Almo math

[oneoff]

This is meant as a tribute to an old friend. Three (and only three) contributions of mine follow

[oneoff]

My own estimate and the simplest math I can think of is

10 Mw solar panel capacity.....at 100% sunlight hours and ideal conditions gives 10Mw times 24 hours per day....equals 240 Mwh per day theoretical max generated electricity.

There are 365 or so days in a year equals 87600 Mwh per year But the sun doesn't shine every hour and clouds and snow will once in a while obstruct somewhat and on and on ...so a reasonable overall expectation of hours available (out of any of day, month or year time periods might be about 15% of time (as previously stated I've seen even Sask Power use 15% for those factor amounts)

So finally the math says ....87,600 Mwh/year times 15% EQUALS 13,140 Mwh/year usable electrical power into grid.

LEADING TO MY CONCLUSIONS

Sask Power should put the brakes on immediately and not waste 25-30 million if their estimate of 1400Mwh per year is actually what is anticipated by the Corporation (or who ever builds the project....)


And further even if 18,730 Mwh could be expected from a 10 Mw nameplate installation; as has been pointed out by others; 10 cents (or 11 cents or even more)....amounts to a a couple million of income on an 25 to 30 million investment. Certainly not the best current investment and one I would doubt any savvy investor would participate in.

Conclusions chuck's estimate (18730Mwh/year) could be close to reality. But that could only be the beginning of the complete story



There is a strong possibility that electrical costs won't be anywhere near what past and present costs have been. And only monopolies like Sask Power have any idea what the future may turn out to be. After all only a Review panel stands between what they say they need and what our bills will be.. Ontario's 80 cent/Kwh rate being paid to small power producers may seem outrageous....but who's to say that the electrical monopolies don't know exactly what they are doing; and soon those solar unit owners won't seem to be getting much more than retail payment.

I won't be arguing that alone with electrical utilities but as electrical users none of us should express shock after its too late. Reply With Quote

[oneoff]

Second installment

Oh...And about 80 acres will be utilized for any 10 Mw solar panel site. And 80 acres is 4 times as much as 20 acres and arguing that difference is insignificant on any personal grounds ...is equivalent to logic saying plus or minus 400% of anything in the world matters not one hoot. Reply With Quote

[oneoff]

Last entry

Now perhaps the final points in my mind are

Why does it take 25 to 30 million (and most probably more) to set up 80 acres of fixed panels when its logical to determine the extra costs to get 30 to 40% greater output by having azumith tracking and for an further additional cost make further efficiency advances of about 18.6% with the second axis "inclination" adjuster as advertised by Ontario Hydro program and powerhousesolar.ca

Now for an professionally installed 10.08 or 11.96 Kw setup; it costs 100 grand (taxes not mentioned) and for dual tracking its $107,150. in Ontario. That company is looking to grow into more than Ontario market
For the 10 Mw Estevan project that is 1000 (one thousand) times bigger; so for 100 million (Single tracking) or 107.125 million (Double tracking) we could have a much technologically advanced system; but surely they'd give a discount for volume
But you do get a Cadillac system that reportedly goes into "parking mode" for panel protection at first signs of a storm. Its remote control; it could have each panel dump the snow; but I don't see why parking the panel side up and hoping snow would slide off when tilted extremely would be as good as somehow turning panels face down and not letting ice and snow collect in the first place.

If it were me... money no object...want to know what all capabilities were... I'd start a lot smaller to get an idea of likely results when scaled to a potential much bigger size

I'd already have commissioned three identical powerhousesolar.ca "deluxe" Dual Tracker $107,150 complete solar PV and Dual Tracking units and had them installed on that quarter section that Sask Power has "bought"

The first one would be fixed and made totally immobile at the OPTIMUM tilt angle of 40.2 degrees

And the second identical unit would have the inclination positioner totally disabled so that it would function as a Single Tracker and be set up nearby (just out of range of interference with other two units) on a uniformly level location to compare improvements made with a panel following the sun automatically throughout the day

And finally the "identical" third Dual Tracker unit mounted nearby other two in similar "identical" siting and allowed to automatically follow the sun throughout the day and throughout the season.

Then using the remote Live Data of the Powerhouse.ca web site; both SaskPower engineers and any interested party in Sask or the world could learn much more than any 30 million dollar experiment hog tied with obviously only decades old technology

And lastly I'll be the first person to contribute $0.32 (and lets make this PST exempt and everybody gets to collect back the GST) as my share of this necessary baby step to see if this is ready for some major solar investment. Maybe go one step further and as electricity is generated from those panels it will be credited to your account and after a period of payback; one should not be out of pocket one cent. If it doesn't return its costs it is patently clear that it was not economically sensible and everyone realizes it through their investment account.

Either way the residents are going to pay for that 32 cent cost for the 3 arrays and it will pay for itself (or won't) and that what we need to know. We'll also pay for any 25 to 30 million experiment/pilot project that is potentially missing out on 50% of possible output from only a positioner diffference

And for those who can't afford it; then I say Sask Power sucks it up and as an incentive to becoming involved; only those who put up $0.32 get to use the web site.

Its worth it to me. Somebody else pitch this to SaskPower if they are interested. We need some new ideas that have a chance of being creative and returning more than they cost.

Remember that conclusion in the Alameda Dam report.

"While the cost to benefit ratio is less than unity...when the benefits which can't be ascribed a value to are included...the project is well worth undertaking."

Not exactly the wording but it is exactly what was meant.

Will try to find the original quote.

[chuckChuck]

Here is some more math to consider.

Saskpower rates for this farm have increased on average by just over 3% per year in the last 10 years. At that rate electricity will be worth approximately 19-20 cents per kwh in 30 years. (based on NREL internet model not my own math)

As Hamloc pointed out Boyd Solar out of Alberta is estimating the installed cost of grid tied solar PV over 25 years I believe is 10 cents per kwh.

[seldomseen]

That's quite the conversation you two are having and I am not sure why you just don't get together and thrash it all out with a couple of pots of coffee? I can see you are both better than me with typing and math. All I know is that when I was in school way back about 40 years ago the teacher told us all about this new fabulous free energy that was right around the corner. I remember thinking to myself how great this solar idea was and in a few years everyone would have solar panels on their roofs but 40 years latter we are still at the same point.
Another thing I know is that western Canada is full of smart and enterprising people and if there was any economic merit to solar power someone would be building and selling solar power.
The only way solar will work is if a company has access to taxpayer money which is what will happen with Sask power!

[tweety]

Oneoff, if a coal generated kwh cost 1$, what is an acceptable cost for a kwh for solar in order for you to give the approval?

Not that it matters since you don't approve anything anyways, but am curious to know what that cost would be.

[tweety]

That's quite the conversation you two are having and I am not sure why you just don't get together and thrash it all out with a couple of pots of coffee? I can see you are both better than me with typing and math. All I know is that when I was in school way back about 40 years ago the teacher told us all about this new fabulous free energy that was right around the corner. I remember thinking to myself how great this solar idea was and in a few years everyone would have solar panels on their roofs but 40 years latter we are still at the same point.
Another thing I know is that western Canada is full of smart and enterprising people and if there was any economic merit to solar power someone would be building and selling solar power.
The only way solar will work is if a company has access to taxpayer money which is what will happen with Sask power!

Actually Seldom, its far simpler than that. Why would anyone want to pay more for power if we have stored energy we can just burn with next to no cost? That would be crazy to do that. So, stuff isn't built.