No bids on pulse crops ...

[furrowtickler]

From the combine forum .
No bids on lentils and only limited tns of yellow peas .
As western Vickie was saying this is a big deal.
$6 peas for fall ? Lentil price to be slashed ?
May have to dive into soybeans a little more this year .

[Casered]

From the combine forum .
No bids on lentils and only limited tns of yellow peas .
As western Vickie was saying this is a big deal.
$6 peas for fall ? Lentil price to be slashed ?
May have to dive into soybeans a little more this year .

I'm locking the bins for a while maybe with next years crops too. If history searves me right it's just a matter of time till there are problems somewhere and lentils jump again. I wish I would have sold them all earlier . Hind sight is 20/20. I've seen it too many times in 24 to 36 months something usually happens to create a scare. Lentils are too unpredictable to produce big crops around the world 3 years in a row. I grow only reds so here's to gambling. I mean farming. Haha.

[westernvicki]

It is not just about yields, it is about increasing acres of pulses in general around the world, with more likely to come. The reality is, no one likes growing cheap barley, wheat or oats, and even at the current new crop bid for CWRS at 6.50$ a bushel (which (despite being at about 1974 levels) is not looking horrid, only because barley and oats are worse and just well, so much more horrible) a .20 cent lentil (which looks awful given our recent history) at average yields is still better deal (12.00$ x 30 bu = 360.00 which is a 55 bushel wheat crop).

So, talking like a grain buyer (which I am) and a grain trader (which I am) and a producer (which we are) the key to profit is knowing when to hold up, fold up, walk away and run.

The Indian crop will need to be assessed to get a better view, Canada will have a carry over of low quality and competitors aside, Canada will remain a principle supplier to the world. 2017 lesson is this: we are not the only producers in the world looking to subsidize cereals. Market accordingly.

[westernvicki]

PS

The fumigation issue will be resolved at some point, sooner or later.

Modi, appears to be a leader who has a vested interest in raising the stature of Indian as a nation and a country which can support trade and foreign investment. However, the management of the fumigation issue has the ability to put a fly (or a swarm of flies) in the face of this goal. This move has directly affected global trade, and existing contracts between business partners as cargo enroute is being resold, and rerouted. Indeed not a mark a trading nation should bear lightly.

India has had a goal to be self sufficient for years, the attainment of this goal is highly commendable, and insuring local markets for the local product is indeed part of the goal. As a rule, without non tariff trade barriers being imposed the local crop would reduce demand and lower prices allowing the local crop to enter the market, a process that would not halt trade. However, the failure to extend the fumigation exemption, has halted trade, at considerable cost to trading partners, and unabated will have consequences on how India is perceived as a trading nation.

Out of the cinders may come the diamonds: we have to hope that India will accept the status of a trading partner which enables trade, and respects the mutual benefit provided by negotiating in good faith a long term solution to the ongoing fumigation issue.

I have made many trips to this wonderful country of India, and have great appreciation for our long term trading partner: both & all have mutually benefited for decades. We value the diversity and opportunity that has and is provided, and as food producers, we respect the goal of self sufficiency, we just ask for fair trade, in exchange. "God Willing", as if often said in India the resolution will be forthcoming.

[furrowtickler]

Thx for the overview .
No doubt we are not the only producers in the world to increase pulse acres . But also India is not the only buyer of pulses in the world either .
Let's hope it gets resolved either way .
Pulse acres can be dropped very fast here. A lot of producers are doing just fine with cereal / canola .
Root rot may still be a nail in the coffin if trade irritants continue to erode profit margins in pulses. Rot root can be lived with but it's costly . Also too much rain in the 2 week period after seeding and nothing will help a total loss.
Let's just hope pulses stay somewhat profitable for everyone and not just a few.
Is it possible that India can really get self sufficient in pulses ? The population is exploding and land base in shrinking there is it not ?

[westernvicki]

To be clear, India imports a % of their consumption, the increased production expected reduces but will not eliminate demand. The evidence of expected increase in production seems apparent by the move to not extend the exemption on fumigation. However as we all know production is a precarious process, well noted by last years bumper crop in July that steadfastly refused to readily come to the table.