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Economist says now is the best time to be in Ag

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    Economist says now is the best time to be in Ag

    A usa Article, funny must have not talked to farmers in USA or Canada.
    One economist says it’s the best time ever to be involved in agriculture, and not just the United States but the world.

    Dr. Lowell Catlett is an economist and former professor at New Mexico State University. He was the keynote speaker Wednesday afternoon at the 2017 Iowa Pork Congress.

    “Guess I really want to give people a sense of optimism that we are really in a unique position historically to be in production agriculture or indeed in any kind of agriculture. We’ve never had a period in history where we have had the world rise out of poverty into the middle class so the world has money, a significant amount of money. The number one thing they want to do is change their diets to animal-sourced proteins,” Catlett says.

    He says we’re seeing historic exports of pork, beef, and poultry worldwide because more countries have money.

    “I’m old enough to say remember when they didn’t have money, well now they do and they want to buy those things. They are going to be intensive animal operations by the most part so they are going to be based in the Midwest. That means it’s a good time to be in the corn and soybean business too because you got to feed those animals.”

    Most farmers are worried about low commodity prices these days. Catlett says no one knows better how to manage thin margins than farmers.

    Iowa Pork Congress continues Thursday at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines.

    #2
    Maybe some of the cowboys could chime in here and explain their thoughts about the decrease in prices they are seeing for their calves. Feed grains are still relatively cheap! If there is such demand why the decrease in cattle prices? Or did the prices rise to the point where average income earners can't afford to eat beef? And the never ending question..... has the meat counter prices at the grocery store dropped the same percentage as the cow/calf guy's prices?

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      #3
      I would argue the middle class is getting swamped in debt . Easy credit has developed a false economy. Also inflation is as real as it gets right now imo. It has been steady and relentless. Now add the carbon tax and I have a hard time believing that expert.
      There are much worse places to be that's for sure but it's not the best place to be , especially as a primary producer. Maybe as a land lord getting $120-130 /ac . Or simplot.

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        #4
        I was thinking the same thing Furrow, the Primary Producer is the easiest to extract value from...just don't pay him more for his product, or worse yet...pay less!

        Not everyone feels the boom in Ag, dependent on what situation they're in, and it varies greatly all the way from production to financial. No blanket comments can possibly cover all the possibilities.

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          #5
          My dad said ....there is always work on the farm.......

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            #6
            Any economist will tell you that Increased Inputs + lower grain and livestock prices + fewer markets due to takeovers + more regulations = way better returns to farmers. Don't you know that, Farmaholic? (I'm being facetious.)

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              #7
              Our local community needed more than double the Christmas hampers than last year. I know the food bank here is under higher pressure than ever before. Many people here just don't have the money. Small businesses here really struggle. The middle class is shrinking.

              Economists don't know dick. Never have. Ag econs the worst of the lot. Hartley Furtan, Tyrkniwieches, Schmitzs, the late Kraft, all useless.

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                #8
                sumdumguy.......

                The answer to that scenario is to increase the farm size.....economies of scale.... thinner margins on more acres. Right?

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                  #9
                  Originally posted by farmaholic View Post
                  Maybe some of the cowboys could chime in here and explain their thoughts about the decrease in prices they are seeing for their calves. Feed grains are still relatively cheap! If there is such demand why the decrease in cattle prices? Or did the prices rise to the point where average income earners can't afford to eat beef? And the never ending question..... has the meat counter prices at the grocery store dropped the same percentage as the cow/calf guy's prices?
                  Market manipulation farmaholic that's the cause of the current decrease in cattle prices. No the beef price didn't get too high and no the retail price of beef didn't drop in synch with live cattle prices.

                  I'd posted a few articles and threads on this on the "beef" forum but seems everyone just shrugs and accepts it. I hope you may find them of interest.

