CGC Week 30 Canola Stats

[HappyFarmer]

Farmer deliveries

This week 337,300 mt
Last Week 406,300 mt
Year to Date 12,071,000 mt
Last Year to date: 10,616,000 mt

Exports

his week 332,400 mt
Last Week 158,600 mt
Year to Date 6,254,000 mt
Last Year to date: 5,659,000 mt

Domestic Use (Crush, etc,)
his week 180,200 mt
Last Week 170,600 mt
Year to Date 5,500,00 mt
Last Year to date: 4,915,000 mt

Demand is impressive....to say the least.

This is more proof that we need to hold the last of our supplies tight tight tight for a while longer. My thoughts are that the last thing you want to do right now is sell...either on a cash contract or a basis contract.

If we hold out i feel we are going to be well rewarded for it.

If you want to sell something...new crop is a way better play than selling more old crop.

[farming101]

If a lot of sales are already on the books I would agree. If a guy has a lot to sell yet you have to remember that some of the best offers for old crop have surfaced recently. Nothing wrong with letting a little go.

[farmaholic]

So about 2/3 way through supplies and only about 57% way through the crop year/marketing year. On our way to bare cupboards before new crop supplies become available in Sept?

How is spring threshed canola going to affect prices? How much of the estimated supplies left out in the field is going to be "salvaged"....how much will be left(what amount is lost) of the estimated crop left out, and of that, how much will be harvested(as opposed to burnt)? What about quality issues of spring threshed canola?

[farming101]

Spring threshed or destroyed canola crops are a gray area.
It seems likely it has the potential to mess up carryover calculations

[farmaholic]

Gray in more than one way. Then full of shit too....supply numbers and mouse poop.

[crusher]

I'm not as bullish as Happy Farmer and therefore like to take decent profits when possible. If you believe there is so much strength in old crop, why is the July/Nov spread shrinking? I still have 1/3 of old crop to sell in case it pokes through heavy resistance.

[farmaholic]

July/Nov closed $22/t apart, what is traditional spread? . Nov shot past it's two most recent highs while July still didn't break it's last two recent highs (stay tuned). Maybe they're playing hard to get on the near by while trying to secure supplies further out for fall delivery.

Maybe the market woke up hungry in January, was fed well enough then went to sleep until it woke up hungry again...rinse and repeat.

What do I know? Uneducated "opinion"!

101...could you please throw July and Nov on a chart.

[Partners]

The low snow amount so far and early melt is helping the quality of unharvested..
Heard the alberta stuff that is combined lately looks good..sure there is yield loss..

For some reason our Feb. Contract to RP yorkton is not picked up yet..guess to much was bought..crusher full?

[Guest]

So about 2/3 way through supplies and only about 57% way through the crop year/marketing year. On our way to bare cupboards before new crop supplies become available in Sept?

How is spring threshed canola going to affect prices? How much of the estimated supplies left out in the field is going to be "salvaged"....how much will be left(what amount is lost) of the estimated crop left out, and of that, how much will be harvested(as opposed to burnt)? What about quality issues of spring threshed canola?

But ... when the time comes stats can will report a big bullshit carryover. Cant win at this game

[Guest]

The low snow amount so far and early melt is helping the quality of unharvested..
Heard the alberta stuff that is combined lately looks good..sure there is yield loss..

For some reason our Feb. Contract to RP yorkton is not picked up yet..guess to much was bought..crusher full?

Niether is our feb contract to p and h . Saying no cars. Same with feb #1 hrsw to dreyfuss . One guy here saying hasnt been able to del dec contract canola to dreyfus either. So no cars or no sales ??

[wmoebis]

Niether is our feb contract to p and h . Saying no cars. Same with feb #1 hrsw to dreyfuss . One guy here saying hasnt been able to del dec contract canola to dreyfus either. So no cars or no sales ??

Don't think it is due to lack of grain cars. https://www.grainews.ca/2017/02/22/too-many-grain-cars-left-out-in-the-cold/

[farming101]

Caseih, it's called flattening demand. Great for railroads.

[wmoebis]

Caseih, it's called flattening demand. Great for railroads.

Then why are the Grain Co's saying it's because of no cars?

You saying they haven't moved any grain at all to make room for it, they knew it was coming when contracts were signed.

[Partners]

I understand blame it on no cars..but direct to crusher?
Bunge never has any issues for us..always on time..same with viterra..ours always goes in the signed month.
RP is playing with farmers minds.

[farming101]

Wm, no what I meant was the railways try to even out the work load and also have grain movement coordinate with their total traffic forecasts

Flattening demand is reducing the difference between peaks and troughs