer by email to confirm?
The 18730 mwh output is NREL's calculation for tiltable panels which for example could be 70 degrees in the winter and 20 degrees in the summer.
If Saskpower says output is only 1400 mwh then that is not viable in any way.
Even at 14000 mwh it is probably not a big money maker.
However Hamloc did a calculation based on 25 million investment and 11 cents per kwh income and said payback is 16 years. The one thing to consider is the price of electricity will rise. On average the retail price has risen 3-4% per year in the last 10 years.
So to complete the business analysis we will need the finance cost, operating cost, and estimated increase of electricity prices in 25 years. And of course the estimated output over 25 -30 years. The lifespan of panels is more than 25 years. So maybe we should base our plan on 30 years. We also need to know what the efficiency loss is over the life span of the panels.
There is a good chance that the returns on this project will be low. But at 10mw compared to the proposal for 1600 mw from wind it is obvious that Saskpower is using this project to better understand whether solar is a fit in Saskatchewan.
In 25 years it is also possible that the cost of new panels will be relatively much lower and they will be much more efficient. Currently they are around 16%. A few years ago costs and efficiency would have made this proposal not work.
I am still waiting on Saskpower to confirm the estimated output. Oneoff why don't you ask the engineer by email to confirm?
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