                  Originally posted by grassfarmer View Post
                  Is anyone else interested in what is going on in the beef cattle sector just now? Are we all content to sit back and accept low returns again because we got our 2 years in 10 of high prices? I'm not - I'm mad at the current situation as the price collapse in cattle prices flies in the face of market fundamentals.
                  I posted a few weeks ago in the "Bluegrass Stockyards" thread about the packer manipulation of the cattle futures markets that seems to be allowing them to control the live cattle price through controlling the financing extended to feedlots.
                  As further proof that our cattle prices shouldn't be where they are take a look at these charts from StatsCan October 2016.

                  [ATTACH]993[/ATTACH]

                  [ATTACH]994[/ATTACH]

                  Look at the price spread between farmgate and retail price in graph 2 - went from $4/lb in 1995 to nearly $10/lb now - even at the widest point during BSE it was under $7/lb. How come everyone is asleep on this? why isn't it being raised by beef industry checkoff groups?

                  As cattle producers we are systematically being robbed of the value of the cattle. Anyone prepared to do anything about it?
                  Originally posted by grassfarmer View Post
                  Interesting article out of Bluegrass Stockyards in Kentucky. How much different is this to Canada?

                  "Today’s Cattle Market

                  A group of 40 concerned and heavily impacted cattle producers representing small cow/calf to large backgrounders met on October 11, 2016 at the farm of John Sparks to discuss the current situation with the cattle markets. Having seen prices for cattle decline from 40-60% in the last 14 months has created concern since the fundamentals of the marketplace would not indicate a drop of this magnitude is warranted. During this same period of time the retail value of the beef product has not fallen proportionally with the devaluation of live cattle. The consumer continues to pay an astronomical premium for the product while the farmer producing the product is operating below breakeven and has done so for two production seasons. The Packing and retail sectors are operating with historic profit margins that are well documented. Compounding this problem of too much control in the hands of a small sector of the industry is the fact that volatility in the futures market has created an environment that has crippled the cash marketplace.

                  Lenders require most if not all cattle customers to “hedge” their cattle purchases against the futures market. The extreme volatility in that market and the fact that it seems to move without any drive from fundamental market factors has taken all of the “risk takers” out of both the cash and futures market. We have seen several instances where the market has crashed, at the end of the week, when it is widely known that the packers need to go to the cash market to buy fed cattle to fill the next week’s harvest to supplement the 80% of the fed cattle supply that they already control. At other moments in the market there have been dramatic, often limit, moves that seem to be totally disconnected from the fundamentals at work in the cash marketplace and in the absence of any significant “news” in the industry that would justify those moves. In retrospect we now realize that the period in 2014-15 when the cash market ran up so dramatically was a predictor of what was coming, the market simply is not a vibrant and healthy fundamental marketplace in which legitimate business can be conducted.

                  This group is not proposing legislative solutions to these problems but rather asking that our elected officials initiate a round of questions to those responsible for operating and overseeing these markets. It seems that everyone, at all levels, acknowledges that we are at a pivotal time in the cattle industry and if the situation doesn’t change quickly we are at risk of allowing a forced integration of the cattle industry, similar to what transpired in the swine and poultry sectors. Cattlemen are fiercely independent and wish to remain that way. For three decades we have been told that the cattle industry cannot be integrated because the packer can’t afford to own the grass and cows. We now understand that they don’t have to own the resource base, they need only control the financing of cattle moving into feedyards and they accomplish the same level of control with much lower risk and cost.

                  The following is a list of agencies and entities and the appropriate questions that we feel necessary.

