$12 July canola...

[iceman]

I wish I would have developed more marketing knowledge at a much earlier stage of my career than being so production oriented. Or better yet, honed both skills equally! Got to wonder if I'd be way "further along"? (better off)

The good old CWB didn't exactly foster a culture of marketing experience. Never to old to learn and lessons cost money and the good ones cost lots



Iceman Out

[farmaholic]

Excellent point Iceman! And we(here in the slum of the Ghetto) were late to the game when it came to non-board open market commodities. Maybe I'm just making excuses now!

As I've said before, some people's marketing knowledge on here is impressive.

[farming101]

Jan 30: ouch! Canola down today. On the other hand July17 34 cent Bean oil puts are up 76% since last Tuesday. To infinity and beyond! Sorry Buzz...

[farmaholic]

Who kicked the bull in the gonads?

[wmoebis]

Excellent point Iceman! And we(here in the slum of the Ghetto) were late to the game when it came to non-board open market commodities. Maybe I'm just making excuses now!

As I've said before, some people's marketing knowledge on here is impressive.

Do you feel the guys that refused to grow or sell through the CWB are better marketers than the rest of us and have the upper hand?

[farmaholic]

I don't know but i do believe it made me marketing lazy and uneducated(was going to say stupid). I only really started marketing some of my own grain when we started with pulses and oil seeds of which only canola had a futures market. All I would ever do is maybe sign a DDC or AOG production contract. Did a lot of spot pricing or short term contracts. Unless you consider marketing shopping my wheat around for the best grade...price was what it was. Now it's both grade and price!(which is ok)

I don't know if being versed in chart analysis would make me a better marketer. There's a pile of indicators that I have no idea what they mean. Pretty easy to understand resistance and support and hoping it breaks through one and not the other. I kinda hate when markets move on speculation rather than fundamentals but I guess I am told that money is made in volatility... maybe if you're a paper trader(?????). But that wouldn't be true either because if speculation is driving the market higher than fundamentals would otherwise dictate(does that really ever happen?) I guess it's up to me to pull the trigger if I am a physical seller and prices are higher than market fundamentals would have them.

I never signed things like futures/basis first contracts, I didn't want to limit myself to one marketing company. Didn't roll unpriced contracts. I hate TPAs, GPOs and Marketing Managers. I never bought options that can expire worthless.... cost and no gain...when the market goes up against a put option.
Signing contracts against yet to be grown grains that have big quality risk is foolish(wheat and malt barley). Signing contracts without premiums and discounts written into them is severely one-sided.

I can see how pre-selling can help people manage cash flow for payments and operating.... but then you better hope like hell the contracting company lives up to the delivery terms of the contract. I've been told to price grain well in advance of when you think you will need the money to ensure you can get it delivered and cashed out "before" you need it, basically... not WHEN you need it. Talk about shifting the blame and onus, why sign contracts if they aren't honored? At times I do believe there is some over contracting to make sure they are never short and don't have to rely on the spot market to fill orders. Or having GPOs and such "trigger" because they know they might have to pay more for the grain if that one sided contract(offer the grain to us and we'll take it if we need it) didn't exist. It also will help keep the price down.... the more grain in Commercial's hands(even if it's stored in Producer's bins) the less likely there will be a need to rely on spot pricing and higher prices to fill orders.

Please correct me, or give us your opinion, if you think I am out to lunch....as usual.

[farming101]

Farma, sounds about right. My angle with being a daily market and chart watcher is that even if you never trade futures or options, it keeps a guy informed. And that in turn will most likely result in better returns.

[iceman]

[QUOTE=wmoebis;336866]Do you feel the guys that refused to grow or sell through the CWB are better marketers than the rest of us and have the upper hand?[/QUOTE

I don't know if I would say they have a upper hand but a better understanding for sure. It just seemed the CWB's marketing machine was successful in convincing farmers that they weren't smart enough to market/ trade their own grain. If guys hear that enough over a long period of time they eventually believed it to be the case. Than when the CWB left there was a huge learning curve for average farmer to pickup and of course the sharks began to circle.

101 nice bean oil put trade. Are they your preferred method for option hedging canola? I never used them and always used canola puts. These canola options always seem to be so thin that the bid asks are wide and sometimes hard to get in and out of.

iceman out

[farming101]

Always seem to look over to compare BO options with Canola options.
BO usually compares favorably.
10 BO puts bought carefully can protect about 500 tonnes of canola. That does not include commission.

[farming101]

Jan 31 2017

[iceman]

Jan 31 2017
[ATTACH]1165[/ATTACH]

That ends that discussion. Thanks for the charts.

Any thoughts on beans in the short term? Will be see a small bounce before we head lower?


Iceman out

[furrowtickler]

Agreed , thx for the charts 101 👍

[farming101]

Bean uptrend still alive. A bounce off 10.13H would be positive. It's looking like the Jan 18 high will not be taken out. Possibly 10.36-10.60 as a high.
Continued weakness for the rest of this week will put that all in doubt. anything under $10 will find new selling

[farmaholic]

Am I the only one who needs an explanation allot of the time? Or the only one ______ enough to admit it?

[farming101]

Fire away