Canola up today

[farming101]

With US markets closed! Put a mark on the wall

Rollin'

[farmaholic]

Lol...I was thinking the same thing and was going to post it....it did it without direction of the US soybean market.

Now wouldn't it be impressive if beans fell tomorrow and canola divorced itself from the bean market and went up!

[farming101]

Yes, even better if they both went up, looking good so far

[farmaholic]

101....according to Weber's canola basis chart it looks to me like the crusher nearby needs are met. I think I saw in one of his newsletters that the crushers are chugging along at a fairly high capacity as well.

With the estimated usage(crush, export, left in field, spoiled) and how much stocks we have what's your best guess for carry out, if there will be any.

[bucket]

How much is still out in fields and how much is getting sold at any price because its tough and it's gotta move....

[farming101]

Guessing canola carryout is tough. Every year the numbers get adjusted.

I keep remembering FarmerSmuck's comment a while back about 16 loads of canola being turned away one week because of heated damage

I keep talking the ending stocks down, maybe one year I'll be right. So I'm saying around 1.4MMt carryout. Last statscan report (2MMT) did not take into account what the late harvest outcome will be.
3 weeks worth of use last year worked out to about 1.1MMT averaged over the year. I would say that is getting near to pipeline values

[farmaholic]

Gotta wonder how much got priced at the last peak. Heard a local guy priced generic for June/July del for about $11.70.

Remember I was "babbling" about $12.

[farming101]

Wow he did good

11.44 June del on Nov 25 was about the best here

[farmaholic]

I'm famous for holding out for a nickel and losing a dollar!
I'm smiling and snickering as I wrote that.

[farmaholic]

101...you're alot better at this than I am. But July canola was hanging around $540 for a while at the beginning of Dec. $12.25ish w/o basis. $24 basis off 540 netted him $11.70.

Current terminal June/July bids here are having issues breaking $11 now....see the odd one over eleven now and then.

[Quadtrack]

Just read something about more flooding in Brazil, and more rain in forecast for Friday.
NWT Unity was $11.17 today June del.

[farming101]

$35 basis at that time here. Actually a few of the elevators might have been higher but we usually are pleased with dockage at the plant so it mostly goes there.
Basis has improved for next July at the present $11.30 with a $16 basis

[MBgrower]

Canola export basis apparently $75/tonne over at vancouver. Lots of room for country basis to improve if farmers slowed down deliveries.

[farmaholic]

As is with wheat, remember the freight to port also needs to come off that port price for canola. Its a cold hard reality that farmgate prices are reflective of that fact. I , the buyer, pay the freight for a combine to the farmgate but the buyer of my product doesn't pay the freight from my factory. Could you imagine the marketing disadvantage if Canadian grain prices weren't quoted port position.

[bucket]

Vancouver prices are 40 bucks per tonne higher but the basis comes off the Saskatoon prices.


So the selling price at Vancouver accounts for freight but that is direct profit for the graincos because they use Saskatoon to price out here ...not Vancouver.