                  USDA – Justice Department – Federal Trade Commission
                  - In this environment of historic profit margins and an ample supply of cattle and excess processing capacity, why don’t the packers expand harvest as they would historically do?
                  - With the 4 major packers having achieved control of 80% of the fed cattle supply, either through direct ownership or contract production, is it time to revisit the rules under which the industry operates and limit the time that a packer can own/control that supply?
                  - Why won’t the packing industry consistently participate in the cash fed cattle market? The industry has tacitly granted them a monopoly, is it not their responsibility to honor that by maintaining a vibrant cash marketplace?
                  - There is virtually no price discovery in the fed cattle market. With only 20% of the supply traded in some form of open market or negotiated trade there is no way of knowing what the product is truly worth. How can we incentivize a higher percentage of the cattle to be traded in open markets?
                  - How can these agencies justify standing idle while packers make historic profits at the cost of family farms? Much of the equity that has been built over the last decade in the independent cattle industry has been eroded in the last year. Soon the farmer and farmer feeder will be forced to go to the packing industry for financing which is the same as integrated or contract production.
                  - The role of USDA is to insure open and competitive markets for farm commodities, what are they doing or planning to do in this situation?
                  - With a farm bill approaching, is it time to be proposing changes in the regulatory structure and rules that govern the packing and feeding industries?
                  Commodity Futures Trading Commission – Chicago Mercantile Exchange
                  - What is the origin of the volatility in the cattle futures contracts?
                  - Has the market been overtaken by electronic, high frequency traders or is it being manipulated by entities within our own industry?
                  - What has changed in the dynamics of this market since pit trading stopped and contract limits were expanded?
                  - Why can’t the traditional “long” trader participate in the current environment? They were the “risk taker” that kept the market vibrant for decades.
                  - What forces are at work that cause the markets to move independently of and often inversely to “fundamental news” in the industry?
                  - What drives the market to move sharply lower leading into times when packers need to buy fed cattle in the cash market?
                  - CME has openly stated that a vibrant cash market is required for a healthy futures market. How can the cattle futures continue to be relevant if the cash market is dysfunctional?
                  - What is the role of CME and CFTC in incentivizing participation in the cash fed cattle market?
                  - What steps are being taken to correct the dysfunctionality of the cattle futures trade?"

                  Originally posted by grassfarmer View Post
                  There are ways around it for individual producers - direct marketing which we have done is one solution. I believe ultimately there has to be a solution for the commodity beef sector or it's decline will continue. I don't believe the solution any longer lies in accessing foreign markets, we shouldn't have to pursue that avenue. The solution lies right under our noses and always has.
                  The short lived "high" cattle price period we just came through was based on peak fat cattle price of $200 cwt which led to prices ranchers could hardly believe for calves, yearlings and cull cows. Based on the figures in those graphs I posted an ongoing fat cattle price of $250 would require the packers/retailers to give up less than 50% of the increase in spread between farm gate cattle price and retail beef price they have captured since 1995. Ranching could be very profitable based on prices higher than we saw over the last price spike and we could have it year after year. The packers and retailers would still be profitable and consumers would not need to pay more for their beef. Basically we need to get our fair share - simple as that.

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                    #10
                    The price of beef is way to high for the average Joe. It is a rich mans protein. Ask any food bank what meat based protein is always in shortest supply. How many people do you really know than can afford to buy a half or full processed animal at a time?? Get your head out of your ass grass.. Now that doesn't mean I'm not eating beef tho. . Shits delicious !!!

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                      #11
                      I just put a half of beef in the deep freeze cut and wrapped for about $1100.00. I know where it came from and like the job the processors do. It's either this or bit by bit over the counter and who knows... I used to have my own but unfortunately don't anymore.

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                        #12
                        I'm. Not arguing the merits of being able to afford beef or for that matter whatever I jolly well feel like. Just filled up myself at $2500 cut and wrapped for full animal. Chew on that until another one comes available. Clean out freezer and donate to food bank and start over. This luxury we producers think nothing of is something actually few can afford in the real world. That's my point..

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                          #13
                          Still remember back in 70s, the forecast of 10$ wheat, industry was rolling on a high, everyone was coming back to farm, only a fool would have forecast anything less. Through the 80's and 90's we learned what stays real, is the need to see the way through, and at all prices it takes skill.

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                            #14
                            PS I ran into someone at Starbucks complaining about the cost of a steak: go figure.

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                              #15
                              If you can get $125 ac cash rent, and a lot of the BTO operations are paying that, I would agree it's the best time to be in ag. You don't have to buy a 6-49 ticket just put the farm up for rent, and you've won the lotto.

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