$12 July canola...

[farmaholic]

Can someone explain this....

Whats the sentiment if "funds" are long or short canola.

Long=optomistic and bullish?
Short=pessimistic and bearish?

What position are they at today, long or short and does it mean anything?

[farming101]

COT, Commitment of Traders reports for Canola are not published. Would be nice

Here is weekly Bean oil chart of COT showing net positions.


The columns below the "0" line are showing net commercial short contracts.You can see the numbers at the bottom. Commercials are classed as such because they are in some way involved with using or handling the commodity.
The columns above the "0" line are the large specs and the other or small spec(the short column) both of which are net long.

The green line read off the right hand scale is the open interest in all contract months and includes options

[farmaholic]

101 ....because I dont know I need to ask.
Is anything above the line long and anything below the line short?
And the short lines above the line indicating(in most of this chart) there are more long positions than short? What is the green line?

If it is what I think it is, it appears quite balanced with slightly more long positions than shorts.

Is ICE Canola functional/fluid enough to chart even if the COT was known?

[iceman]

Can someone explain this....

Whats the sentiment if "funds" are long or short canola.

Long=optomistic and bullish?
Short=pessimistic and bearish?

What position are they at today, long or short and does it mean anything?

According to the bookies the spec funds are even in canola right now. Beans is completely different story the funds are very long not a record tho.
176 000 contracts short in beans last CoT

Clear to engage the target farmaholic

Iceman Out

[farming101]

comments added to post above

[farmaholic]

I wish I would have developed more marketing knowledge at a much earlier stage of my career than being so production oriented. Or better yet, honed both skills equally! Got to wonder if I'd be way "further along"? (better off)

[iceman]

I wish I would have developed more marketing knowledge at a much earlier stage of my career than being so production oriented. Or better yet, honed both skills equally! Got to wonder if I'd be way "further along"? (better off)

The good old CWB didn't exactly foster a culture of marketing experience. Never to old to learn and lessons cost money and the good ones cost lots



Iceman Out

[farmaholic]

Excellent point Iceman! And we(here in the slum of the Ghetto) were late to the game when it came to non-board open market commodities. Maybe I'm just making excuses now!

As I've said before, some people's marketing knowledge on here is impressive.

[farming101]

Jan 30: ouch! Canola down today. On the other hand July17 34 cent Bean oil puts are up 76% since last Tuesday. To infinity and beyond! Sorry Buzz...

[farmaholic]

Who kicked the bull in the gonads?

[wmoebis]

Excellent point Iceman! And we(here in the slum of the Ghetto) were late to the game when it came to non-board open market commodities. Maybe I'm just making excuses now!

As I've said before, some people's marketing knowledge on here is impressive.

Do you feel the guys that refused to grow or sell through the CWB are better marketers than the rest of us and have the upper hand?

[farmaholic]

I don't know but i do believe it made me marketing lazy and uneducated(was going to say stupid). I only really started marketing some of my own grain when we started with pulses and oil seeds of which only canola had a futures market. All I would ever do is maybe sign a DDC or AOG production contract. Did a lot of spot pricing or short term contracts. Unless you consider marketing shopping my wheat around for the best grade...price was what it was. Now it's both grade and price!(which is ok)

I don't know if being versed in chart analysis would make me a better marketer. There's a pile of indicators that I have no idea what they mean. Pretty easy to understand resistance and support and hoping it breaks through one and not the other. I kinda hate when markets move on speculation rather than fundamentals but I guess I am told that money is made in volatility... maybe if you're a paper trader(?????). But that wouldn't be true either because if speculation is driving the market higher than fundamentals would otherwise dictate(does that really ever happen?) I guess it's up to me to pull the trigger if I am a physical seller and prices are higher than market fundamentals would have them.

I never signed things like futures/basis first contracts, I didn't want to limit myself to one marketing company. Didn't roll unpriced contracts. I hate TPAs, GPOs and Marketing Managers. I never bought options that can expire worthless.... cost and no gain...when the market goes up against a put option.
Signing contracts against yet to be grown grains that have big quality risk is foolish(wheat and malt barley). Signing contracts without premiums and discounts written into them is severely one-sided.

I can see how pre-selling can help people manage cash flow for payments and operating.... but then you better hope like hell the contracting company lives up to the delivery terms of the contract. I've been told to price grain well in advance of when you think you will need the money to ensure you can get it delivered and cashed out "before" you need it, basically... not WHEN you need it. Talk about shifting the blame and onus, why sign contracts if they aren't honored? At times I do believe there is some over contracting to make sure they are never short and don't have to rely on the spot market to fill orders. Or having GPOs and such "trigger" because they know they might have to pay more for the grain if that one sided contract(offer the grain to us and we'll take it if we need it) didn't exist. It also will help keep the price down.... the more grain in Commercial's hands(even if it's stored in Producer's bins) the less likely there will be a need to rely on spot pricing and higher prices to fill orders.

Please correct me, or give us your opinion, if you think I am out to lunch....as usual.